Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals
Brewers (+104), Nationals (-122)
Total: 9.0 runs
Brett Anderson (L) vs. Jon Lester (L)
This one gets marked the matchup of two veteran southpaws that are in the twilights of their career. Neither one is striking out many hurlers, and both are essentially innings-eaters at this point time. Both have a sub-20% strikeout rate this season. In hitter friendly Washington, this one could be all kinds of ugly.
Best bets: The OVER. Before this line moves, nab it.
Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox
Marlins (+144), Red Sox (-172)
Total: 8.5 runs
Cody Poteet (R) vs. Martín Pérez (L)
This is an interesting matchup of two pitchers definitely in different phases of their careers. Cody Poteet has been thrust into a role as Sixto Sánchez is still injured from an early shoulder issue. Martín Pérez has given the rotation a much-needed boost for Boston; while he hasn’t been an ace in recent years, he has been really good lately thanks to a repertoire change to throw more sliders.
Best bets: The Marlins just cannot hit, and Boston can. I would take a F5 Boston bet and even consider some fun alternate lines here.
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
Blue Jays (-158), Indians (+134)
Total: 8.0 runs
Hyun Jin Ryu (L) vs. Eli Morgan (R)
As if Zach Plesac wasn’t dumb enough breaking and basically flaunting his disdain for COVID-19 protocols last season, breaking his thumb on his pitching hand “aggressively” taking his shirt off is just a whole new level of stupid. That puts rookie Eli Morgan in the spotlight, who has never pitched in the majors. That generally spells trouble.
Best bets: I like the Blue Jays moneyline and even some prop bets around Ryu.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Yankees (-250), Tigers (+205)
Total: 7.0 runs
Gerrit Cole (R) vs. Casey Mize (R)
This one looks ugly, but the reality is that Casey Mize has been a bit better recently. I still don’t think that means the Tigers can take this game — Cole has been outstanding. Over 64.2 innings pitched, he’s whiffed 92 batters with a 0.80 WHIP. Oh, and the Tigers offense? They lead the league in strikeout rate (28.8%), and they sport a .288 wOBA.
Best bets: Hard bet on the Yankees here (F5, moneyline) and I would take a small splash at Cole strikeouts over 8.5.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Braves (-158), Mets (+134)
Total: 7.0 runs
Ian Anderson (R) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)
It’s going to be interesting to see how the Braves handle the news of Marcell Ozuna dislocating two of his fingers — it appears that he is going to miss 4-6 weeks at a minimum. Eek. And somehow, despite the Mets running out a Triple-A lineup, the Mets are in first place of the NL East. Ian Anderson has kept the walks in check and has been brilliant for Atlanta.
Best bets: Simply due to all of the injuries, this screams for Braves betting — including probably something on Ian Anderson. He’s whiffed six or more in six starts this season.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Orioles (+190), White Sox (-230)
Total: 8.5 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)
The Orioles are so desperate for starting pitching that they continue to roll out 6.06 ERA Matt Harvey. Now, his 4.34 FIP indicates he has been pitching a lot better — but that’s mostly due to a hefty ground-ball rate. Harvey is only whiffing 17.5% of batters this season, and an 8.2% swinging-strike rate doesn’t show that more strikeouts are coming.
Best bets: The White Sox took game one of the series, and I’d expect them to pound Harvey. I think they may crash the over here themselves.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Royals (+154), Twins (-184)
Total: 9.0 runs
Kris Bubic (L) vs. Randy Dobnak (R)
If the Royals can consistently get starting pitching performances like the one Kris Bubic gave them last time out, they are gonna be tough. Bubic has been solid in his rotation stint — over 23.2 innings, he’s struck out 17 batters and logged a scintillating 1.14 WHIP. He likely faces his toughest test of the 2021 season in the veteran Twins, so I am curious to see how this shakes out.
Best bets: While Bubic has been good, the veteran Twins lineup and a poor pitching Randy Dobnak (4.84 FIP) lead me to believe runs will be had.
San Diego Padres at Houston Astros
Padres (+100), Astros (-118)
Total: 8.5 runs
Dinelson Lamet (R) vs. Framber Valdez (L)
Who goes deeper into this game — the ticking time bomb of Dinelson Lamet, who is nursing a balky right elbow with PRP injections? Or Framber Valdez, who returns to the rotation (like teammate Jake Odorizzi will do on Sunday) following an injury? These are two of the game’s best offenses and I expect both pitchers to get beat up here.
Best bets: I don’t see many scenarios where the over doesn’t get pounded here. Even consider an alt line or a total runs line through five innings.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Angels (+120), Athletics (-142)
Total: 7.5 runs
Shohei Ohtani (R) vs. Sean Manaea (L)
It’s officially Shohei Ohtani day! In a season filled with bizarre moments already, Ohtani was not available to pitch Thursday because *checks notes* there was traffic that made him miss out on his normal pitching routine? That’s a bit odd, but let’s roll with it. Sean Manaea, meanwhile, has been a bit up-and-down this season. He had a nasty start a week ago with only one earned run — but he’s logged a 1.31 WHIP due to continued command issues.
Best bets: This one comes down to how deep Ohtani works into the game. The Angels have the league’s second-worst team ERA in the bullpen — if he lasts only 4.2 innings like last time, the over is definitely in play.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Cardinals (+114), Diamondbacks (-134)
Total: 9.5 runs
Johan Oviedo (R) vs. Madison Bumgarner (L)
This game works to the Cardinals favor — while they are a very average offense in general, they turn into the Incredible Hulk against lefties — a .333 wOBA and 115 wRC+ are marks that clock them in fifth-best in the league. And with Tyler O'Neill back in the fold, this offense does seem to hum a bit better. Johan Oviedo steps into a rotation spot with Miles Mikolas suffering continued issues via a forearm strain.
Best bets: I am probably staying away altogether here, but one bet that intrigues me is a Cardinals F5 bet. Bumgarner had appeared to be turning a corner, but in his last two starts spanning 10 innings, he’s been slammed for seven earned runs.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Giants (+168), Dodgers (-200)
Total: 7.5 runs
Anthony DeSclafani (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)
There are three powerhouse teams in the NL West this season — the Padres and Dodgers like we all expected, who are a combined +156 in run differential, and the Giants, who are 30-20 and also playing some good baseball. To try and keep pace, they will turn to Tony Disco to shut down this struggling Dodger offense — although we know the pitching will be excellent. They turn to one member of the three headed monster in Buehler, who’s posted a 2.78 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 55.1 IP.
Best bets: DeAclafani has been solid, but this feels like an ugly mismatch. He’s been obliterated over the last two weeks, recording a 10.24 ERA. Take the Dodgers moneyline or think about a same game parlay with some Dodger bets.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Rangers (+104), Mariners (-122)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jordan Lyles (R) vs. Justus Sheffield (L)
For the love of all that’s holy, Jarred Kelenic, can you please start smashing the baseball? Down to a .146 batting average, maybe the young star is putting too much pressure on himself. Using wRC+ as our barometer, these are two poor offenses — the Rangers are slightly better (95, league average is 100), but Seattle has stunk (85). These are also two teams that whiff a lot — the Rangers at 25.9% and the Mariners at 26.3%, respectively.
Best bets: These offenses stink, and both pitchers have been torched as of late. Sheffield has not whiffed more than five batters in five consecutive starts. Lyles has a 5.94 ERA in 50 innings pitched. It may seem crazy, but take the over.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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