Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
We’re back again for this week’s fantasy baseball Double Dip — highlighting pitchers making two starts in a week. Some of the plays may be obvious — you don’t need me telling you that when Jacob deGrom is starting twice, a 1,000-word soliloquy highlighting why it’s a good idea to start him. You just do it.
But volume is key, especially two-start-pitcher volume. This column aims to identify all the two start hurlers, the ones that are no-brainers, the ones that are avoids, and most importantly, focus on the tough-to-call decisions.
Each week, I’ll do my best to highlight some of those tricky arms, and what could come your way.
All of the two-steppers (23)
- Jon Duplantier, AZ (at OAK, vs LAA)
- Drew Smyly, ATL (at PHI, at MIA)
- Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs MIA, vs TOR)
- Martín Pérez, BOS (vs HOU, vs TOR)
- Adbert Alzolay, CHC (at SD, vs STL)
- Sonny Gray, CIN (vs MIL, vs COL)
- Shane Bieber, CLE (at STL, vs SEA)
- Antonio Senzatela, COL (at MIN, at CIN)
- Dylan Cease, CHW (vs TOR, at DET)
- Matthew Boyd, DET (vs SEA, vs CHW)
- Framber Valdez, HOU (at BOS, at MIN)
- Ervin Santana, KC (at LAA, at OAK)
- Kris Bubic, KC (at LAA, at OAK)
- Tony Gonsolin, LAD (at PIT, vs TEX)
- Pablo López, MIA (at BOS, vs ATL)
- Daniel Castano, MIA (vs COL, vs ATL)
- Randy Dobnak, MIN (vs NYY, vs HOU)
- Chris Bassitt, OAK (vs AZ, vs KC)
- JT Brubaker, PIT (vs LAD, at MIL)
- Alex Wood, SF (at TEX, at WAS)
- Carlos Martínez, STL (vs CLE, at CHC)
- Robbie Ray, TOR (at CWS, at BOS)
- Jon Lester, WAS (at TB, vs SF)
The no-brainers (16)
This group should definitely be in your starting lineup — whether it’s due to matchup or just sheer brilliance, don’t overthink this one. This is a larger group than regular, mostly due to excellent matchups.
- Drew Smyly, ATL (at PHI, at MIA)
- Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs MIA, vs TOR)
- Martín Pérez, BOS (vs HOU, vs TOR)
- Adbert Alzolay, CHC (at SD, vs STL)
- Sonny Gray, CIN (vs MIL, vs COL)
- Shane Bieber, CLE (at STL, vs SEA)
- Dylan Cease, CHW (vs TOR, at DET)
- Matthew Boyd, DET (vs SEA, vs CHW)
- Framber Valdez, HOU (at BOS, at MIN)
- Kris Bubic, KC (at LAA, at OAK)
- Tony Gonsolin, LAD (at PIT, vs TEX)
- Pablo López, MIA (at BOS, vs ATL)
- Chris Bassitt, OAK (vs AZ, vs KC)
- JT Brubaker, PIT (vs LAD, at MIL)
- Alex Wood, SF (at TEX, at WAS)
- Robbie Ray, TOR (at CWS, at BOS)
The run-and-hides (4)
This group should only be started out of pure desperation — the volume is nice, and it definitely could end up working out for you, but starting these hurlers is a real gamble.
- Jon Duplantier, AZ (at OAK, vs LAA)
- Antonio Senzatela, COL (at MIN, at CIN)
- Ervin Santana, KC (at LAA, at OAK)
- Randy Dobnak, MIN (vs NYY, vs HOU)
The meat and potatoes (3)
This group is one that takes a bit more thinking — the volume is nice, but the matchup could be tricky. Is it worth taking the risk on a questionable start for what could be some juicy fantasy goodness? Let’s dig in and find out.
And since they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I am going to use a similar rating scale that Clay Link and Todd Zola do over at Rotowire — if I was playing in five fantasy baseball leagues, how many would I feel comfortable starting this hurler? Using that as our barometer, we should be able to appropriately deem the risk and reward that’s available if you so choose to start this arm. Keep in mind — your league and team context are always key. I’m using a 12-team NFBC Online Championship format as my primary backdrop.
- Daniel Castano, MIA (vs. COL, vs. ATL, 0%) — TWO LEAGUES OUT OF FIVE: This is getting pretty dire in Miami. Elieser Hernandez, in his first start back from the 60-day Injured List, suffered a hamstring injury crossing home plate. They will now turn to Daniel Castano to help the team, and the results have been middling at best. He has yet to record better than a 9.00 K/9 so far in his career in any individual stop, and the second matchup against the Braves will be particularly challenging.
- Carlos Martínez, STL (vs. CLE, at CHC, 31%) — THREE: Rostering Carlos Martínez this week was utterly maddening. He put up, quite possibly, the single worst individual starting pitching performance of the season, recording only two outs while allowing 10 baserunners and 10 earned runs. Yowza. Martinez has been outperforming advanced metrics due to an utter lack of swinging strikes, and it burned him in his last outing. The first matchup against Cleveland isn’t scary, but the second one, against a top-10 Cubs offense, is frightening.
- Jon Lester, WAS (at TB, vs. SF, 2%) — TWO: In 2021, Jon Lester has been doing Jon Lester things — he gets a lot of ground-balls thanks to a heavy fastball-cutter combo (64% of his pitch mix), but not a whole lot of strikeouts. But things are trending in the wrong direction with a 16.9% strikeout rate and an elevated 9.0% walk rate. The other challenge in rostering Lester? He is averaging five innings per start this season. Tampa struggles against left-handed pitching, but the Giants clock in with only an 18.9% strikeout rate in the split.
