Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate. My preferred StatHero lineup to attack will be the Overnight 6v6. Follow me on Twitter to see my exact lineup.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Yoán Moncada, Chicago White Sox
Moncada and the White Sox really struggled on their road trip losing five of their seven games while Moncada recorded just three hits. Returning back to Guaranteed Rate Field is a big deal because he has been astronomically better at home this season (.386 wOBA, .182 ISO, 150 wRC+ at home vs. .312 wOBA, .090 ISO, 98 wRC+ on the road). He also has a great matchup against J.C. Mejia who has allowed 21 earned runs and seven homers in his last 17 innings pitched over four starts. Mejia has struggled against left-handed hitters allowing a .429 wOBA, .327 ISO and 40% hard contact rate. $9,600 is a steal for Moncada in my opinion.
Akil Baddoo, Baltimore Orioles
Matt Harvey has somehow pitched well in back-to-back starts without allowing a run through 12 innings. I’m not buying it because he has given up 65 earned runs on the season, seventh most in baseball. Since 2019 Harvey is allowing a .376 wOBA, .231 ISO and 42.5% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Baddoo has had a very solid season and with almost all of his success coming against right-handed pitcher with a .401 wOBA, .283 ISO and 36.4% hard contact rate. I wish he was cheaper than $12,200 so he was easier to get into lineups, but I’ll most likely be eating the bullet.
StatHero flex picks
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles
The inconsistency expected of a young starting pitcher has shown up for Tarik Skubal. Right-handed hitters have enjoyed a lot of success against Skubal with a .352 wOBA, .271 ISO and 38.1% hard contact rate in his career. Mancini has had a very good season and is a true lefty killer with a .386 wOBA, .278 ISO and 38% hard contact rate since 2019. $10,500 is a very fair price to get him in your lineup.
Miguel Sanó, Minnesota Twins
He may finally be heating up with hits in three straight games including two home runs in one of the craziest games in baseball history on Wednesday between the Tigers and Twins. Now Sano gets to face lefty Wade LeBlanc who has allowed 18 hits and seven earned runs in his last 12 innings pitched over three starts. Sano crushes left-handed pitching with a .330 wOBA, .248 ISO and an insane 51% hard contact rate since 2019. In that same time frame LeBlanc is allowing a .365 wOBA and .224 ISO to right-handed hitters.
Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
A more well-rounded hitter wjo strikes out less than Sano, Donaldson provides a safer floor with just as high of a ceiling however you have to pay $1,200 more. Since 2019, Donaldson has a .367 wOBA, .233 ISO and 49% hard contact rate against left-handed pitchers. He has found success against LeBlanc before, going 4-11 with two home runs.
Brad Miller, Philadelphia Phillies
Wil Crowe has really struggled over the last two months giving up 26 earned runs and 10 homers in his last 38.2 innings pitched. Left-handed hitters have been a major reason for this. Crowe is allowing a .371 wOBA, .232 ISO and 36.8% hard contact rate to lefties since 2019. Miller still has yet to really get it going but did hit a walk-off grand slam Thursday that could really energize him and the Phillies. I really like his upside at $9,300.
Teoscar Hernández, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are finally going back home to the Rogers Centre, which is a great hitters ballpark where the ball really carries. It will be fun to watch this loaded offense in that environment. Hernandez has had a great season earning his first career All-Star appearance and has been fantastic against left-handed pitching (.382 wOBA, .295 ISO, 44.1% hard contact rate since 2019). Royals rookie starting pitcher Daniel Lynch is coming off a great start pitching eight scoreless innings against the Tigers but before that had given up 14 earned runs in the other eight innings he pitched. Although a small sample size, Lynch has allowed a .400 wOBA, .186 ISO and 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Being shockingly cheap at $9,400 is what brings Ohtani on my radar more than anything else. I don’t love the matchup with Chris Bassitt but he has been beaten up for 14 earned runs, six homers and 23 hits in his last four starts. Ohtani has one of the safest floors every night and just as high of a ceiling as anyone with his power and speed combination that can bring stolen bases as well.
StatHero sleepers/values
Brian Goodwin, Chicago White Sox
I usually try to keep these players under $8,000 but there really weren’t any that jumped out at me. Sure, there are some I could make a case for, but I want it to be stronger than that so I’m going above $8,000. We already know why we want to attack Mejia with lefties, so I’ll focus on Goodwin. Since 2019 he has done very well against right-handed pitching with a .337 wOBA, .208 ISO and 38.1% hard contact rate. He’s been even better than that if you just factor in this season so assuming he makes the lineup, I love the price of $8,300.
Eduardo Escobar, Milwaukee Brewers
Escobar is in a great spot to prove himself to his new team and I love his price of $8,100. Touki Toussaint is coming off an awesome start allowing one run in seven innings while striking out 10. He is throwing his sinker way more now than previously in his career that looked way different than his last outing. Escobar is crushing sinkers this season with a .370 wOBA, .224 ISO and 136 wRC+. Since 2019 Toussaint is allowing a .422 wOBA, .273 ISO and 39.6% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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