Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
Cruz is off to a bit of a slow start this month, but he has arguably the best matchup he could get. Tarik Skubal really struggles to get right-handed hitters out, giving up a .404 wOBA and .363 ISO with a whopping 60.3% fly ball rate. He’s also given up eight home runs already this season, tied for the fifth most in MLB. Cruz has hit three of his eight home runs this season against Tigers pitching, all off different pitchers so he should be extra confident stepping into the box.
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
Stanton is on absolute fire, hitting home runs in three straight games and raising his average from .180 to .312 during a 12-game hitting streak. Patrick Corbin pitched well in his last start but has still given up seven home runs on the season and it won’t get any easier keeping the ball in the park in Yankee Stadium. Stanton has got the best of Corbin when they matchup, going 6-18 with two doubles and two home runs.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Matt Harvey is primarily throwing his fastball and slider, combining for 82.3% of his pitches this season. It appears this strategy has worked relatively well for Harvey so far, but I don’t think it will against Devers since he crushes both pitches with an ISO over .200 and wRC+ over 120. Plus, Devers homered in his first at-bat against Harvey April 8.
StatHero flex pick
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
After a tremendous April of dominance, Buxton is starting to slow down a bit. Now he gets a chance to get back on track against Skubal. Buxton is a great hitter against lefties, with a .356 wOBA and .232 ISO. Plus, the Tigers bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season, allowing the highest HR/FB rate (20.3%) and the third-highest barrel percentage (11.4%).
Ramón Laureano, Oakland Athletics
Laureano is off to a super-hot start in May, going 9-22 with four home runs. Rich Hill gave up four runs in each of his first four games but has gotten back on track in his last two. Hill is still primarily throwing his fastball and curveball, this season for a combined 86% of the time. Laureano has figured out how to hit a curveball with a 140 wRC+ over the last 144 curveballs he has faced. He also crushes left-handed pitching with a career .359 wOBA, .215 ISO and 42.3% hard contact rate.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
The batting average still isn’t there, but the power numbers are with seven home runs this season. Zach Eflin has been solid this season, but left-handed hitters are still finding ways to get it done against him (.364 wOBA, .179 ISO). Eflin is also a fly ball pitcher that has given up 21 more fly balls than ground balls this season. Freeman has the platoon advantage, a matchup with a fly ball pitcher, and Truist Park is great for left-handed power hitters.
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
Griffin Canning has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career, so I’d prefer to attack him with righties. Smith has shown he can hit right-handed pitching very well with a .417 wOBA, .356 ISO, and a 42.9% hard contact. Canning is a fly ball pitcher as well who has given up six home runs in five starts.
StatHero sleeper
Andrelton Simmons, Minnesota Twins
The cheapest Twins hitter available on StatHero is a good play with the aforementioned struggles of Skubal and the Tigers bullpen. It’s been a bit of a struggle for Simmons this season, but since 2018 he has been a good hitter against left-handed pitching (.334 wOBA, 111 wRC+).
Jesús Aguilar, Miami Marlins
Lefty Brent Suter is getting the start, but this should be a bullpen game for the Brewers. Aguilar is cheap at just $7,600 and should get at least one at-bat against the lefty. He has hit left-handed pitching very well since 2018 with a .356 wOBA, .216 ISO, and 39.3% hard contact rate. The Brewers bullpen is fresh, but they have struggled some this season allowing the fourth-highest hard contact rate (35.9%) and the seventh-highest walk rate (11.7%).
Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants
A tough matchup with Blake Snell brings Longoria’s price down ($7,100) and makes him a serious sleeper. Historically a great hitter against left-handed pitching. Going back to 2018, he has a .361 wOBA, .227 ISO and 44.8% hard contact rate.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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