Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts, so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
It’s almost impossible to pick between Stanton and Aaron Judge, but I’m going with Stanton since he has three multi-hit games in a row. He absolutely destroys left-handed pitching and Tarik Skubal has not gotten any better as the season goes on. It’s a small sample, but Skubal is giving up a .388 wOBA, a whopping .331 ISO and an insanely high 61.9% fly ball rate to right-handed hitters.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
One of the toughest outs in baseball becomes even tougher when he faces a lefty. Robbie Ray gets to deal with that Friday night, and it won’t be easy considering he’s given up a lot of hard contact (43.8%), fly balls (42%) and power (.216 ISO) to right-handed hitters since 2018. Plus, Acuña get’s to hit in that minor league ballpark the Blue Jays call “home” this season.
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
He just let us down on Wednesday, but he did walk and score a run so it was not completely wasted. Madison Bumgarner is coming off his seven-inning no-hitter of the Braves, but I’m trusting the long-term numbers and going back to Story. As mentioned on Wednesday, he still hits left-handed pitching well outside of Coors (.370 wOBA, .211 ISO, 47.9% hard contact). Since 2018, Bumgarner is giving up 45.1% hard contact and a .203 ISO to right-handed hitters.
StatHero flex pick
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
He’s been one of the best hitters in the National League this season but feels like he’s been flying under the radar with the Cubs’ struggles on offense. He’s one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching in baseball even though Wade Miley has had a great start to the season. Miley is throwing his cutter and changeup more than ever, but Bryant has always hit both pitches well. Bryant has also had success against him head-to-head, going 6-for-14 with a double and a home run.
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
It’s safe to say every Yankees hitter is in play today going against Skubal. Torres continues to struggle at the dish, but he’s starting to get right, collecting a hit in seven of his last nine games. Lefties have not been kind to him this season, but he has hit them very well throughout his career (.360 wOBA, .255 ISO, 40.4% hard contact).
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
He’s been in a big slump but is starting to come out of it with home runs in back-to-back games. Now he gets to go to the tiny ballpark previously mentioned with the platoon advantage against Ray, whose struggles against right-handed pitching are mentioned above as well. Ozuna crushes left-handed pitching with a 47.7% hard contact rate that’s actually higher than Acuña’s.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
He finally made his debut but didn’t record a hit and now gets to face a familiar foe in Drew Smyly who has given up 12 earned runs in 15 innings this season, including six home runs. Since 2018, Springer is roughing up lefties with a .364 wOBA, .217 ISO, and 39.4% hard contact. Springer has gotten the best of him in their previous matchups, going 5-for-11 with three doubles and two home runs.
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners
If you don’t like risk, then this won’t be a pick for you as he might not be in the lineup. He’s missed the last two games with an undisclosed injury but is considered day-to-day. Opposing starter Andrew Heaney gives up a lot of hard contact and fly balls to right-handed hitters. Haniger hits all of Heaney’s pitches well and has had success against him in his career going 5-for-16 with a triple and two home runs.
StatHero sleeper
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Someone I personally don’t consider a sleeper but is priced as a sleeper on StatHero at $7,700 most likely because he only has two hits in his last 11 games. Freddy Peralta gives up a lot of hard contact and a ton of fly balls to left-handed hitters. Since 2018, Muncy is crushing righties with a .380 wOBA, .279 ISO and 44.4% hard contact rate.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Another Braves hitter to attack Robbie Ray with, but only $8,200 so great value if you don’t want to pay up for Acuña or Ozuna. He’s riding a bit of a hot streak, collecting eight hits in his last four games. He also has the highest ISO against lefties on the Braves at .302.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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