Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate with all 15 games.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
This is going to feel familiar, especially today, with a lot of lefties on the mound. Everyone knows Cruz crushes lefties, and he’s already hit three career home runs off Andrew Heaney. Give me the guy with the ridiculous track record against left-handed pitching and a 1.226 OPS this season.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Opposing pitcher Lewis Thorpe has really struggled in his short career (.397 wOBA, .201 ISO, 39.8% hard contact vs. right-handed hitters). His velocity was up during spring training, but I’ll trust the previous numbers and the talent of Trout. Not to mention Trout has recorded a hit in every game but two this season.
Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
The next lefty masher on the MVP list facing Ryan Weathers, who is making his first career start. He has good stuff but has yet to go up against a team preparing to hit him or anyone nearly as good as Turner. He is also on fire, collecting at least two hits in four of his last five games, including back-to-back games with a home run.
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
Soto is the MVP you would also be facing so you could negate that by putting him in yourself. I don’t hate it since Soto has been hot and Taylor Widener has really struggled against lefties. It is a small sample, but the numbers are very high (.418 wOBA, .334 ISO, 47.6% fly ball rate).
StatHero flex pick
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Dylan Cease is not good against left-handed batters (.378 wOBA, .251 ISO). Devers has cooled off some recently, but his five home runs this season are tied for the fourth in all of baseball. The weather looks pretty bleak so keep an eye on it, but the matchup is there for Devers.
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
Finally starting to get going, Olson went deep Thursday night for the second time in four games. José Ureña has yet to pitch into the fifth inning this season, partially thanks to an insanely high 24% walk rate. He gives up a lot of hard contact (41.5% since 2018) to left-handed hitters and Olson feasts on right handed pitching to the tune of a .255 ISO and 49% hard contact since 2018. With all the free passes there could be a lot of runners on base to drive in.
Gary Sánchez, New York Yankees
Michael Wacha gives up a lot of hard contact but induces a lot of ground balls, so I prefer to target him with a fly ball hitter. Sánchez is just that. He has one of the highest fly ball rates (43.6%) against right-handed pitching on the Yankees.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
He has really struggled so far this season but there’s no better place to get back on track than Coors Field. Chi Chi González is a decent pitcher but he’s yet to make a start at Coors this season. In his last start at the Giants, he gave up 12 fly balls in five innings. If he gives up that many in Coors, I’d be willing to bet at least two are home runs. Alonso has the highest fly ball rate against right-handed pitching on the Mets.
Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians
Opposing pitcher Jeff Hoffman has started fairly well this season, limiting the damage in his short outings. You might be thinking that is because he is no longer on the Rockies and can avoid pitching in Coors. Even when he was on the Rockies, he was still away from Coors so I’m looking to attack him. Reyes is arguably the best pure power hitter on the Indians with a .241 ISO and almost 45% hard contact vs. right-handed pitching since 2018.
StatHero sleeper
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter is off to an absolutely horrid start to the season, but he’s in a good spot here against Zach Eflin, who struggles mightily vs. left-handed hitters (.359 wOBA, .239 ISO since 2018). If Carpenter can find some of his old form, he might be able to get back on track. He used to crush right-handed pitching with a 44.8% hard contact rate since 2018.
Eric Sogard, Chicago Cubs
Sogard hasn’t found much success yet this season, but he might have his best chance to date going up against Kyle Wright. Lefties have not been friendly to Wright in his career (.412 wOBA, 40% hard contact, .271 ISO). If you need to save some salary, he is one of the cheapest on StatHero (at the time of writing this since salaries change) and in a great matchup.
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