Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory (Week 7)

We’re now seven weeks into the fantasy baseball season. That means we’ve passed the quarter mark. I’d still advocate patience, but it’s now a 20-week season as opposed to a 27-week season. You might have some tough calls on your roster to make. Or maybe you’re sitting pretty and want to ride the wave.

Whatever best describes your situation, I’m here to help. Pitchers are still getting blown up at an alarming rate. If your ratios are still pristine, consider yourself like Zac Gallen in the midst of another scoreless innings streak. It’s going to end at some point. The question is, when?

I promise you, there are some nerds in the lab trying to make those predictions. There are metrics buried deep in the depths of Steamer hell that might paint a dismal picture for your “ace” currently sporting a sub-3.00 ERA. But if you’re one of those people who get headaches at the thought of predicting positive/negative regression, you’re in the right place. 

Because remember…

Making smart decisions in fantasy baseball doesn’t always have to be based on data. Every other week, I’ll take you through my thought process on how to attack this week’s MLB slate and beyond. The ideas in this series will be fluid. My goal is to keep things fresh so you keep coming back for more. It won’t always be about the NFBC either. If you’re in a H2H points league (like me), I’ve got your back too – especially this week!

Game Theory Week 5 in Review

I’m all about transparency. Most analysts put out great content, but rarely do they go back to review their past takes and “grade” themselves. It’s the best way to hold yourself accountable and review your own personal process. So every other week, I’ll set aside a few paragraphs to review the advice I gave to fantasy mangers two weeks ago. Here’s what I discussed back in Week 5.

If you’re a loyal reader, perhaps you know the answer to this already. It’s not a trick question. There wasn’t any “actionable” advice last time to review. We discussed utilizing a carousel spot on your H2H points league roster to increase flexibility. That flexibility is perhaps more valuable than ever this season with pitchers dropping like flies and getting smacked around more than usual. It’s something to remember as the season progresses. But there’s nothing to “grade” this week. So let’s move ahead.

Buy-Low/Sell-High Candidates

It’s everyone’s favorite segment. Everyone wants to buy low on struggling players and sell high on overachieving ones. But most managers never actually do it. That’s because it’s human nature to hold onto things that make you feel “comfortable.” Conversely, we want to distance ourselves from things that make us uncomfortable or emotional.

So who are the players I’m putting my reputation on to buy low and sell high? I’ll discuss that below. It will also give us some interesting material to review in the coming weeks. I promised never to bore you with advanced statistics, so I did that work myself when crafting this list.

Buy Low

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles – Rodriguez is missing bats at an elite clip. The problem is, every batted ball is apparently leaving the yard or finding grass. Once the BABIP and HR/9 numbers stabilize, you should have a guy with plus stuff in a pitcher’s park and some win equity. See if any managers are growing impatient.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds – If you thought Rodriguez’ luck was bad, check out some of the numbers on Lodolo. Sheesh. He’s surrendering home run balls like the guy who throws to Pete Alonso at the Home Run Derby. Allow me to present just one advanced metric: He’s allowing a .435 BABIP! Basically every hitter that faces Lodolo turns into Luis Arraez but with Barry Bonds-like power. Aside from that, his metrics are eerily similar to last season’s breakout. Go get him now.

Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays – I wish Varsho hadn’t had such a great Week 6. Can you believe I actually picked him up off waivers in my home league prior to last week? That’s how frustrated some managers are with Varsho. But the reality is, he’s catcher eligible and gets virtually no days off. He plays in the outfield and hits in the middle of the Toronto order. He’s walking at a higher rate and surprisingly striking out at a lower rate than last season when he was a breakout player.

Josh Bell, Cleveland Guardians – Bell got off to such a horrific start, but I’ve seen some signs of life recently. It hasn’t helped that the entire Guardians team has gone into a power drought. But Bell is still making decently hard contact, sporting a career-high walk rate and is still below a 20% K rate. I’m always interested in buying low on players who hit in the middle of the order – especially a guy like Bell, who’s behind hitting maestros Steven Kwan and José Ramírez.

Sell High

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs – This one hurts me, because he was on nearly every sleeper list of mine. But the reality is, Steele’s value will never be higher. He’s not going to maintain a 1.82 ERA the whole season. If you have Steele, the good news is you’ve already gotten stellar production through the first quarter of the season. The better news is, you might be able to flip him to a manager who sees the sparkling ERA and starts drooling like Pavlov’s dog. Steele is keeping the ball in the yard at an unsustainable rate, sporting a career-high strand rate and career-lows in BABIP and K/9. It’s almost a stone-cold guarantee that he regresses. See if you can land a struggling ace or top-line bat for the southpaw.

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves – Last September, I sat in the upper deck of MetLife Stadium to see the New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. I was also locked into an epic championship matchup in my H2H home league and needed a big start from Bryce Elder as a streamer. He responded with a complete-game shutout of the Washington Nationals and essentially put my matchup away. Thanks Bryce, I’ll always appreciate your services. But I’m tossing you onto the sell-high list. Elder is going to get smacked around soon. Don’t be the guy who holds onto him too long. 

Honorable mention pitchers: Shane Bieber (CLE), Yusei Kikuchi (TOR), Seth Lugo (SD)

Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks – Not really a big name, but some managers might be desperate for shortstops at a thin position. He’s been so good statistically that perhaps someone will bite. He’s been a valuable player for the Snakes, but I doubt he’ll be in the running for your fantasy team’s MVP come June or July.

Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays – Maybe I’m clouded by the fact I had Chapman on my fade list. He definitely used that as fuel this offseason, because he was unstoppable the first month of the season. It seems like such simple advice, but Chapman’s value will never be higher. I don’t see him going from a seasonal .220 hitter to a .350 hitter based on pure merit. Hop off the Chapman train.

Week 7 Game Theory: When to Panic About Categories

As mentioned above, we’re over a quarter of the way through the fantasy baseball season. You probably know which categories you’re strong in and where you’re weak. I know my NFBC squad is especially strong in the hitting department. My pitching is dragging me down, although I’m still second in the standings and hovering around the top 100 overall. This week’s question is: When should you go full panic mode about certain categories?

I still don’t believe we’re at that point. Let me use my team as an example, since many of us are likely in the same boat with poor pitching ratios.

A few weeks back, I looked at the standings and saw I was near the bottom in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. I was middle of the pack in saves and (somehow) near the top in wins. Emotionally, after watching so many of my pitchers blow up, my brain was saying, “Forget about your ratios, Adam, just hunt strikeouts and wins. Your pitchers are just awful, and that won’t change.”

That’s a dangerous way to think, especially this early in the season. I don’t care how bad your starters have been. There are ways to creatively address multiple weaknesses and still remain strong elsewhere. Here’s how I’ve attacked it (so far).

I knew I had to improve my ratios. Instead of throwing caution to the wind and deploying as many two-start gas cans as possible in order to chase strikeouts/wins, I made some cheap FAAB acquisitions of Brusdar Graterol and Yennier Cano. I tossed them into my starting lineup, which also included relievers Carlos Estévez and Ryan Helsley.

My thought process was this: Good relievers typically help chip away at ratios, because they have great stuff and can go max-effort in short spurts. I’d be giving up some innings in exchange for helping my ratios and potentially increasing saves. Well. last week, Cano pitched five shutout innings and struck out seven batters. He only allowed two baserunners. And here’s the kicker. He added a win. Cano, despite not even being the designated closer for the Orioles, basically masked as a starting pitcher for me last week and helped lower my ratios.

Graterol hurt the ratios a bit (2 ER in 1.2 innings) but luck-boxed into a win. Estévez threw three no-hit innings with six strikeouts and picked up a win and a save. Helsley tossed three shutout innings with just one hit to go along with four Ks.

The combined pitching line from those four relievers was 12.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 16 K. That’s a 1.48 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with three wins and one save as a bonus. I could kept Helsley and Estévez  in my lineup (like I have all season) and started Tyler Anderson and Mike Clevinger over Graterol/Cano to chase strikeouts.

Those two guys went a combined 11 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 6 BB, 13 K. That adds up to a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Neither recorded a win. So there you have it. There was a net-positive effect from deploying Cano/Graterol alongside my mainstays Helsley and Estévez  instead of chasing strikeouts and wins with the starters (AKA panicking).

In fact, the relievers won two games and the starters zero. It’s not a fool-proof way to “win” a week. But by not letting the devil on my shoulder influence my decision-making, I avoided the temptation to load up on starters. I improved my ratios by a decent amount and netted two extra wins.

The moral of the story is don’t panic. Not yet at least. Find some creative ways to improve your team without “blowing it up.” In my situation, I’ll continue to use the high-leverage, effective relievers to soften the ratios until the next big SP prospect gets called up (I was outbid on Bryce Miller/J.P. France this week, but there will be others).

As always, hit me up on Twitter @Adam15Young and let me know what’s on your mind.