MLB Prop Tracker (May 11)

Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.

Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.

JT Brubaker Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112, FanDuel)

I read an article early Tuesday that asked, “Is JT Brubaker Pittsburgh's ace?” Unquestionably, yes. The dude has been ballin'. So, if you lived under a rock, or just don't follow baseball obsessively like I do, trust me — the dude is good. But, even better, Cincinnati whiffs a ton — to the tune of 10th-most in baseball, a clip of 24.7%. Bet the over.

Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-161, BetMGM)

My risk-averse friends — you wanna get nuts? You can bet with some juice from the house at 5.5. Or, you can go full alpha on these books and bet against the Rays at 6.5 strikeouts. Take your pick. The Rays have been dreadful, downright terrible against lefties this season. They own a 31.7% strikeout rate against southpaws — that's right, nearly one out of every three bats are striking out. Combine that with a .290 wOBA against lefties. Bet on Montgomery to dominate.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+370, DraftKings)

The Coors slate, rightfully, will receive a pile of attention. That's OK — want a sneaky other play? Erick Fedde is not good, and takes the mound for the Nationals. He's been absolutely slammed this season (5.27 ERA) and with a 10.9% walk rate in '21 and a career .454 slugging percentage to lefties, Bryce Harper is gonna eat.