Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Minnesota Twins-Kansas City Royals Over 9.5 Runs (-108 FanDuel)
It’s hot, humid and muggy in the Midwest – I know that Kauffman stadium plays to favor the pitcher, but this is also a spacious park, and that’s why I like runs here. To piggyback off that sentiment, Brad Keller has been downright awful for the Royals, and he could be out of a job soon. In 50.2 innings this season, the right-hander has logged a 6.55 xERA and 4.77 FIP – that’s not good, Bob. Keller is walking 10.4% of hitters this season. Runs, runs, runs.
NY Mets-San Diego Padres Over 7.0 Runs (-108 FanDuel)
Slam this baby, and quickly. Joey Lucchesi, traded from the Padres this offseason, is merely an injury filler for the rotation. Spanning 23.1 innings this year, the Southeast Missouri State product has logged a horrific 6.56 ERA. On the flip side, Blake Snell has been downright bad this season – his command and control is off, and he has reached six innings one time in a Padres uniform. His 14.2% walk rate would be the worst of his career, so there should be plenty of run scoring opportunities for New York.
C.J. Cron to Hit a Home Run (+400, DraftKings)
It’s Denver, and I want to take advantage of the warm air in Colorado. There is no better time like the present than with the Rockies’ Cron. While we know and love Cron’s power prowess, don’t overthink this one too much – he faces Frankie Montas, who’s allowed 1.70 HR/9 since the start of 2020. Righties have slammed Montas for a .512 slugging percentage and this could get even uglier here.
Dylan Carlson to Hit a Home Run (+700, DraftKings)
Something isn’t right with Luis Castillo. A dark horse pick by many to win the NL Cy Young award, Castillo has arguably been the league’s worst starting pitcher this year, as his ERA north of 7 runs would indicate. Castillo’s 11.0% swinging-strike rate is the worst mark of his career, and he’s been popped particularly hard by lefty bats.
