Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Keegan Akin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-113, DraftKings)
This one may perplex you a bit, but Keegan Akin has been surprisingly good. Let’s factor in the reasons why we need to believe in this bet. The Rays sport a fairly mediocre team wOBA (.304), and are second worst in baseball with a 27.2% strikeout clip. It’s their beautiful pitching staff that continues to crush, not the offense that has led them so far this season. Akin, on the other hand, has been really good (3.25 FIP, 21.2% strikeout rate).
Lucas Giolito Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110, BetMGM)
Giolito’s season-long metrics may give you pause – but let’s be real here. A Patriot’s Day game disaster in Boston, where Giolito couldn’t make it through two frames, buried his traditional metrics. That outing aside, he’s got a sub-3.00 ERA for the year. There’s nothing to suggest here, against a Tigers offense that is the league’s worst in strikeout rate, that the righty won’t dominate.
Royals-Athletics Over 8.5 Runs (-102, DraftKings)
I initially read this line as 98.5 runs, and that seems a bit more reasonable than the 8.5 over/under total currently set at many books. Brady Singer has whiffed plenty of hitters this season with nearly a K per inning, but he’s been obliterated as well – he’s got a WHIP of 1.46 this season, and constantly pitching with runners on base has gotten him into trouble. Likewise, pitch-to-contact southpaw Cole Irvin has come back down to earth as well, and he has been struggling as of late.
