Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Trevor Rogers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106, FanDuel)
Staking his claim to Rookie of the Year honors in the National League, Rogers has been one of the league’s best pitchers overall — not just as a rookie. The southpaw has given a major boost to this rotation, especially considering Sixto Sánchez, Elieser Hernandez and Cody Poteet have all been injured this season. Rogers will need to sop up those strikeouts quickly — he hasn’t worked super deep into games this season — but he faces a Rockies team with a 27.5% road strikeout rate, and Rogers is pushing 30% whiffs himself.
Xander Bogaerts to Hit a Home Run (+450, BetMGM)
The Red Sox shortstop has been on fire at the dish — during a seven-game hitting streak, Bogaerts has been smoking the baseball to the tune of a .407 batting average. And uniquely, he faces veteran Zack Greinke. Greinke has really struggled to a career-worst strikeout rate, and he has been pounded by same-sided right bats — they’ve logged a .442 slugging percentage against him, and 8 of the 10 home runs he has allowed this season have been to a righty.
Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+260, FanDuel)
We have belabored a Yankees offense all season for their poor showing at the dish, and if the last two nights are any indicator, they may finally be cooking with straight napalm. After whacking the Twins for eight runs each of the last two nights, and posting a 10% rolling walk rate the last two weeks, is enhanced plate discipline driving this showcase? It could be – and with southpaw J.A. Happ on the bump, who’s allowed 26 earned runs in his last five starts, Judge has to be licking his chops. Judge has slammed southpaws in his career, and 2021 is certainly no exception – he owns a 1.072 OPS and 196 wRC+ in this split.
