Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Eric Cross’ Crossed Up. Eric is as humble and knowledgeable as any person in existence. What are you waiting for?!
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. That means every Tuesday (yes, this article now comes out on Tuesdays), we force our way into a wetsuit and leap off the bow to the depths of fantasy baseball in search of the buried treasure … a league championship! Now let me whisk you away to the important areas of note across the fantasy baseball realm before I get shut out like the Rockies were by Mitch Keller!
Did Paul Goldschmidt Save the Cardinals’ Season?
I Feel Like Buckner Walking Back into Shea
Well, maybe it wasn’t quite like that. Like, at all. But Willson Contreras returned to Wrigley Monday night with the weight of the Cardinal’s struggles upon him. Didn’t matter though. He decided to bust out S-Mart’s top-of-the-line boomstick to remind not only his former loyal minions at Wrigley, but his new organization of the caliber of player St. Louis signed last offseason to replace team icon Yadier Molina. If you have watched or listened to a sports entertainment show at all over the last 30 years, one of the most difficult things to do is to follow a legend. Brian Griese taking over for the back-to-back champion Denver Broncos after John Elway retired always comes to mind. Whether the critics agree that Molina is a hall of famer legend is irrelevant. Molina’s standing in St. Louis is secure. Contreras actually seems like the kind of guy who is up for the challenge. The kind of guy who is willing to take that shot at the club while the other five guys around him are razzing him with jealousy because he did what they could not. As an offensive player, Contreras seems to be the same player he has been in recent years. I definitely want him on my fantasy team! That’s not why he was removed from the starting catching role though. That was apparently related to his framing and poor defensive metrics. If Monday night is any indication though, for fantasy it doesn’t seem to mean much. He has the positional eligibility plus he will still start behind the plate on occasion. Feels like this situation is nothing like Buckner walking back into Shea. It’s more like Spencer Turnbull being demoted to AAA: nothing big to report.
The King in the South
There is no need for me to bash a player unjustly for being injured. So I won’t do that. However, I will give credit to the man who has absolutely taken the role of closer in Tampa by storm. I speak of the once and future king Jason Adam! Since Pete Fairbanks left the field April 28, Adam is 4-for-4 in save opportunities while striking out 13 batters over 7 IP. Adam has been masterful for a team that is and will continue to win a lot of games this year. Overreaction is the nature of the beast in the analysis game, but Adam has been so damn good against honest competition. The Pirates, Yankees, Orioles and then Yankees again later this week. Adam has a chance to rack up a few more saves this week too. What might be even more impressive is how against type this is for the Rays. From April 30 to May 5, Kevin Cash nominated Adam out of the pen in four games, and Adam secured 3 saves over four days. It feels extremely unlikely at this moment that Adam will be pushed back to a setup role after this stretch. Fairbanks did play catch on Sunday at the dumpiest of all dumpster stadiums in MLB and he is supposed to return from the IL Tuesday May 16th. They took our jerbs! By then Adam will have 5 more saves while Fairbanks is an afterthought. In fact, right now Fairbanks is at some hotel in Baltimore doing his best Mark Wahlberg from Fear as he stares at his hotel mirror fuming about how this injury is costing him his job. We often get fed the “gotta support the team” crap in the media, but he’s only human. I would be pretty pissed too after seeing how well Adam has performed. This is not a fluke. Adam’s ability and performance stand on solid ground. Add Adam ASAP!
Have a Cigar
With Christopher Morel receiving the signal to return to Wrigley, there are many fantasy managers putting their feet up on their desk as they trim a stogie and light it up with puff after puff of orgasmic delight beaming from their ear to ear grin. For those who are leaving a trail of sadness Arrested Development style pondering what an existence with Tanner Bibee rostered on their fantasy team must feel like, don’t fret. Or maybe certain fantasy managers are in the dumps because they missed out on the arrival of Matt Mervis or even Brandon Pfaadt despite the 7 ER he gave up last week to Texas? Take comfort here. All is not lost. There are more prizes awaiting you in the prospects showcase showdown! Here’s a glance:
Matt McLain, SS, Cincinnati Reds
This first rounder from the 2021 MLB Draft has 9 dongs, 22 BB to 29 K’s and a stellar .333/.448/.667 slash line. Current Reds SS Kevin Newman will likely be gone sooner than later. Elly De La Cruz is a major stud but is still a big behind Matt McLain. Noelvi Marte moved down to AA. Plus the home ballpark is a big boost to McLain’s value. Watch list this dude now.
Samad Taylor, 2B, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is on their way to a bogus season. Not a shock. What may shock some fantasy managers is the pop Samad Taylor can achieve out of his 5-foot-8, 160-pound frame. Current Royals 2B Michael Massey has zero dongs and is hanging around the Mendoza line. In 30 games at AAA Omaha Taylor has reduced his K rate by 6% from last year while maintaining a double-digit BB rate. The only concern is if his 2021 season was an outlier for his power. Massey is so bad though that Taylor is close to getting a shot.
Kyle Harrison, SP, San Francisco Giants
The Giants hurler put up a 13.6 K/9 in 84 IP last year at AA. Now playing in the Pacific Coast League at AAA to start 2023, Kyle Harrison is increasing the whiffs while preventing homers (zero so far in 19 IP) in a stupid offensive environment in the PCL. Do the Giants wait a year to bring him up? I was of the opinion the Giants were going to be good this year and that they would need Harrison. Now I am not so sure.
Mark Vientos, 1B, New York Mets
This Mets prospect debuted in 2022 playing in 16 games while cranking his first MLB dong. Mark Vientos has a 175 wRC+ in 31 games so far at AAA with 10 homers and an absurd .357 ISO. Obviously, Pete Alonso isn’t going anywhere, but how about moving on from Dan Vogelbach to play Vientos at DH? The Mets need offense in a serious way. Stash this man if you can.
David Hamilton, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox
At 25 years old, David Hamilton showed up on a lot of radars by stealing 70 bases in 119 games at AA in 2022. This fella also had a 10% BB rate that he has increased to 12% so far at AAA while reducing the K’s by nearly 6%. He doesn’t have a long track record of success, which is his only downside right now. The rise of Enmanuel Valdez in Boston has hurt Hamilton’s chances.
Matthew Liberatore, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Most fantasy analysts are baffled as to why Matthew Liberatore is still not up yet. He has dominated at AAA while increasing his velocity and leading the International League in K’s. It’s only a question of when for Liberatore. The Cardinals need him too, so stash now. He’s close.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
This 22-year-old Rays first baseman hit 22 yambos between High-A and AA last year. Now Kyle Manzardo is at AAA Durham. So far he has 5 taters to go along with 15 BB to 21 K’s. He was a second-round pick in 2021. Dude is a personal favorite of mine. Only problem is finding time for him on a Tampa team that is absolutely on a tear this year.
Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians
How incredible is the scouting department in Cleveland?! Gavin Williams might be the best pitcher out of all the young arms they have right now! Williams was just recently promoted to AAA where he has thrown 10 solid innings. Another first rounder from the class of 2021, the number of options Cleveland has throws a wrench in his impending arrival. His talent alone is worth stashing him, but he might not be up right now unless there is a doubleheader requiring an additional starter.
Trey Cabbage, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
At 26 years old, Trey Cabbage is yet to make his debut mostly because of injuries. He only played in 30 games during 2022. Cabbage got off to a fast start in those 30 games and he is doing the same thing again after 30 games at AAA to start 2023. Plus his name is Cabbage. He is primed and ready to contribute for the Angels. If Shohei Ohtani is to stick around, it is all hands on deck. So if Cabbage can help, he will get the chance if needed. The only path for him though is 1B or DH as the Angels OF is spoken for.
J.P. Martinez, OF, Texas Rangers
A lesser-known player I am mentioning just because he is mashing at AAA. J.P. Martinez is 27 years old and still has not made his MLB debut. Last year he combined for 15 homers and 39 steals across 107 combined games between AA and AAA. He already has 15 steals in 16 tries this season! If he can wedge his way onto the Texas roster, he is likely a solid add for steals. One other thing is the K’s. He has struck out at a 32% clip in his minor league career, but this season he has cut his K rate by 12%! That’s not nothing.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
There is no keeping Christian Encarnacion-Strand a secret. Most fantasy managers know of him. The 23-year-old’s power is prodigious as he has crushed 7 dongs in 13 games at AAA. With that home ballpark stash him now if you can. Only problem is where to play, but the universal DH helps his case.
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Maikel Garcia, SS, Kansas City Royals
Maikel Garcia finally went 0-4 Monday night ending his streak of at least one hit at six games since he was called up. Garcia also had five straight games with an RBI come to an end as well. The Royals ripped the White Sox 12-5. Garcia has swiped two bags so far without showing any power yet. When a guy is playing every day though and producing consistently even if he is not overwhelmingly impressive, he’s worth a look. Add him in 14-teamers and deeper for possible steals or to fill an injury hole on your roster.
Joey Wentz, SP, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are overachieving in a big way. Joey Wentz has talent, as he was the first-round pick of Atlanta many moons ago. He was not dominant in his victory over Cleveland Monday. but his two-start week was laying in the weeds as a sneaky pickup for those paying attention. He was one of the older members of the Arizona Fall League last year, which told me that the Tigers really wanted him to pitch as much as he could so they could rely on him in 2023. Again, he is not dominant or flashy right now, but to me this is a picture you should roster on your 15-team leagues at least even if he does not have a two-start week. The Tigers are earning wins for their pictures right now. I am still not sure how this is happening, but it is happening, so you best make the adjustment.
Mason Miller, SP, Oakland Athletics
Welp, it was only a matter of time. Mason Miller‘s appeal was that he was super talented while throwing flame throwing heat on a team that had little competition for Miller to fear. He had a wide-open lane to pitch all year long even though his limited amount of innings in the minor leagues foretold an eventual shutdown or limitation as the season went on. Now Miller is going to have his elbow looked at as he heads back to Oakland to ponder his future. He could be fine but we know how this goes. It’s likely Miller will be a drop if you do not have an IL spot, though I can understand waiting a week or so on the prognosis.
Royce Lewis, SS/OF, Minnesota Twins
Another player who is redefining his timeline for his return from an injury, Royce Lewis is gearing up for a long rehab assignment at AA Wichita that will essentially be his spring training. His rehab starts Thursday. Lewis is expected to focus only on SS and 3B in his rehab. He’s still on the 60-day IL and his rehab can last up to 20 days. Lewis can be activated May 29. Minnesota is loaded with position players though. Even Edouard Julien doesn’t have a clear path back to the Twin Cities. Lewis is an exciting talent, but it might be tough for him to be a full-time player in 2023. Fantasy managers will do well to remember that.
Juan Yepez, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals brought Juan Yepez back up to the majors because Tyler O’Neill hit the injured list with a back issue. Yepez was an Arizona fall league darling two years ago when he became the apple of the Palazzo Podcast’s eye as we awaited his debut last season. Yepez showed flashes of power, but he is a horrendous defender. That’s not his biggest issue though. That would be the same old logjam St. Louis has in their outfield. The Cardinals really do need to find a trade partner for him. Let’s hope they can do that sooner than later so this masher of the house can get regular plate appearances. He will not play every day, so his value is limited even in 14-teamers or deeper.
Graham Ashcraft, SP, Cincinnati Reds
There is a lot of love for Graham Ashcraft among fantasy baseball analysts this year. Unfortunately he got ripped by the White Sox offense and then he was promptly blasted in the leg by an 108 MPH worm burner off the bat of the now functioning Luis Robert. I seriously don’t know what’s worse: the 7 ER Ashcraft gave up or taking a line drive off the leg? When both happen on the same day though, it’s time to go home, shut the blinds and pull a Howard Hughes for a couple days.
Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
How about today’s ballplayers? They are coming back faster and faster from their injuries each year. First Bryce Harper shocks the world, and now Jose Altuve is taking BP at AAA as he gets closer to a rehab stint. The fact that he is holding and swinging a bat is all you need to know. He’s going to blow past early estimates of his return around the ASB.
James Paxton, SP, Boston Red Sox
This old bozo keeps making waves in my article. This week, James Paxton is worthy of being mentioned because he is going to make his season debut this week most likely against St. Louis this coming weekend at home. He should start. Tanner Houck is still involved too, who I love, in what will possibly be a six-man rotation for the moment.
Alek Manoah, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
I posted about Alek Manoah’s issues on Twitter Monday to see if we could all come to an understanding of what was really bringing him down in 2022. The pitch clock has not been his friend, nor has his trash talking from last year. Right now, Manoah’s value could actually still go lower. Not much to be sure, but there are fantasy managers who still believe. If Manoah is not hurt (all signs point to him being healthy) then it is likely he figures it out over the next month. If there is a deal to be made now though, I can’t blame fantasy managers for doing so. I just do not like to trade players when they are at the lower end of their value.
Luis Ortiz, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are planning to start Luis Ortiz Tuesday against the Rockies in Pittsburgh. Ortiz was pitching like a boss at AAA to start 2023. He made his MLB debut last year pitching 16 innings over 4 starts. Across those 16 IP he struck out 17 while walking 10 with a 4.50 ERA (3.67 FIP). The Rockies were shutout by Mitch Keller Monday as Colorado continues to stink on the road. I wish I had more shares of Ortiz. This should be an excellent start for him that he can build from going forward. Ortiz should be rostered in 12-teamers and deeper.
Hunter Harvey, RP, Washington Nationals
Can it be true? After many years of false starts and dreams dashed, Hunter Harvey finally secured his first career MLB save. It’s been a long road for Harvey even though the trip from Baltimore to D.C. is only about 45 minutes. The question now is whether Harvey will usurp Kyle Finnegan’s role as closer? Finnegan blew the game the night before Harvey secured his save Sunday, but Finnegan had also pitched in three straight games May 2-4 locking down 2 saves and a win in those three days. So don’t overreact to Harvery’s save. It’s likely Harvey becomes the closer after Finnegan is traded at the deadline. Unless Finnegan blows it before then.
Carlos Rodón, SP, New York Yankees
On the latest episode of As The Rodóns Turn, the wife of Carlos, Ashley Rodón, has refuted some unsubstantiated gossip by Jomboy that Carlos Rodón might not pitch this year. Rodón did receive a cortisone injection to help his ailing back. I guess I lost track of Rodón’s injury issues because I thought the focus was on his forearm. Bottom line there needs to be rock solid positive news related to Rodón before anybody can feel good about him providing fantasy output again. It’s easy to sell Rodón right now, but I am thinking fantasy managers should consider buying Rodón right now because it should cost very little to do so.
Chase Silseth, SP, Los Angeles Angels
José Suarez is off to the IL with a shoulder issue. His loss is Angels prospect Chase Silseth’s gain. Silseth was up for seven starts during 2022 for the Angels. The final line on those 28 IP was a garbo 6.59 ERA (5.97 FIP) with 24 K’s to 12 walks. Silseth didn’t get torched at AAA to start 2023 plus he didn’t allow a single homer in the homer happy PCL over his first 20 innings. That gives me hope for Silseth as he enters the rotation this weekend at Cleveland. 14-teamers and deeper should look to add him for this start since the Guardians offense doesn’t scare me.
Vaughn Grissom, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves
Atlanta shuttled Vaughn Grissom back down to AAA Gwinnett Sunday. Grissom didn’t do much offensively while not making himself indispensable defensively either. I am taking the loss on Grissom for this year because I really thought he would get called back up and provide even a decent middle infield player for my fantasy teams. Now Marcell Ozuna is on fire plus Orlando Arcia came back Sunday. Throw in Brendan Shewmake getting called up to play defense, and Grissom now has a lot of work to do before he gets another shot in Atlanta. For what it’s worth, Grissom mashed in his first game back in the minors. Plus he will work on playing OF too while he’s down there. This isn’t over.
