Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Eric Cross’ Crossed Up. Eric is as humble and knowledgeable as any person in existence. What are you waiting for?!
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. That means every Tuesday (yes this article is moving to Tuesday starting next week), I explore every crevice of the facing of fantasy baseball in search of the ultimate prize … a league championship. With that in mind, I will try to outdo the offensive explosion that took place last Saturday in Mexico City.
Brandon Pfaadt Has Arrived!
If You Could Read My Mind
I am feeling a bit misty and melancholic as I write this piece. Canadian maestro Gordon Lightfoot passed on this week. Clearly his standard of excellence is “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald,” which created an unhealthy obsession with the Great Lakes and shipwrecks in me as a young lad along with a heavy dose of thalassophobia. However, his most touching song is probably “If You Could Read My Mind.” It’s a melancholic yet lovely ballad that goes down smooth with a hot cup of joe on a cool, sunny autumn morning. As tribute to one of my favorite singer/songwriters, I decided to let everybody into the dark recesses of my brain as if you could read my mind with my thoughts revealed about fantasy baseball so far:
Tyler Stephenson Has Me in Knots
Lately I have been lying awake in my bed at strange hours pondering the struggles of one of my favorite hitting catchers. Tyler Stephenson has zero dongs yet even though he plays at arguably the friendliest offensive ballpark in MLB. He has been making solid contact with a 43% HHR and he isn’t whiffing so much that it’s a code red:
Clearly there is a lack of consistent barrels. He also seems to be trying to pull the ball more while trying to sell out for power as his infield pop rate has gone up almost 5% so far this year. He’s pressing. The fact that he has been healthy is a wondrous blessing from the fantasy gods. Let us rejoice in this moment! I am going to stay the course with Stephenson. I trust in the talent and that ballpark in summertime bringing a wealth of fantasy goodness to a fantasy team near you.
Ryan Helsley Betrayed My Confidence
Ryan Helsley’s BB/9, BABIP and LOB% has all gone in the opposite direction of last year. The Cardinals overall are a mess right now, which I have to admit does not bother me in the least outside of the fantasy expectations I have for certain players. Helsley’s 3 blown saves are already close to his total of 4 for all of 2022. Giovanny Gallegos has not given up a homer in 9 IP so far while also surrendering only 2 BB and 4 total hits. That’s scary for me because I really was feeling the funk on a nasty dunk with Helsley this year. Unfortunately, every fantasy manager rostering Helsley should be terrified about his future prospects this year. Especially because most of us spent a pretty decent draft pick to get him. Sigh…
Matt Chapman Haunts My Dreams Every Night I Lay Down to Sleep
I am so torn watching Matt Chapman embark on the best year of his career. The current OPS leader in MLB has 15 doubles already. I am privy to a lot of threads and DMs where fantasy people drop their fantasy comments. One of those threads got into my head and I have nobody to blame but myself. In that thread during draft season, some of the participants were flogging Chapman’s ability to always be in the lineup as a negative because he would produce so many 0-fers during the season. There I was thinking being available everyday was a good thing! As I have stated here and elsewhere, Chapman was crushing the baseball last year while running into unfortunate outs. I was confident his bad luck would not continue in 2023 thanks to the changes in the ballpark dimensions in Toronto and his continued ability to crush the baseball in a potent lineup. With the added bonus of trepidation around fantasy circles surrounding the depth at 3B, Chapman was an ideal play around ADP 150 this year:
He has become the type of pick that lifts teams into title contention for those who waited on him to be their starting third basemen. I have zero doubt that what he is doing is real. I will have to live with the regret of not trusting myself to follow through on the work and knowledge I already had. Next year I will be much more aggressive if I see a clear line between a player who is unlucky this season and then has the potential for him to shine in 2024. Learn from my mistakes.
Trevor Rogers Was Going to be the Love of My Fantasy Life
Trevor Rogers will be lucky to provide optimism for a solid 2024. Rogers was one of my top three most drafted players this spring. He was starting to come around after two ho-hum starts. The Marlins are currently of the belief that it will be a few weeks before Rogers starts to throw again. This sounds eerily familiar to another Marlin pitcher from 2022: Jesús Luzardo. The Lizard went down last May with a forearm strain as he sat out the next two months. He did return Aug. 1, and from that point The Lizard pitched 71 innings with a 3.03 ERA (2.87 FIP) and 79 K’s to 19 BB. That was valuable production over the last two months of the season. Including two double digit K games over his final three starts. Who can say if Rogers can return by the ASB and provide a similar return? Just remember there is a blueprint from last year from the same team who executed it.
Piling on the White Sox Is Great Fun, But It’s No Good for My Fantasy Team
By the end of last weekend, the White Sox were at the depths of their greatest fears. Chicago, which is often dominated by the north side, even became center stage for the Sox futility with guys like this calling in with rants about the end of the days for the south siders. Thankfully on Sunday, the pale hose put an end to their 10-game losing skid. Now they have won two straight games. I talked about this on an episode of my show the Pallazzo Podcast I did Monday. Now is the time to buy low on White Sox players. Even Lance Lynn, who was whiffing bats with his cutter even before he threw six gorgeous innings against Tampa before the wheels fell off. When everybody has had enough of Luis Robert and his lack of interest in running, that was the time fantasy managers needed to pounce. There is still time I believe to go get more White Sox players from the frustrated managers who have had enough of Dylan Cease getting ripped in two straight outings. Never mind that both outings were against the Rays in the mother of all 2-steppers! Everybody is submitting to the Tampa Rays right now. I am a heavy buy on Cease right now. I already love Giolito! I want them all! As an AL Central enthusiast, I love seeing the White Sox stink. However, I know that my fantasy teams always come first. Take advantage of the market right now. The price may never get this good again.
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Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Another player I cannot recall drafting, Adam Wainwright has geared up to ramming speed while rehabbing in the minors from a groin injury. All systems are go it appears as he gets the lovely gift of making his season debut this week against my bozo Tigers. Look for Wainwright to not only be a useful SP in 12-teamers and deeper, but also possibly a stabilizing force for a Cardinals squad who has stunk to high heaven so far.
Bryce Miller, SP, Seattle Mariners
Welp, that debut Tuesday night put Bryce Miller in rarified air (Mason Miller wasn’t so bad either). He joined Stephen Strasburg and Johnny Cueto as the only guys to whiff at least 10 and walk none in their debut. Six stellar innings will be tough to top going forward, but since it’s a shame about Robbie Ray, Miller has a wide-open path to fill the void in the Seattle rotation. If he’s still hanging around on your waiver wire, go get him! His next start is likely against Houston in Seattle. How he performs will be telling.
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay has done just fine without his services, but Tyler Glasnow will still be received with open arms regardless of whether or not he’s a Creed dude or a Journey fanatic. Glasnow is poised to make a rehab start at AAA Durham after a solid bullpen session last weekend. Will he require more than one rehab start? Maybe. Either way, he is close to returning. Prepare accordingly.
Ranger Suárez, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
When Ranger Suárez completes two more rehab starts, he should be return to the Phillies rotation by mid-May. That means Matt Strahm will head back to the bullpen. After his start against the Dodgers Tuesday where he was roasted in 3.1 IP, the transition of pitching power should be easier. Suárez is a mixed bag for some fantasy managers, but he has a career 3.12 ERA (3.64 FIP). He’s a must-add in at least 12-teamers and deeper upon his return.
Miguel Amaya, C, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs skipped AAA for Miguel Amaya and made the call to bring him up to the big club with Yan Gomes hitting the 7-day concussion IL. It’s always impressive to see a player jump from AA to MLB, but from a fantasy perspective, I’m not sure there is long-term value or use here. Amaya has a solid ability to draw walks, but he was rocking a 30% K rate at AA before this promotion. Amaya suffered a lisfranc fracture last September that caused him to miss out on playing in the Arizona Fall League. Amaya has talent, but how long he stays up means he’s a risky add in most leagues.
J.P. France, SP, Houston Astros
It’s a code red situation in Houston as José Urquidy and Luis García left back-to-back starts Sunday and Monday, with both now on the IL. I don’t even have to blink without assuming most people will instantly call for eternal prospect Forrest Whitley, who has lived seven lives already. Yet, the less heralded but more currently more productive J.P. France should get the option to start for the Astros. Get to know him here. As of this writing the official decision has not been announced, but the 28-year-old France has a 2.33 ERA with a 26-11 K-BB in 19 IP at AAA Sugarland. Bank on France and assume the Astros are in cahoots with Rumpelstiltskin as they spin another starting pitcher into gold.
James Paxton, SP, Boston Red Sox
I have been ripping The Big Maple because I was bitter about the results of the last few years. However, he did look sharp in his latest rehab outing. I can’t ignore that. Neither should you. Realistically though, how many innings will James Paxton give fantasy managers this year? 75? The Red Sox have reiterated that this is currently like spring training for Paxton. Expect one more rehab start from Paxton and then probably a likely return to the northeast. With the recent Garrett Whitlock news, Paxton doesn’t have to be a factor right away. Take caution here.
Konnor Pilkington, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland recently DFA’ed Konnor Pilkington (why does his last name remind me of Pippy Longstocking?), and now he has a new home as he was traded to the southwest to pitch for the Dbacks. For now, this is nothing more than depth to fill the void of Madison Bumgarner hitting the high road. If Cleveland let’s a pitcher go, that says something.
Michael King, RP, New York Yankees
Many fantasy managers were hoping Michael King would get a shot to close after Clay Holmes was roasted Monday by the Guardians. That gift was given instantly Tuesday as King locked down the save for Gerrit Cole. I had picked King up Tuesday morning in my H2H cats home league. King is a serious threat to Holmes as the Yankees know that the AL East is too unforgiving to allow Holmes to blow a few more games.
Nick Pratto, 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals
It’s another opportunity in Kansas City for the young slugger who can play 1B or OF. Nick Pratto sported a .173 BABIP in 81 PA down at AAA Omaha. I guess the new management in KC feels he just had some bad luck? This is a fantasy baseball roundup so I thought I would let you know he’s back in the bigs and actually hitting in his first three games. Fourteen-teamers and deeper take note.
Cory Abbott, SP, Washington Nationals
Chad Kuhl hit the IL this week with a right big toe sprain that sounds awful. Cory Abbott experienced 9 starts over 48 IP in The Show last year where he found himself saddled with a 5.25 ERA (6.36 FIP). Abbott started this year at AAA with 30 K’s over 23 IP with his 12 K performance against AAA Rochester last week sending shockwaves through the National’s franchise (I may be exaggerating). At 27 years old, he has the potential to miss some bats. Abbott did end up pitching out of the bullpen Monday, but he could still start for Washington later this week. Abbott’s a streamer at best for now in 14-teamers and deeper.
Christopher Morel, OF, Chicago Cubs
As of this writing, Christopher Morel has 11 dongs at AAA Iowa. He’s doing everything possible to get back to the majors. I am still baffled as to why the Cubs chose this path. In fact, the Cubs are becoming one of the more difficult teams to read when it comes to team management decisions. I get the feeling ownership wanted a lot of free agents brought in all the while Jed Hoyer is trying to explain why Matt Mervis, Morel and Nelson Velázquez (who always makes something happen when he gets called up) are already in the organization ready to serve the north side with quality output. His time will come.
Justyn-Henry Malloy, 3B, Detroit Tigers
My affectionately titled bozo Tigers have a special player in their minor league ranks who has been raking to start 2023. Tigers new head man Scott Harris shrewdly acquired Justyn-Henry Malloy during the offseason from the always filled to the brim with talent Atlanta Braves. I was fortunate enough to sit down with Malloy in his living room at his temporary Arizona Fall League accommodations last fall. It was hard not to be impressed by his easy-going, level-headed nature plus he has a megawatt smile that Detroiters are going to fall in love with when he arrives. Through 26 games at AAA Toledo, he has an OPS of 1.001 with 4 dongs and a 21-25 BB-K ratio. This guy is going to be a steady performer in OBP leagues. He just recently turned 23 and if he keeps rolling like this, the Tigers will have to bring him up. Fantasy managers should star his name on their watch list right now.
