Groovin’ with Govier: Fantasy Baseball Roundup (4/5)

Welcome to the first regular season edition of Groovin’ with Govier! If you’re new here (regulars: Skip), I dissect various players and strategies related to the current fantasy baseball landscape. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to Vlad Sedler’s must-have weekly Trust the Gut FAAB review. It’s the best in the business, bar-none. Now, just like David Dahl and Ha-Seong Kim did Monday night, it’s time to flex my lineup’s muscles from one through nine!

All Apologies

Right now there is a person reading these words who feels exactly how I do. After six days of baseball, I am kicking myself for not drafting Gleyber Torres anywhere. How could I have been so obtuse as to draft him heavily last year, but ignore Torres altogether this go-around? Gleyber cranked a dong on opening day against a stellar Logan Webb (12 K’s), who seemed to either strike Yankee hitters out or allow them to go yard. From the moment I witnessed that lovely oppo taco dong, my body was overcome with a wave of foolishness firing off all of my nerves into an anxious state of disappointment. I know someone is reading this right now who wishes Torres was on their team too. 

That’s only the beginning. There are other players I didn’t draft at least once who immediately afflicted me with regret after the first pitch of opening day. The unseen power of the transition from spring training to opening day is a formidable foe whose mystery is only exceeded by its power. C.J. Cron CJ Cron stared me down in several draft rooms and often well after his ADP too. I justified that I could wait for Josh Naylor 80 picks later. I preserved this rationalization by forming another one related to the decaying ability of Coors Field to be the offensive powerhouse that it once was 15 years ago. Cron hasn’t even played a game at home yet, but he’s already cranked 5 XBH. 

Jeffrey Springs made me weep with regret after no-hitting my bozo Tigers for the 6 innings he faced them last weekend. Last year in one of my dynasty leagues I moved Starling Marte for Manuel Margot and Springs, and he started to impress at that time. I think that’s the only team I have him rostered on now. That bums me out because he’s going to be a badass this year! Yes, my bozo Tigers are easily dominated, but Hunter Brown couldn’t contain them the other night (I turned on the game Monday and for a minute I thought those sweet Astros Space City jerseys were new Tiger’s road threads but alas they were not). By that logic Springs is better than Brown no matter what happens going forward. Jorge Mateo received no love from me during draft time. I figured with steals being more readily available this year, what value did he offer me? He went yard against Texas the other night along with starting four of Baltimore’s first five games. I’m still skeptical of him over the long haul, but right now the overreaction is to hail Mateo as the second coming. 

Steven Kwan will probably win a batting title this year while I sit by idly wondering how much fun it is to roster him. I’m already kicking myself for passing up Yordan Alvarez in my Main Event draft in Vegas when he was given to me at 15. I didn’t take him at 15 or 16. I chose the recently ejected from a baseball game Manny Machado because I bought into the fear that 3B was shallow. The worst part is I was not concerned about Yordan’s spring training hand issues at all! MIKE! YOU DUMB BASTARD! Masataka Yoshida looks like a solid choice for this year’s AL ROY. You won’t find him on a single roster of mine though (I have 21 leagues this year). There are a lot of players right now who are off to slow starts who will have their day in the sun before it sets on the season. Right now though, like many young men living in terror of missing out on Bitcoin, I’m having a major case of fantasy baseball FOMO. 

Panic on the Streets of London

Fantasy baseball is not immune to panic and overreaction. Hell, they’re staples of the game when you look at the day to day grind all season long. I want to point out some pitching outings over the first five days to find out if those players who got shelled are up Schitt’s Creek or simply Waiting for Guffman:

José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays

I wanted to grab a few shares of José Berríos during draft season, but I was unable to actually snag him when the time came. A once-promising prospect with a filthy breaking ball fell out of favor after a career-worst season in 2022. His first start of 2023 at Kansas City appears to have done little to help his cause on the surface. Berríos struck out 7 and walked 2 with 11 swinging strikes. Sounds like a worthy outing until I include the 8 ER he gave up. That isn’t cool. He did go for 5.2 IP with 3 ER in the first and 4 ER surrendered in the fourth. His four-seamer and sinker velocity were stable with a big boost in his K’s due to the 8 called strikes he secured with his sinker. Eight ER is always going to be a living hell to see in your fantasy lineup. Almost completing 6 innings with 7 K’s is enough for me to say hold off from dumping him in 14-teamers and deeper. The Angels are up next for Berríos in Anaheim. Any fantasy manager who needs a hand to hold for that start, I’m here.

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

Another Toronto starting pitcher (the Blue Jays open the year with a 10-game road trip). Last year, Chris Bassitt told it like it was when it came to MLB constantly tinkering with the baseballs used in-game. I only admired Bassitt further from that moment on. Unfortunately, Bassitt was tattooed for 9 ER Sunday in St. Louis. Four swinging strikes was all he could muster. What’s worse is he gave up zero walks! 10 hits including 4 dongs did him in over 3.1 IP. My guy Jared asked me in the Pallazzo Discord if patience should win the day with Bassitt? After one start, I always want to see one more outing with a guy like Bassitt’s experience. Most likely from my bench of course. But I also told him I completely understand cutting ties with him. Especially in 12-teamers or shallower. 

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Compared to the last couple of years, getting one start from Chris Sale feels fantastic. Sale’s slider induced 4 whiffs on 5 swings. He had an overall 43% whiff rate in the outing. This outing didn’t go right because he gave up 3 homers. His control was fairly solid while he had gas screeching from the baseball each time he threw it. I wouldn’t worry about this start at all. Buy, buy, buy.

Shintaro Fujinami, Oakland A’s

Maybe this is my bias, but I felt Shintaro Fujinami’s start against the Angels where he gave up 8 ER was worth reviewing. Fuji only lasted 2.1 IP before being pulled after 55 pitches. He did not give up any home runs, plus he secured 13 swinging strikes in that short amount of time. That’s impressive. I can’t decide if it’s more impressive that he was smacked for 8 ER or the 13 whiffs he generated. Fuji ended up with 4 K’s to go with 3 BBs. Control is the point of relevance for Fujinami that concerns most analysts. WHIP will always be a category that detracts from Fujinami’s value. SIx whiffs on 9 swings of his SPL though is damn impressive. Right now, Fuji should be free to pick up in most leagues. His home park is a bonus even if his team stinks. There is 14-team and deeper usefulness here. Pick him up for nothing or wait until his next start Sunday against Tampa Bay to see how he responds. The benefit is he pitches before most FAAB runs for next week.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

Seven home runs in one game is quite the feat the Giants pulled off this Monday at whatever they call Comiskey Park now in Chicago. Fortunately, Michael Kopech only gave up five of those dongs. Maybe Kopech rushed his readiness to start the season? Then again, maybe not. Kopech had surgery to repair his torn meniscus at the end of the 2022 season. Most expectations were that he would be ready to go for the 2023 season. Kopech did equal his counterpart Anthony DeSclafani with 12 swinging strikes. That’s a good thing! It’s not a good thing to walk 3 and give up 9 hard hit balls in play. His velocity was there and he induced a 35% whiff rate with his 4FB. That’s something to build on. Kopech is talented. It’s possible his mechanics were out of whack after surgery. I am betting there are better starts ahead. Do not drop Kopech yet. Stay the course. 

Early Takeaways

Now let’s take a moment to dissect some information from five days of baseball (through Monday; it’s early Wednesday as I write this and I haven’t had the chance to incorporate the Tuesday data yet) in order to gain some perspective about this year’s baseballs in play:

• In 2022, there were 60 games played over the first five days of the season. This season saw 65 games completed over the first five days.
• During this span in 2022m there were 22 times when a team scored 1 run or fewer. This year that total was equaled at least 29 times.
• During 2022, teams combined to score at least 12 runs at least 13 times over the first 60 games. To start 2023 teams have combined to score at least 12 runs 23 times in 65 games. 
• During 2022, teams scored at least 10 runs 10 different times over this span. For 2023 over the same five days, teams scored at least 10 runs 12 different times.
• The first five days of 2022 saw 99 different players hit a home run. Over the same span to start 2023, there were 121 different players who belted a tater. 

What do these numbers tell us? Not too much so far in my view. It’s five days of baseball. Any small sample size is at risk of being too small. The number of different players who hit a home run to start 2023 does resonate with me. Let’s see what people smarter than me come up with in terms of an increase in fly ball distances over the first month. That or a new Chris Bassitt rant for 2023 will reveal a lot more. 

Screenshots

Drey Jameson, P, Arizona Diamondbacks

In one league I spent $72 in FAAB to add Scott McGough. He promptly blew that record-setting walkoff loss to the Padres I mentioned at the top. Tuesday saw Kevin Ginkel (my dark-horse pick to close prior to opening day) come on to pitch a clean inning before giving way to Drey Jameson, who closed out the save against the Padres with an ER on 3H over 2 IP. Jameson as the multi-inning closer certainly intrigues the fantasy baseball senses especially if it is not in the cards for him to start this year. If Ryne Nelson is the only person standing in his way of being a starter, then I would say Arizona manager (and former Tiger) Torey Lovullo still holds out hope of Jameson starting this season. Jameson seems to be down with pitching no matter what, which is a great attitude to have in his position. 

Jason Vosler, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

Do you smell that? The smell of baseballs traveling longer distances is in the air, and there is no place I’d rather be in this type of environment than Great American Bozo Park in Cincinnati (I mastered the spelling by living there for a year in 2004-05). Enter Jason Vosler, who has taken the place of 1B Joey Votto while he is on the shelf. Vosler belted a three-run homer to give the Reds the lead the other night against the Cubbies. Vosler is impressing Reds’ manager David Bell, especially since Vosler didn’t start that game he hit the dong in. Opportunity plus ballpark makes Vosler worth adding in 14-teamers and deeper with a wait and see in shallower leagues. Can you say Watch List?

Adam Duvall, OF, Boston Red Sox

When Adam Duvall goes on a heater, it’s best that everyone tries to get in on the action before this deal expires. Tuesday was the first time he didn’t have a hit in a game this season. Don’t fret though. The Duvall heater will continue in April. Just be careful come June when the heater wears off and your stuck with dead weight on your roster. For now, we toast! 

Justin Steele, P, Chicago Cubs

In the case of Justin Steele, he revealed his hand to all during the 2022 season. Heck, even during the 2021 season Steele struck out 59 batters in 57 IP. Actually, that reinforces his case even more as a solid rotation piece who can generate whiffs. It’s time Steele got his due. He should be rostered universally in 12-teamers with definite 10-teamer streaming appeal. If wins are a category in your league, that might be the only problem with Steele’s profile. 

Josh Rojas, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Yes Evan Longoria’s shadow is looming quite forcefully over Josh Rojas. After Rojas hit leadoff going 3-3 with a steal Tuesday, the useless fear that crept into my mind over the first five days has subsided. There are still going to be platoon fears with Rojas, but I just know that Longoria is not going to hold up over the course of the season. Patience still has a place in our world. Consider exercising some with Rojas in 12-teamers and deeper. 

Trevor Larnach, OF, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has come out the gate ready to take on the world! Trevor Larnach is a former 2018 first-round pick who hasn’t been able to stay on the field. At this moment he is capable of being available and he’s making the league take notice. He’s started every game for the Twinkies showing power and patience at the plate. With Alex Kirilloff being an afterthought because of that wrist and Joey Gallo getting reps at 1B, Larnach has a clear path to play going forward. He’s a must-add even in 10-team leagues especially those with five OF spots.

Dylan Dodd, P, Atlanta Braves

That’s one for Dylan Dodd and none for Jared Shuster after Dodd secured his first big-league win Tuesday night over the Cardinals. It wasn’t a Stephen Strasburg-type debut, but I’d argue it was still pretty impressive considering the lineup he faced. Dodd secured 12 swinging strikes with a 42% whiff rate using his SLD. Bryce Elder was recalled to replace Max Fried to start Wednesday. Shuster was optioned back to the minors. For now. At this point, anybody who rolled the dice on Dodd over Shuster has the edge in their fantasy leagues for now. 

Yoán Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox

He’s back baby! Forget Freddy! Forget Jason! Yoán Moncada is the ultimate horror movie villain who keeps coming back for more. The continuation of his historic 2019 season has now resumed just over three years later. I am denying anybody from taking a victory lap on Moncada this season though. Anybody who plays fantasy baseball knows he has the talent to do so. Taking a lap on Moncada is akin to tweeting out that this is the year Byron Buxton finally stays healthy. One of my big points of emphasis for 2023 is the post-Tony La Russa effect on the south side of Chicago. Moncada is just one of many pale hose players who will thrive this year. The one kudos related to Moncada I will give out has to do with anybody who didn’t panic at 3B by waiting to take Moncada as their starter. That’s takes discipline in today’s fantasy baseball realm where no stone is left without analysis.