Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (3/30)

This installment will circle around spring training, gathering any news that provides us with fantasy baseball impacts. This segment is covering spring training news from Sunday to Tuesday. Now that NFBC live events have taken place, I’ll be using the Main Event ADP data, which has 13 completed drafts for the sample size.

NL East

New York Mets: Jacob deGrom (P)

Jacob deGrom is now being drafted inside the top-three at the starting pitcher position and top-10 overall. Prior to deGrom’s spring training performances, deGrom was being drafted in the second round. The new market is set with deGrom having an ADP of eight and a min pick of two.

NL Central

Pittsburgh Pirates: David Bednar (P), Chris Stratton (P), Oneil Cruz (SS)

David Bednar is currently set to split closing duties with Chris Stratton. This isn’t what you want to hear if you invested in Bednar. Stratton is looking like he could return some value if you were able to draft him around his ADP of 401. This news will have Bednar fall a little in drafts while Stratton creeps up a little. I would prefer Bednar as he has the better stuff, obtaining at least part of the closing job as of today.

Oneil Cruz was optioned to Triple-A, where he will play for at least the first couple weeks of the regular season. We see this time and time again with cheap organizations. Now the question becomes when do the Pirates actually call Cruz up? The fantasy industry was sold on Bobby Witt Jr. playing in the majors last season, but eh ended up with zero plate appearances. For me, this isn’t something I want to invest in when I’m playing to win now. Cruz will be a rookie, playing on a Pirates’ offense that isn’t very talented. Fantasy managers that drafted Cruz were embracing this demotion for the first couple of weeks, so I don’t envision Cruz’s ADP of 194 to dip much further than that.

St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols (1B)

Albert Pujols is going back to where it all began in St. Louis. Even as a Dodgers fan who loved having “Tio Albert” in the Dodgers’ dugout, it makes sense for him to finish his career with the Cardinals. Pujols is a future Hall of Famer and played the first decade of his career with the Cardinals. Pujols will be deployed as Paul Goldschmidt’s backup at first base, getting most of his at-bats as the DH when the Cardinals are facing left-handed pitching. Pujols was certainly useful against left-handed pitching last season, owning a .294 AVG with 13 home runs in just 136 plate appearances. His strikeout rate was only 14.4% while posting a .309 ISO and 146 wRC+. This move doesn’t do much for fantasy purposes unless you’re in an NL-only league.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (P)

Zac Gallen (shoulder) is scheduled to make his spring debut Wednesday. This is fantastic news for fantasy managers that bought low on Gallen over the previous week. If all goes well it looks like Gallen won’t end up missing much time with an estimated return in mid-April.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers rotation, Dodgers bullpen, Cody Bellinger (OF)

Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts is projecting Andrew Heaney and Tony Gonsolin to get the final two spots in the Dodgers’ rotation. Roberts did mention his current vision for Tyler Anderson in a piggyback role, which could increase his upside for wins. David Price isn’t built up, so he isn’t even an option to make the rotation at the moment.

Blake Treinen recently mentioned he is happy with being a high-leverage reliever versus solely being the ninth-inning closer. Add that to the fact that Roberts has already stated he will be using multiple relievers in the ninth this season, and this isn’t great news for fantasy managers that invested early draft capital in Treinen, who currently has an ADP of 99 with a min pick of 78. Teammates Daniel Hudson, Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia will start to garner more interest as more drafts unfold while Treinen’s ADP is going to fall a bit.

Cody Bellinger is trending all over Twitter for his lack of contact and high strikeout rate this spring. Bellinger now has 14 strikeouts in 19 at-bats, which is rather hard to fathom. Bellinger was asked about his struggles and said, “I’m feeling better than what the results are saying.” He also repeatedly said he’s “close” and with a smile saying he’s getting his “punchies out of the way early.” Bellinger’s spring training struggles has caused a wide range in his ADP (103) with a min pick of (89) and a max of (133). This trend will likely continue up until Opening Day as each league will vary in the interest to draft Bellinger.

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado (3B)

Manny Machado sat out spring training games this past weekend due to back tightness. This was just a precautionary move as Machado returned to the Padres’ lineup on Monday.

San Francisco Giants: Tommy La Stella (2B), Evan Longoria (3B), LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B/OF), Logan Webb (P), Giants bullpen, Mike Yastrzemski (OF)

Tommy La Stella is set to make his spring training debut Tuesday. La Stella is getting a late start, recovering from surgery on his Achilles.

Evan Longoria has been bothered by an index finger that is now requiring surgery. It’s odd that they would have waited this long to get the procedure done as the injury came on a hit by pitch last season. Longoria’s expected return date is currently TBD, making him a cut in leagues with FAAB.

LaMonte Wade Jr. left Monday’s spring training game with some sort of knee discomfort. Wade Jr. had an MRI on Tuesday that revealed a bone bruise. Wade is expected to begin the season on the IL, which has me crossing him off my draft list.

Logan Webb has been named the Giants’ Opening Day starter. This comes as no surprise as Webb is being drafted as an ace with an ADP of 57 and a min pick of 31. Webb’s first start should be a good one, pitching at home against the Marlins.

Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler spoke on the KNBR radio show, saying “Right now, if we were starting on Opening Day, Jake McGee would be our closer.” Well, I’m sure you don’t need me to tell you that this isn’t good for fantasy managers that drafted Camilo Doval. McGee has an ADP of 268, but that is going to change quickly. Doval has an ADP of 154 and that will change quickly as well. I’m not sure how high McGee rises but it will certainly reach Doval’s area of ADP and could ascend past that with manager Gabe Kapler’s confirmation.

Mike Yastrzemski left Tuesday’s spring training game with quad tightness. The Giants deemed this as a precautionary move.

High-Level (NL)

Upgrade: Albert Pujols (NL-only), Chris Stratton (all formats), Jake McGee (all formats), Tony Gonsolin (all formats), Tyler Anderson (all formats), Zac Gallen (all formats)
Downgrade: Blake Treinen (all formats), Camilo Doval (all formats), David Bednar (all formats), David Price (all formats), Evan Longoria (all formats), LaMonte Wade Jr. (all formats)

AL East

Boston Red Sox: Chris Sale (P)

The roller-coaster offseason for Chris Sale will continue on as his ADP fell in main events to 189 with a max pick of 263 with the news of his fractured ribs. Sale spoke on Tuesday, saying he feels “much better.” The plan is for Sale to begin throwing again next week. His return date is still TBD, but positive news like that will surely have his ADP on the rise again.

Tampa Bay Rays: Pete Fairbanks (P)

Rays’ reliever Pete Fairbanks injured his lat over the weekend, undergoing an MRI Monday. The news wasn’t good as Fairbanks is set to miss a substantial amount of time. Fairbanks was a potential dark horse for a few save opportunities as the Rays like to use their relievers in all sorts of scenarios. Fairbanks’ injury will cause more inflation to Andrew Kittredge who has a current ADP of 183 with a min pick of 133. I’m a fan of Kittredge and wouldn’t mind acquiring more shares myself, however, if the draft price rises too much I’ll pivot elsewhere. The injury to Fairbanks currently shortens the list of ninth inning options for Rays’ manager Kevin Cash, so expect the organization to seek additional options via trade or free agency. If/when they do that, it could become a potential threat to the current relievers on the Rays.

New York Yankees: Luis Severino (P)

Luis Severino was scratched from his Wednesday start with arm soreness. This isn’t something you want to hear if you have drafted Severino as he is right around the two-year mark from the procedure. Hopefully this is precautionary, as it is just March and the Yankees don’t want to rush Severino into another injury. The plan is for Severino to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday rather than make the Grapefruit League start. Severino was drafted in the 11th round on average in the first 13 main events. I’m curious to see if that sustains moving forward.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn (OF), Adam Haseley (OF)

Andrew Vaughn left Sunday’s spring training game due to right hip discomfort. The pain in his hip was significant enough to have him carted off the field. He was diagnosed with a bruised pelvis on his right side, basically a hip pointer. The White Sox think Vaughn will be ready to play in games in 1-2 weeks. This puts Opening Day in doubt and concerns me moving forward. He’ll likely have a significant dip in ADP moving forward.

The White Sox traded for outfielder Adam Haseley, a direct result of Vaughn’s injury. Haseley provides outfield depth and a left-handed bat as the White Sox are light in that side of the box. Haseley joins a talented lineup that will have him buried towards the bottom of it, remaining off my radar.

Minnesota Twins: Chris Archer (P)

The Twins continue to add depth to their bullpen, inking Chris Archer for one year and $2.75 million along with an option for $10 million next season. There are incentives in Archer’s contract that could have him making up to $6 million more with a $750,000 buyout. A lot to digest as there are a wide range in outcomes in Archer’s new contract and Archer’s health and performance. Archer has only thrown 139 innings over the previous three seasons and the results haven’t been good when you look back to 2019 when he threw 119.2 of those 139 innings. Archer had career highs in walk rate (10.5%), ERA (5.19), SIERA (4.38) and HR/9 (1.88). I’m not sure what to expect from Archer as we haven’t seen him healthy in a while.

AL West

Houston Astros: Justin Verlander (P)

Astros’ manager Dusty Baker spoke about Justin Verlander’s Opening Day status, saying “probably not” in regards to being the starter. Verlander has pitched two spring outings, combining for 4.2 innings pitched. The Astros and Verlander are proceeding with caution and rightly so. NFBC Main Event drafters aren’t messing around when it comes to drafting Verlander with his ADP of 58. This is a trend I expect to continue as Verlander hasn’t had any setbacks.

Seattle Mariners: Matt Brash (P), Justus Sheffield (P), Julio Rodríguez (OF)

Matt Brash continues to dazzle and make a case for the fifth spot in the Mariners’ rotation. Brash is just 23-year-old with Double A being the highest level of ball he’s pitched in. The love Brash is warranted as he possesses elite velocity (97 MPH) along with a nasty slider and changeup that seems to be growing on him. Brash’s teammate Justus Sheffield is also a candidate for the fifth spot in the rotation, although he hasn’t looked anywhere near as dominant as Brash. The fantasy baseball market is certainly gravitating toward Brash’s upside with an ADP of 390 and a min pick of 317. He’s no longer a “sleeper pick” if you’re drafting in the NFBC.

Here we go. There is steam behind Julio Rodríguez making the Mariners’ Opening Day roster. The hype for Rodríguez is only going to get bigger from here on out as Rodríguez is one of the top prospects in all of baseball while providing stolen base upside. Rodríguez will have a new ADP in no time as his current one of 247 is now stale. Rodríguez will likely start the season hitting in the bottom third of the order, which will make it tough to be a ln average to above average contributory in counting stats.

Texas Rangers: Jon Gray (P)

Jon Gray was named the Texas Rangers’ Opening Day starter. The good news is that he is the head of the rotation. The bad news is Gray’s first start will be on the road against the Blue Jays. I’m into Jon Gray this season, but I’m likely sitting Gray his first outing with that matchup.