NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
There’s no rest for the weary when you want to be the best with fantasy baseball season breathing down your neck. Welcome back everyone, to the next installment of my 2021 MLB fantasy baseball positional preview series. I hope you enjoyed the new immersive approach, and those of you interested in the more advanced analytics incorporated the supplemental Corked Stats podcast episode well.
(Check out the first base positional preview.)
Second base has presented an interesting case in the grander scheme of strategic construction so far for me this year. Carrying a trademark for transparency, I’d be remiss if I didn’t lead with the fact that I didn't like the position coming in. I have over two dozen 40-round cash drafts under my belt this season. I’m speaking from a place of researched experience when I say I’m passing up top with reason. I won’t ever be bullied by public perception and/or average draft position away from my determinative calculus for player selection. Cost in particular has been a major issue for me at 2B, and I’m going to do my best to present why I find myself continuously dropping back to punt. After I’m done playing Statler & Waldorf, dousing the top tiers in cold water we’ll move it over to Corked Stats again to get out the microscope for the deeper dive into sleepers, late breakouts, and NFBC draft and hold strategy.
Tier 1
DJ LeMahieu, NYY, 2B1 (ADP 30)
Ozzie Albies, ATL, 2B2 (ADP 33)
Whit Merrifield, KCR, 2B3 (ADP 39)
Put simply, the cost of these second basemen not only feels like paying for a ceiling but standing over a trapdoor while we do it. As a dyed-in-the-wool Yankee fan from birth, I have no problem saying that LeMaheiu’s stint with the Yankees has some anomalous aspects, and the major projection systems agree — The BatX forecasts an underwhelming .296/18/5/87/74. Don’t get me wrong, LeMahieu is a consummate professional at the dish with what I feel is an extremely safe floor for batting average and runs. My concern is in line with The BatX, that the price tag comes with higher expectations for home runs, RBIs and stolen bases than I am prepared to assign. As a prerequisite, I avoid having so many categorical concerns around a single player at such an early stage of the draft. If you remove the stress of position scarcity from your calculations, I have a hard time seeing why a pivot toward broadly safer floors (outside of AVG) in Xander Bogaerts doesn’t make more sense in roto formats.
With Albies, we have another fine player with an acceptable cross-categorical floor, but 124 PAs in 2020 showed us at least what a glimpse of regression might look like in the form of some serious statistical reversion. Questions surrounding the proper application of 2020’s statistics aren’t going to go away. We have to do our best to weigh each case independently — implementing without overdoing. On one hand, the progress we hoped to see from Albies never manifested last year, seeing his K%, BB%, ground ball %, line drive % contact %, average exit velocity and maximum exit velocity all head in the wrong direction. On the other hand, we have the potential for the top overall roto finisher at the position. My concern as usual involves price. Even if I’m correct on a step back for Albies, there should still be decent average, power and steals. However, in order for me to justify the cost, I would want more confidence in his lineup placement. I think Albies returning a profit here is predicated on getting to (or near) 100 runs scored. For reference, after returning from injury last year, he hit sixth or later in the order around 70% of the time, supplanted by a surging Dansby Swanson. I won’t pretend to predict lineups with certainty, but I do know it’s crowded at the top and there are even talks Atlanta is still shopping, which is certainly something to stay mindful of.
Merrifield (audible, lasting groan accompanied by shaking head) always seems to elude me as I’m annually pessimistic about his prospects only to be served a heaping helping of humble pie. I must be hungry because here we go again, as I once again bet against enhanced production in speed beyond the age 30 season. I’m not immune to the criticisms, and I recognize there’s a lot to like here. The broken record in me, however, can’t stop repeating his age and what that has meant for speed historically. My distress is only amplified when we couple in a profile that doesn’t speak to power production (Merrifield relies on his advanced line drive rate to capitalize on his pulled barrels despite very low hard hit %, dynamic hard hit %, and barrel %), and it isn’t alleviated by my next point regarding counting stats: The Royals have one of the lowest combined OBP for any top and bottom third in MLB. Even if I concede that his average and playing time should equate to 90 runs as a floor, my projection for RBIs is in line with Steamer in the 60s so the total of about 155 falls short for a top-40 pick when I’m already worried about the steals and homers. Sorry, Cool Whit.
Tier 2
Cavan Biggio, TOR, 2B4 (ADP 58)
Keston Hiura, MIL, 2B5 (ADP 68)
Brandon Lowe, TBR, 2B6 (ADP 70)
I had my concerns surrounding Biggio from the jump, regardless of the 20/15 projections. It really becomes difficult for me to add what amounts to a batting average sinkhole, particularly in highly competitive leagues or those with an overall prize (Remember, in point leagues and best balls, Biggio gets a boost in consideration). As if that weren’t enough, The Blue Jays have made a couple of impactful signings — George Springer and Marcus Semien — that will likely bump Biggio from his lineup spot. Both are getting paid big bucks to hit atop the lineup. Lastly, from a broader statistical standpoint, Biggio greatly outperformed his expected stats in 2020 (.250 BA vs. .215 xBA, .432 ISO vs. .347 xISO, .355 wOBA vs. .307 xwOBA, .390 wOBAcon vs. .319 xwOBAcon — definitions of weighted on-base average and other terms can be found here MLB Glossary) and there’s a compelling argument he slides back a bit in terms of contact quality for the coming season.
Hiura is the easiest for me to pass on at the price and just take the loss if he does break out toward profitability. I’m a professional process trader, and I’m not sure I want to succeed from methods that allow paying premiums for such a supremely flawed disciplinary profile. I generally break hitters into four categories: Averages, discipline, elevation, and batted ball quality. Hiura has enough 2020 percentile grades in the bottom third (some in the single digits) to fail him in three of four baskets — OBP, xOBP, AVG, xAVG, K%, BB%, K-BB%, swinging strike %, out-of-zone contact %, in-zone contact % and contact % were all beyond tolerating for me. If we look back on his career, I’ll concede to proper pushback on the parts that appear anomalous, namely batting average and batting average on balls in play. However, there’s an argument to be made that the worsening disciplinary skills are a result of failed adjustments to being pitched low with an existing propensity for striking out. That said, the elite batted ball quality (.423 xwOBAcon, 14.2% barrel/batted ball event) with assured playing time opens the door wide open to project thirty home runs with speed. If you believe Hiura will make the proper alterations, the pathway to profit is clear though it just may be easier said than done. From my personal experience thus far, I’ve been shopping for pitching in this range for starters I think can finish inside the top 20.
Lowe is another second baseman who gets the most out of his plate appearances while striking out nearly 30% of the time throughout his career. Another profile that usually ends up on my cutting room floor for not meeting prerequisites (K rate above 25%, contact rate 10% below average), Lowe lines up pretty similarly with Hiura. In fact, apples to apples, I think I prefer Lowe’s higher line drive %, lower chase %, and wildly better 2020 (.554 SLG, .555 xSLG, .385 wOBA, .365 xwOBA, 43% fly ball%, 43% Fangraphs hard hit %). Projections are pretty tight on Lowe, but the batting average floor plus his injury history make him easy to forego. As a volume player, I don’t usually end up with much ownership here when they go at ADP, but be on the lookout for a round or two discount to change the calculus for necessary profitable production.
Tier 3
Ketel Marte, ARZ, 2B7 (ADP 82)
Jeff McNeil, NYM, 2B8 (ADP 91)
Max Muncy, LAD, 2B9 (ADP 97)
In this next trio, we get to Marte, my favorite second baseman among these top tiers, and my personal target for my 12-team home league. A poor categorical 2020 on the surface is suppressing the cost of the 27-year-old, who actually experienced disciplinary gains last season. Ketel dropped his K% and swinging strike % while raising his contact % to elite levels to go with a 115.9mph max exit velocity. In my search for validation beyond the subjective, I would point you toward the inimitable work of Derek Carty and his BatX projection system that have a huge year on deck for Marte (.294/26/8/96/92). Sign me up. Now.
McNeil and Muncy offer different things, but neither is balanced enough for me in roto play (be aware that high OBP ceilings make them viable in point and best ball formats). McNeil’s average feels safe, but those critical steals are waning (only 5 SB in the last 778 PAs). His other major attribute, scoring runs, is at least somewhat predicated on lineup placement. He’s thought of as the leadoff hitter, but keep in mind McNeil spent the last month of the year hitting at the back of the lineup. The Mets also have plenty of high-OBP hitters, and that was before the acquisition of superstar Francisco Lindor. The pathway to profitability and a season to match projections (.278/19/8/88/81) feels like it’s narrowing.
Around pick 100, Muncy has more justification for the cost, in my opinion, offering very solid floors in three categories. The allure of 35-plus home runs atop the premiere offense in MLB will do that. However, I think I’m realizing that maybe I’ve become a batting average snob in my old age. All kidding aside, I think batting average is often overlooked and Muncy can be a detriment. We’ve seen what can happen when a projected .235 runs into some bad luck, and it isn’t pretty. For those Muncy drafters, let me offer you the prospect of Josh Bell, who has nearly identical expectations, but with a better average and a nearly 100-pick discount.
Tier 4
Jose Altuve, HOU, 2B10 (ADP 103)
Dylan Moore, SEA, 2B11 (ADP 113)
Mike Moustakas, CIN, 2B12 (ADP 124)
Altuve has perhaps the widest range of realistic outcomes at the 2B position. I won’t pretend to ignore a long and productive career, but we also can’t totally dismiss an abysmal 2020. The biggest problem for me is that this most recent dropoff follows a statistical downtrend that now spans four years and 1,800 PAs. Altuve’s AVG, OBP, wRC+, K%, ground ball %, chase %, swinging strike % and max exit velocity have all seen a consistent and precipitous slide since 2017. Entering his age-30 season, it feels reasonable to expect the dwindling of his once 30-steal potential to continue as well, down from 32 in 2017 to 8 in 172 games in 2019-2020 in that same timeframe. The flipside? I could be completely wrong. In market terms, rather than see a continued selloff to new lows, we would bounce right off the bottom. In this reality, Altuve fulfills projected expectations as a five-category contributor (.282/24/13/84/94) and finishes as the third-most valuable second baseman overall per the FanGraphs auction calculator. Given the team context and surrounding talent I’m not arrogant enough to dismiss the possibility of the latter, and at the cost, neither should you.
Moore may be listed here as 2B11 by average draft position, and my best guess says it’s the desperation for later speed coupled with overemphasizing what looks like an anomalous 2020 to explain why. His power output in the shortened season is a total outlier in comparison to any other time in his career, having never hit more than 11 HRs in a year before launching eight in just 159 PAs in 2020. Without a solid batting average or strong surrounding supporting cast, Moore is the easiest for me to pass. I’ll provide my preferred avenue for stolen bases at 2B in the supplemental Corked Stats podcast.
Death, taxes and Moustakas going later than at least four players at his position that he shouldn’t are things we have been able to count on in this life, and that won’t change here. The profile and projections sound a lot like others we’ve covered already. So what’s changed? The price, of course. 2020 may have been forgettable for Moustakas, but most of the underlying metrics were in line with his career stats, preventing me from worrying too much about 2021: His barrel % and line drive % remained the same, while his chase % and contact % each improved by two full ticks from 2019. To go back to BatX projections as a comparative framing device, Moustakas is the fifth-most profitable second baseman for 2021 and his projection (.250/37/2/88/98) looks eerily similar to Brandon Lowe’s (.252/29/6/78/83), 55 picks later. This year’s moose hunt could likely be a profitable one.
Many leagues nowadays do have more than 12 GMs (or expanded rosters), so I won’t leave you hanging in case yours does and you haven’t had your fill. Just to stress one last time, I’ve been avoiding the players at the very top tiers, looking for comparable baskets of production later on. Now unlike my take on first basemen, I’m not totally sold that you need to have one of these 12 to win. I’m going to explain what I mean and go into a more detailed analysis on Corked Stats. If you are in fact interested in expanding your research to the deeper tiers, sleepers, or my own draft and hold strategy regarding second basemen please check out the corresponding audio:
Please feel free to interact with your comments and questions. Hit me up at @MLBMovingAvg.
