Evaluating the 1B landscape for 2021 fantasy baseball

Snow on the ground, frozen bones, and blistering winds can only mean one thing; Baseball season, amirite? It’s late January and MLB fantasy baseball draft season is already in full swing for 2021. The inception of draft-and-hold and best ball formats have extended many serious player’s preparation to 365 days a year.

My objective here is to try something new in terms of positional breakdowns: To provide an immersive, multimedia approach to our analysis, covering the varying interests of different player types. In this article, I’ll provide you with a concise overview of the top tiers of the first base landscape in roto while additionally staying mindful of players with different format-dependent values.

Once we get past the very best (and more obvious) players, I want to shift our attention to audio, where I’ll be doing supplemental comparative player analysis on the Corked Stats podcast. This will allow for a more detailed side by side dissection of players going later with more unique skill sets or wider outcome ranges that require individual attention, difficult to cover sufficiently in digital ink without presenting a novella. There are a ton of stones out there, and we mustn't leave a single unturned. Let’s get to work.

Tier 1

Freddie Freeman, ATL, 1B1 (ADP 13)
Cody Bellinger, LAD, 1B2 (ADP 15)

One of the best hitters in the game today, there’s not a flaw in Freeman’s profile with the bat — it’s almost a waste of time to hash out individual stats here. I generally break hitters into baskets: Counting stats, discipline, elevation and batted ball quality. Freeman excels in all, putting up 95th-percentile stats seemingly everywhere, even posting a top-five best K-BB%. You get it all from Freeman in the batter’s box, including excellent team context. He’s my clear 1B1 in any leagues that reward OBP or disregard/discount steals. His roto value presents more of a challenge, particularly in deeper leagues where stolen bases that don’t come tethered to a batting average sinkhole are drafted in the first round as well. Although Freeman has been good for six stolen bases in each of his previous four full seasons, I’m not projecting more than a couple entering 2021, his age-31 season. That said, I’ve found I’ve had to pass over him consistently in roto drafts. First base is deep across the top 10 for comparable power and counting stats. For me, the more pressing application of a balanced build forces my attention to those stats more difficult to replace later on, steals in particular.

Bellinger is one of the brightest young stars in the game with an MVP ceiling surrounded by all the talent you could ask for. The one perceived hole in his approach (strikeouts) have been reduced by a third over his last 900 PAs. This is something I expect to continue. He’s never posted a chase rate above 30%, keeping his upside at a top-three overall finish. His elevation and batted ball profiles have sustained with the improvements in discipline, as well as seriously underperforming his expected statistics last year (.239 BA vs. .284 xBA, .337 wOBA vs. .360 xwOBA). I love the position eligibility (he qualifies at both 1B and OF) as well, which is nearly impossible to understate the value of in leagues without in-season additions. There are some potential downsides, however, that I believe are responsible for pushing his 40-homer, 15-steal potential toward the back end of the first round in 15-team leagues. Bellinger dislocated his shoulder in the playoffs, requiring surgery. He did hit a home run after that, which is encouraging, though he struggled mightily otherwise, going 3-22 in the World Series. I think he will be at full strength for the 2021 season, but before I spend a first-round pick I’d like to see him healthy, making throws and taking swings in spring training.

Tier 2

José Abreu, CHW, 1B3 (ADP 35)
Luke Voit, NYY, 1B4 (ADP 61)
Pete Alonso, NYM, 1B5 (ADP 57)
Matt Olson, OAK, 1B6 (ADP 90)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR, 1B7 (ADP 58)

I lumped the next five first basemen together as they offer very similar profiles categorically and have a secured spot on any team. They’re all going to play every day and hit in the middle of top-flight lineups. However, even as a volume player, I personally haven’t rostered many of these guys due to my own perceived depth at the position, combined with the scarcity of steals and pitching at those early stages of the draft. They’re all productive players, but the key to roster construction is never selecting in a vacuum — always remain cognizant of the ever-shifting battlefield, as each pick resonates throughout the entire draft. We must regularly ask ourselves if we can locate this same stat combination later for cheaper.

Abreu is the clear leader of the pack here for me in roto, offering the highest upside in batting average (though I would also point people to an underwhelming walk rate, making him less profitable for the cost in point or OBP leagues). Even with the plus batting average, he provides zero speed and that makes him hard to draft in category leagues, particularly those with an overall prize even if you drafted speed earlier. Personally, I find steals hard to predict and I prefer to not roster players who project zero. It doesn’t sound like much on its own, but having five hitters who can chip in five steals apiece will absolutely translate into points in the final standings.

The remaining three first basemen all share essentially the same attributes, with Guerrero a slight outlier, having the best discipline but worst elevation basket (responsible for suppressing his power potential in the past). Voit and Alonso are surely going to hit for a ton of power, but since I’m projecting Voit for a better BA, he takes the second spot in this tier for me. I don’t think any of these players will hurt you with poor output, they just may offer a basket of statistics more easily found later on. For the most part, when having to decide in a case like this, give me the comparable stats at the cheapest price in Olson.

Tier 3

Paul Goldschmidt, STL, 1B8 (ADP 101)
Anthony Rizzo, CHC, 1B9 (ADP 97)
Dominic Smith, NYM, 1B10 (ADP 99)

This final grouping of top first basemen again share similar talents that frankly can come across as somewhat vanilla, but let me say this — some of the greatest fudge sundaes ever constructed began with vanilla as the base. Though not stirring up much excitement, Rizzo and Goldschmidt are both excellent players hitting atop good lineups and are about as reliable as we could ask for. They’re so close by skill and projections it’s essentially a price determined coin flip for me, with a slight lean toward Goldschmidt for the moderately higher power output. Smith projects to have a serviceable season, as well as offering dual eligibility, but he doesn’t have the track record for me to pass on either Rizzo or Goldschmidt (both of whom get a boost to a low 1B1 for me in point or OBP leagues at a nice value).Also worth noting, the addition of Francisco Lindor to the Mets eats up a spot in the top half of a lineup that already has several lefties, which could and should cost Smith some PAs when played out over the course of the season.

That said, I think these 10 players represent the clearest path to 1B1 production. There are a few more guys I’ve been rostering later on, sitting more toward the back of the plane with wider ranges of outcomes but ideally those players start for us as a corner infielder or utility spot.

Tier 4

Many leagues have more than 10 teams, so I won’t leave you hanging in case yours does. Just to stress one last time, I try to make it a point to always have one of the 10 above players regardless of league size. My conclusion thus far on depth at the 1B position is that though there may be a lot of indiscernible categorical contributions from the third slot down to No. 10, there’s also a rather precipitous dropoff in terms of track record, balance and ceiling beyond that. So in one sense, there’s depth, but there’s also the line of demarcation not to be ignored. We cannot allow ourselves to be in the predicament of playing catchup as the minority in a position where the vast majority have a production floor of .260 BA/35 HR/80 R/95 RBI.

If you are in fact interested in expanding your research to the deeper tiers, sleepers or my own draft and hold strategy regarding first basemen please check out the corresponding Corked Stats podcast, in which I covered (timestamps included):

Alec Bohm (7:24)
Eric Hosmer (9:13)
Ryan Mountcastle (11:41)
Rhys Hoskins (12:59)
Josh Bell (16:51)
Miguel Sanó (19:54)
Jared Walsh (22:39)
Christian Walker (27:31)
Hunter Dozier (30:55)
Jeimer Candelario (36:06)