Diamond Data — 7 Stats to Know for MLB DFS Wednesday (9/14)


Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of data, painting one clear picture.


These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate. 

1. 93.1

All around the industry, including the Strikeout Model, you’ll see David Peterson projecting as one of the best pitching values of the slate. However, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph over the last 30 days, along with a 53.4% hard-hit rate. 

This is absolutely a case where we can either play Peterson or stack against him for the correlated leverage. Based on that batted ball data, I’m leaning toward the latter.

2. 34.5%

Corbin Burnes has an elite 34.5% CSW over the last 30 days, up nearly two percentage points from his already stellar baseline. The Cardinals are a difficult matchup, but Burnes is head and shoulders above the rest of the pitching options in skill.

3. 15.7%

The Orioles provided mixed results Tuesday, but I’m more than happy to go right back to them against Patrick Corbin and his 15.7% barrel rate allowed over the last 30 days. They will almost certainly be popular, so they’re best utilized alongside a contrarian secondary stack, like Chicago.

4. 54.4%

Pick a stat from JP Sears’ recent batted ball profile and it works for a key stat:

Texas is another great spot Wednesday.


5. 24.4%

Sonny Gray will look to follow up Joe Ryan’s outstanding start with one of his own. His 24.4% K rate is the fourth best on the slate, and he has the third-best projections throughout the Strikeout Model.

6. 31.5%

On a slate with limited pitching options (especially if you want to fade Peterson like I do), I’m drawn to Brayan Bello. His 31.5% CSW over the last 30 days is much more in line with the talent we saw from him in the minors. He’s put together back-to-back strong starts and as he continues to build trust with the coaching staff, they may lengthen his leash (currently around 85 pitches), as well. The Yankees have awoken offensively, but they don’t handle changeups very well, which is Bello’s best pitch. 

Bello is the kind of play that could ruin your night in the first inning OR win you a GPP. That’s my kind of play. He’s also a direct pivot off of…

7. 25.8%

Everyone’s favorite “punt” will likely be Dane Dunning against the A’s. However, Dunning’s CSW has fallen to 25.8% over the last 30 days, two percentage points below his baseline. His Statcast trend tells a similar story:

The A’s are another great correlated leverage secondary stack (along with the Cubs).

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