Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Robbie Ray has a 28.5 K%
Robbie Ray has 27 strikeouts in 19.1 innings over his last three starts. He also has a 2.81 ERA at home this year. He’ll face the Nationals at home in this one. Washington has five hitters in their projected lineup with a K% above 20% against left-handed pitching. The Nationals are 23rd in the league averaging 3.80 runs per game on the road this season. At $9,900 on DraftKings, Ray is one of my favorite pitchers Tuesday.
2. Nick Lodolo has a 28.7% K%
Nick Lodolo has had three quality starts in his last five starts. One of those games, his last start, came against the same team he’ll face here in the Phillies. Lodoolo threw seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and five hits and two walks allowed in that game. Lodolo was at home for that game, where he has a 2.93 ERA at home despite Cincinnati being a pitcher’s park. His road ERA is scary at 8.49, but I still like the matchup. At $9,000 on DraftKings and sub-five percent projected rostership on this slate, Lodolo is an interesting tournament option.
3. Max Fried has allowed a .221 wOBA on the road
Max Fried is on the road against the Pirates here. Pittsburgh is 24th in all of baseball averaging 3.90 runs per game on the road this season. Fried has a 2.76 ERA on the road, but he’s allowed a .216 average and only one home run in 58.2 innings on the road. Seven hitters in the Pirates projected lineup have at least a 20% K% against left-handed pitching. At $9,400 on DraftKings, I also have interest in Fried Tuesday.
4. Justin Verlander has a 25% K%
Justin Verlander isn’t the most expensive pitcher or the pitcher with the highest projected rostership percentage, but he’s still one of if not the greatest pitcher of his generation in the middle of a Cy Young-caliber going up against the Twins at home. Minnesota is actually fifth in all of baseball averaging 4.84 runs per game on the road. Only Jorge Polanco and Jake Cave in a small number of at-bats have an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching. Verlander has allowed just a .075 ISO to left-handed hitters this year. Minnesota has six hitters with at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching. Verlander has a 2.18 ERA at home, but his ERA since June 24 is 1.48 anywhere. At $10,500 on DraftKings, Verlander is my favorite expensive pitcher on the slate.
5. Jonathan Heasley has a 5.98 xFIP
The Royals are bringing Jonathan Heasley back from the minors for this home start against the Diamondbacks. He’s been terrible in his home starts this year with a 6.35 ERA. He also has a .400 wOBA allowed and .307 ISO allowed to left-handed batters. Christian Walker and Daulton Varsho each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. Ketel Marte and Josh Rojas are also in play here as is Emmanuel Rivera at $2,600 on DraftKings.
6. Zach Davies has a 4.68 ERA on the road
Zach Davies has a 5.00 xFIP. He’s pitched over his head the entire season to have a 3.99 ERA. He’s been OK lately, though he hasn’t completed more than five innings since the middle of June. He’s allowed a .185 ISO to right-handed hitters. Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Hunter Dozier all have ISOs above .168 against right-handed pitching this season. I can see stacking up both sides of this game with the Royals and Diamondbacks. The Royals have more value to offer as they have more attractive cheap options like Michael Massey at $2,100 and Michael Taylor at $2,000.
7. Germán Márquez has a 5.85 ERA at home
Germán Márquez’ xFIP is lower at 4.67, but he’s allowed a ton of power as he’s allowed a .184 ISO to left-handed batters and .222 ISO to right-handed batters. That’s not a good recipe against a Rangers lineup with power up and down the order. You can pay up for Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García but they’re the only guys over $4,000 on DraftKings on the Rangers. Kole Calhoun is my favorite minimum-priced guy over Brad Miller.
