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Chris Meaney
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Gerrit Cole has a 3.58 xFIP
While Gerrit Cole enters Tuesday 8-2 with a 3.26 ERA, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing recently. Cole has allowed five home runs over his last three starts, including two home runs in each of his last two starts. He’s allowed a .180 ISO to left-handed batters, and it was left-handed Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers who tagged Cole for two home runs in his last start. Still, the Cincinnati lineup will only have three left-handed hitters for Cole to worry about in Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin and Mike Moustakas. The Reds lineup is 28th in all of baseball this season averaging 3.38 runs per game on the road. Cole will be looking to improve on his 2.31 ERA at home this season.
2. Spencer Strider has a 39.2% K% as a starter
Spencer Strider continues to impress in his bid for NL Rookie of the Year, where he’s the current betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. His numbers since being moved into the Braves’ rotation have been outstanding as he has a 2.24 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .169 AVG and .231 wOBA as a starting pitcher. Strider has recorded 12 and 11 strikeouts in his last two starts and completed six innings each time. He’s recorded at least 11 strikeouts in three of his eight starts and completed at least five innings in five of his eight starts. This isn’t the easiest matchup for him at home against the Mets, who are eighth in all of baseball averaging 4.70 runs per game on the road this season. The Mets also don’t strike out much as their projected lineup has a combined 17% K% against right-handed pitching, but Strider’s strikeout stuff will play against anyone.
3. The Rays’ projected lineup has a 24% K% against left-handed pitching
Chris Sale will make his 2022 debut Tuesday in Tampa Bay. The Rays are tied for 24th in baseball averaging 4.07 runs per game entering play. Tampa Bay has struggled against premium velocity this season and in a recent start against Hunter Greene, who has a 5.70 ERA, in the Great American Ball Park, they managed to strike out nine times and score only once against Greene. While we don’t know everything about Sale’s time in the minor leagues leading up to this start, the first pitch of his last rehab start was 97 mph. We also know that Sale is slated to throw 85 pitches tonight, according to MassLive.com. He’s also slightly discounted at $8,400 on DraftKings. There’s some uncertainty here, but he’s still in my top three pitchers on the slate.
4. Austin Gomber has a 6.64 ERA at home
It was only 47.2 innings, but Austin Gomber had a 2.09 ERA pitching at home last year. In 39.1 innings this year, he has a 6.64 ERA, and he hasn’t been much better on the road this year with a 6.28 ERA in 38.2 innings. Is there any chance Gomber has been unlucky and thus is due for some positive regression? Yes, actually, Gomber has a 4.82 xFIP, which isn’t great but is still considerably lower than his 6.46 ERA overall. Still, the Padres figure to be the chalk stack tonight as they have the highest implied team run total on the slate at 6.13 and their prices are still too cheap given the matchup and of course the game being at Coors Field. Gomber has allowed a .254 ISO to right-handed batters and Manny Machado ($5,100) and Jorge Alfaro ($3,400) each have ISOs above .250 against left-handed pitchers this season.
5. Kris Bubic has a 5.34 ERA in his last six starts
Kris Bubic started out the year terribly, going 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA in four April starts. His xFIP is 5.29, which is very close to his ERA in his last six starts. While Kansas City’s organization was certainly hoping for more from the 24-year-old who had a 4.43 ERA in the majors last season, it seems like Bubic has found his level and this is what he is. It doesn’t necessarily mean that Bubic will produce the disaster start that allows Tigers stacks to take down GPPs tonight. After all, he allowed just two earned runs on five hits and three walks in 4.2 innings two starts ago against the Tigers. Still, there is reason to have some interest in the Tigers offense here. Both Javier Báez and Eric Haase have ISOs above .250 against left-handed pitching since the start of last year. Bubic has allowed a .347 ISO to left-handed batters, which puts rookie Riley Greene in play batting leadoff at just $2,900 on DraftKings.
6. Dallas Keuchel has a 7.63 ERA
The former 20-game and Cy Young Award winner in 2015, Dallas Keuchel was released by the White Sox before the Diamondbacks picked him up. He had a 7.88 ERA in eight starts with Chicago and now has a 7.16 ERA after three with Arizona. His last start wasn’t bad as he completed seven innings and allowed just three earned runs against the Colorado Rockies at home. While facing the Rockies away from Coors Field is one of the best matchups you can have, the Giants offense is 11th in all of baseball averaging 4.57 runs per game at home. Keuchel has allowed a .196 ISO to right-handed batters and Darin Ruf and Thairo Estrada each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this year. Since the beginning of last year, Austin Slater has a .224 ISO against left-handed pitching.
7. Adrian Sampson has a 4.46 xFIP
Over the weekend I noticed the Orioles’ prices had gone up a bit on DraftKings, but that is not the case here. Adrian Sampson, with his 2.91 ERA, has tricked the algorithm and now Cedric Mullens is back under $5,000. Despite being 24th in all of baseball averaging 3.98 runs per game on the road this season, Baltimore shouldn’t be taken lightly on this slate. Sampson has allowed a .202 ISO to right-handed batters and .192 ISO to left-handed batters. The Orioles lineup has four hitters with at least a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching in Mullens, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman. Outside of Mullens, only Austin Hays is listed above $4,000 on DraftKings, meaning all of the Orioles are easy to fit under the salary cap.
