Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Justin Verlander has a 2.23 ERA this season, 10th in all of baseball
Justin Verlander’s been great this year as his ERA is among the best in all of baseball. He has a 4.28 xFIP, 25% K%, 5% BB% and 39% ground ball percentage this season. Verlander has allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts combined and one of those was against these same Mariners, who hit him for six earned runs two starts ago. Still, Verlander has typically pitched well against Seattle including beating the Mariners two other times this season. In one of those starts, he tossed eight scoreless innings on the road. Pitching at home this time, I expect Verlander to throw another good game against the Mariners.
2. Tarik Skubal has a 27% K% this season
Tarik Skubal is enjoying a breakout season this year. His 2.15 ERA on the season is actually lower than Verlander’s. Skubal hasn’t taken a loss or allowed more than three earned runs in a start since the month of April. In addition to his 27% K% this year, Skubal has a 3.06 xFIP, 4% BB%, and 47% ground ball percentage. It’s a full-on breakout and projection systems around the industry may still be lower on Skubal than they should be going forward. The Pirates offense can be sneaky against left-handed pitchers sometimes as players like Michael Chavis and Diego Castillo each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Still, two lefty mashers isn’t enough to take me off of Skubal at this point. While Skubal is a big-time strikeout pitcher, this could turn into a ground ball show given that everyone in the Pirates’ projected lineup has at least a 44% ground ball percentage against left-handed pitching this season. That bodes well for Skubal to pitch deep into this game, which he’s excelled at recently as he’s completed at least six innings in five of his last six starts.
3. Carlos Rodón has a 3.44 ERA this season
Carlos Rodón has to be mentioned as one of the best pitchers on the slate. He’s also in a matchup he’s excelled in already this season against the Rockies at home. Back on May ninth, Rodón struck out 12 Rockies and allowed just two earned runs, six hits and two walks. On the season, he has a 3.84 xFIP, 30% K%, 9% BB%, and 36% ground ball percentage. Rodón is my favorite spend-up option on this slate.
4. Kyle Bradish has a 4.41 xFIP this season
Kyle Bradish’s 6.82 ERA on the season is gross, but his xFIP is over 2.00 runs lower and I think he might be worth a stab at his low $5,100 price on DraftKings Tuesday. Bradish has flashed some upside recently as he’s recorded at least five strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Five starts ago, of course, he struck out 11 against the Cardinals. Bradish has flashed strikeout upside and the Cubs projected lineup has six hitters with at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching this season. Patrick Wisdom is the only hitter in the Cubs projected lineup with an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching this season and the Cubs are playing on the road in Baltimore where the fences were moved back 20 feet in left field. Bradish is my favorite value pitcher on the slate.
5. Chris Flexen has a 5.59 xFIP this season
Chris Flexen hasn’t been good this year and the Astros offense has been hot, this one isn’t that complicated. Or is it? Despite Flexen’s 5.59 xFIP, he has a 4.55 ERA on the season and has pitched pretty well against the Astros three times already this season including two quality starts. I’m not quite sure how he’s getting away with it given his 16% K%, 7% BB% and 36% ground ball percentage so I’m inclined to believe that he’s due for a correction. Even though he’s pitched well against the Astros, Houston has scored 11 runs over the past two days. The Astros are one of my favorite stacks of the slate. Flexen has allowed a .207 ISO to right-handed batters this season so Jose Altuve and his .217 ISO against right-handed pitching this season should be a priority.
6. Jason Alexander had a 17% K% and 6% BB% in the minors this season
Jason Alexander is making his second big-league start against the Phillies. He pitched well in the minors with a 2.64 ERA at Triple-A this year and he pitched well in his first major league start going seven innings and allowing just two earned runs against the Cubs. The catch is that Alexander doesn’t strikeout many batters as he recorded only three strikeouts in his first start against the free-swinging Cubs and had just a 17% K% in the minors this season. The lack of strikeouts is a major concern against a team like the Phillies because the contact is going to be there and it’s going to be loud. The Phillies are also one of my favorite stacks on the slate and they’re not expensive. I would go with Bryce Harper ($5,100), Kyle Schwarber ($4,300) and Bryson Stott ($2,500) to start my Phillies stacks.
7. Taijuan Walker has a 5.09 xFIP this season
I feel like a broken record with Taijuan Walker at this point. He’s struck out more than three batters in just three of his eight starts this season and has an xFIP over 5.00, but still has a 2.88 ERA on the season. Needless to say, but stacking against him hasn’t worked up to this point. Nevertheless, the Padres are the perfect cheap and contrarian stack on this slate. Manny Machado is $5,600 on DraftKings, but he’s worth it and Jake Cronenworth ($4,100), Luke Voit ($2,700) and Jurickson Profar ($3,800) are all good values here. Trent Grisham at $2,600 is a surprising and ridiculous price that I also want to take advantage of here. Grisham is hitting just .175 this year, but he’s been unlucky as his .239 BABIP this season is over 40 points below his career .286 BABIP.
