Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Detroit is 22nd in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+ while striking out the second most against RHP
The elite matchup has Sonny Gray projected for the second-most DK points on the slate according to the Strikeout Model, yet he’s only $6,800.
One of the reasons Gray projects so well here is the fact that he has the best projected pitch-per-inning ratio on the slate at 14.6. This projected efficiency is coming in large part from Detroit’s inability to create much offense, but it’s also because they’re 18th in walk rate and 21st in pitches seen per plate appearance.
2. Corbin Burnes has a 61% chance to score at least 25 DK points
The threshold probabilities are my favorite part of the Strikeout Model, and they’re shining for Corbin Burnes. For context on how absurdly high this probability of at least 25 DK points is, note that no other pitcher comes close to a 60% likelihood of scoring at least 20 DK points, and only four are at least 60% likely to score 15-plus DK points.
Furthermore, Burnes’ probability of scoring at least 30 — 34% — is more than double the next-most likely 30-point performance.
3. Zach Plesac is allowing career highs in barrel rate and hard hit rate
His 10.8% barrel rate (fifth worst among starters) and 44% hard hit rate allowed screams that we should be attacking him, and it only gets worse from there (for him).
A drop in fastball velocity has caused his CSW to fall to a putrid 23.7% over the last 30 days and three of his four pitches (fastball, slider, and curveball) have lost runs this season — all of which are hit hard by the Astros.
Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are my top two bats on the slate.
4. Noah Syndergaard has allowed 12 stolen bases across six starts and 30 innings
Noah Syndergaard has already lost two runs to base-stealers this year, bringing his total to -19 rSB for his career, a truly incredible figure. This is particularly worrisome against the Rangers, who are tied for fourth in SBs.
As we saw in their last matchup, Syndergaard can get rattled and make mistakes when guys are on base and he’s worried about them taking off.
5. Josiah Gray is allowing a league-high (for starting pitchers) 14.8% barrel rate
This is not ideal when facing the Dodgers, who are seventh in barrel rate and fourth in hard hit rate. The saving grace for Gray could be the weather, as it’s cool with wind blowing in from right-center in DC.
That said, Gray’s 2.8 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters isn’t all that shocking considering the fact that his GB rate vs. lefties is under 25%.
Freddie Freeman should be the centerpiece of any Dodger stack, as his high line drive rate fits Gray’s fly-ball tendencies perfectly.
6. The Boston bullpen remains dead last in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit allowed
The White Sox project reasonably well against Nick Pivetta, including a .168 projected ISO. If they can get to him early and face extended innings of this bullpen, they could be GPP winners.
It’s been a mixed bag so far this season for Pivetta — his 10.2% barrel rate and 48.3% hard hit rate are terrible, but his 3.79 SIERA is the second best of his career. His 27.4% CSW is also the second best of his career. Consider the White Six a boom-or-bust stack Tuesday, but the boom could be enormous, especially since they do match up well with Pivetta’s fastball-slider-curve arsenal.
7. George Kirby has a 10.8% swinging strike rate
This is important to note because it supports what we already believe to be true for George Kirby — the strikeouts are coming. He struck out a third of the batters he faced in his debut against Tampa Bay but has since allowed his K rate to fall under 20% thanks to duds against the Mets and Red Sox.
Fortunately for Kirby, he’s back in a great matchup against the lowly Athletics and should be able to right the ship. I expect his K-rate Tuesday to be closer to the 25%-35% range that he’s posted at his various minor-league stops, making him my second-favorite value pitcher behind Sonny Gray and third-favorite pitcher overall on the slate.
