NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced.
Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Monday’s DFS slate.
1. 1.86
At this stage of his career, Zack Greinke is a shell of his Cy Young self, but he’s certainly still good for a spot start in DFS depending on the matchup. Targeting against the Angels has been quite profitable, but with Greinke, you basically can’t play him anywhere but home. He has a 3-1 record with a 1.86 ERA at home compared to a 0-5 record and 7.39 ERA away from Kauffman Stadium.
2. 1.355
Austin Riley has been out of this world in the month of July. He has put together an OPS of 1.355 through an OBP of .257 and slugging percentage of .897. His July would be even more monstrous if didn’t hit mostly solo home runs (10 total home runs this month). Add the fact that he has been crushing lefties like no other this season, I think he’s absolutely my favorite play of the day.
3. 32.2%
As NL Central mates, the Cubs and Pirates see a lot of each other, and accordingly, JT Brubaker has faced active Cubs batters 87 total times. He has done a hell of a job against them, maintaining a .291 xwOBA and putting up an impressive 32.2% K rate.
4. 47.7%
It’s amazing how many MLB players are getting regular playing time and doing absolutely nothing with it. Kole Calhoun in particular has had a hellacious month of July, striking out an inconceivable 47.7% of the time through his 65 plate appearances.
5. 0 and 0%
Consistency has been one of Max Fried’s worst enemies early on in his career, but he’s starting to settle down and show plenty of consistency this season. Amazingly, through his last five starts (against the Dodgers, Reds, Cardinals, Mets and Nationals), he has allowed a grand total of zero barrels for a 0% barrel rate allowed. I love targeting pitchers who allow weak contact, and that’s what Fried has been doing with regularity.
6. 6.61 and 6.41
Adam Oller is possibly the worst pitcher in Major League Baseball. Yes, he’s not as bad as his 8.56 ERA says he is, but to have a 6.61 xFIP and 6.41 xERA through 27.1 innings of ball says everything you need to know. He gives up a ton of contact and way too many home runs (2.63 HR/9). My guess is that the Astros will be popular tonight, but in the question of good chalk vs. bad chalk, I am thinking it’s likely going to be good chalk.
7. 89.5% and 19.7%
Don’t overlook the Rockies bats. I know it’s easy to overlook them on the road when they don’t have the luxury of hitting in Coors Field, but they are an above average team who makes a lot of contact with the ball and doesn’t strike out often. Their 89.5% zone contact rate in July is the best in baseball while their 19.7% K rate in July is the fourth lowest. Add the fact that they are one of the best teams against southpaws, I think they might be a sneaky stack in the final game of their series in Milwaukee.
