Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Monday’s DFS slate.
1. Carlos Rodón leads baseball with a 36.9% strikeout rate
Carlos Rodón is the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, and for good reason. Rodon has racked up 41 strikeouts through his first five starts (29 IP / 12.72 K/9) as a Giant. He has at least eight punchouts in four of those outings and has allowed one or zero runs in four of five. He’s yet to have a start where he’s allowed over three hits and two runs. He gave up two runs over six innings in his last start in Los Angeles against a tough Dodgers team. He checks in with a 1.55 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. The Rockies have been strong against lefties so far this season, but they’re a different team on the road.
2. The Reds have league-worst -1.4 WAR (-39 OFF & -6 DEF), according to FanGraphs
The Reds have won two of their last three games, but they came against the Pirates. This is a brutal baseball team that has only found a way to win five games so far. They’ll get their ace in Luis Castillo back, but he won’t help them at the dish. Cincinnati ranks second in K% (26.4%), 28th in wOBA (.275), 30th in wRC+ (73) and 28th in average (.204). The Pirates had a league-worst -135 OFF WAR last season, and I believe the Reds are on their way to top that mark. Brandon Woodruff faced this Cincinnati team last week and racked up 12 strikeouts over 5.2 innings. He’s projected for the most strikeouts on the slate, according to our MLB Strikeout Model.
3. Elieser Hernandez has a 52% fly ball rate this season
Elieser Hernandez’s 52 percent fly-ball rate is the fourth-highest in baseball among pitchers with 20 innings. He’s allowed at least one home run in four of his five starts and five bombs in two road games. His seven dingers allowed are just three off the league-lead. Arizona had a home run, three walks, five hits and five runs against Hernandez in his last start, which came in Miami. LHB have five homers against the Marlins’ pitcher, and they’re slashing .293/.364/.621 with a .423 wOBA. Arizona has eight left-handed bats in their lineup today, including Alek Thomas, who was called up over the weekend. Our MLB Optimizer has him as the best point per dollar play on the slate, as he’s only $2K on DK. Daulton Varsho will lead off and has a team-high six homers against RHP this season. David Peralta has four bombs and nine extra-base hits against righties. Hernandez has the highest projected ISO (.304) in our MLB Strikeout Model.
4. Kyle Hendricks has allowed the most hits on the slate
Kyle Hendricks has allowed 33 hits, 19 runs, six homers and 12 walks in his 30.1 innings. The Cubs pitcher has surrendered at least seven hits and four runs in three of his six starts. He’s rocking a career high 41.2% fly-ball rate and 3.56 BB/9. He’s given up 14 hits, 12 runs and four homers in two road starts (8 innings). Manny Machado is in the zone.
5. Zach Plesac has served up 27 home runs in his last 169 innings
The White Sox totaled 23 hits, 18 runs and three homers in four starts against Zach Plesac last season. He had a 38 percent fly-ball rate in 2021 that led to 23 homers, and his 40% rate has led to four homers this season. He has an alarming 81.3% contact rate and career-low 8.5 SwStr%. He’s not striking anybody out and not keeping the ball on the ground. That’s not going to work out well against this White Sox team that welcomes Yoán Moncada back. Luis Robert bomb coming.
6. The Oakland Athletics have a league-high 27 K%
The A’s have struck out more than anybody this season and enter tonight’s action dead last in wOBA (.262) as well as OBP (.264). Their 77 wRC+ ranks 29th and their .113 ISO ranks 27th. Michael Pineda only has eight strikeouts through 14.1 innings, but he got up to 85 pitches in his last game. If you’re playing 150 lineups on DraftKings, consider Pineda in a couple as a punt arm in the second pitcher slot. The A’s also have the second-highest SwStr% (13.1%).
7. Ranger Suárez has an 84% contact rate
Ranger Suárez has the highest contact rate on the slate among pitchers with 23 innings. Humberto Castellanos has an 86% contact rate, but he’s only had four starts this season and just tossed 5.2 scoreless innings in his last start against the same Marlins team he’ll get tonight. Right-handed batters have rocked Castellanos and Suarez this season, but I’m here to pick on Suarez and his $9.1K price on DK. He’s an easy fade, and I’d consider some of these right-handed Seattle bats in tournaments. Righties have four home runs against Suarez and are slashing .338/.402/.545 with a .416 wOBA. Consider Ty France, Eugenio Suárez and Julio Rodríguez.
