Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Monday’s DFS slate.
1. Corbin Burnes had at least nine strikeouts in eight of his 15 home starts in 2021.
Corbin Burnes is projected for 9.7 strikeouts tonight, which is a number he reached in eight of his 15 home starts last season (14-of-28 overall). Burns only has 12 strikeouts over 12 road innings to start 2021, but he fanned 10 over seven innings in his first home outing of the season last week. Not only do we have him for the most strikeouts in our Strikeout Model, he’s projected to score eight more points than the next-closest pitcher on DraftKings. The Giants are scrappy at the plate, but they enter with a top-12 K% and SwStr%.
2. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a league-high 27.5 K% against right-handed pitchers.
Through 15.2 innings, Walker Buehler has a career-low 16.2 K% and 6.32 K/9. He only has 11 punchouts after racking up 212 in 207.2 innings last season (26 K% & 9.19 K/9). Buehler’s fastball is also sitting at a career-low 94.5 MPH (96.1 MPH for his career), and his 3.45 BB/9 is the highest it’s been since his rookie season in 2017. To be fair, he’s only had three starts. Having said that, if he isn’t able to flirt with 6+ strikeouts tonight, then there may be something going on. The Diamondbacks enter with the fourth-highest strikeout rate, (25.5%), a bottom-10 OBP (.286) and wOBA (.289), to go along with a league-high 27.5 K% vs. RHP.
3. Kyle Freeland has the highest projected ISO on the slate.
Kyle Freeland checks in with a .279 projected ISO in our Strikeout Model. How did Eric Lauer manage to toss six scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts against the Phillies yesterday? What happened there? Maybe people will shy away from the Philadelphia offense today because of it, but I wouldn’t. Freeland has an 80.7% contact rate on the season, and his career mark is at 81%. He’s coughed up 20 hits and 12 ER through 14 innings.
4. Max Scherzer ranks third in pitches per start with 92.7.
There are only eight pitchers who are averaging at least 90 pitches per start, and two of them are on the slate tonight. The other is Corbin Burnes (95.7), who checks in second behind Chris Bassitt (96). Max Scherzer is fresh off a start where he threw 102 pitches, which is rare in today’s game. He has the tougher matchup, as the Cardinals rank dead last in K% vs RHP (18%). But Scherzer is $1K cheaper on DK. I lean Burnes but have no issue with Max. The Mets’ pitcher totaled 22 strikeouts in two starts against STL last season (14 IP).
5. Shane Bieber is averaging a career-low 90.7 MPH on his fastball.
Like Buehler, Shane Bieber has seen a dip in velocity on his fastball this season. His career mark is at 93.1 MPH, and he sat at 92.8 MPH last season. He’s been relying on his slider a career-high 40% of the time, and it’s resulted in a career-high 41% fly ball rate. Bieber has yet to allow a bomb this season but coughed up 31 of them in 2019. Only Toronto has more home runs (22) than the Angels (21). Bieber struggled against LHB more than RHP last season, and Brandon Marsh checks in with a team-high .400 average and three doubles. He’s second behind Mike Trout with a .257 wRC+ and .526 wOBA thanks to two homers.
6. Dane Dunning has a league-high 53.8% hard-hit rate.
Dane Dunning has only tossed 12.2 innings, but he’s been roughed up pretty good over his three starts. The Rangers’ pitcher has allowed eight runs, two homers, seven walks and 17 hits so far (5.62 ERA & 4.97 BB/9). The Astros rank fifth in hard-hit rate and eighth in contact percentage. It could be another long night for Dunning.
7. The Dodgers rank third in wOBA vs RHP.
This really isn’t a shocker or a crazy good stat, but the Dodgers have the third-best team wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season (.349). They rank fifth in wRC+ (131), fourth in ISO (.177) and third in OPS (.779). The Dodgers will be chalk tonight and deserve to be. Merrill Kelly faced Los Angeles four times last season and allowed 11 runs on 28 hits (23 IP). Fourteen of the 21 bombs Kelly allowed last season were against righties. However, lefty bats Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger have combined for five home runs against RHP.
