Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture.
These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. 24.9%
Sean Manaea has been struggling for a while now, as evidenced by his 24.9% CSW over the last 30 days. This is three percentage points below his baseline, and his Statcast data tells a similar story:
We shouldn’t be surprised that his baseline numbers are high, considering his baseline ISO allowed is a whopping .192. However, they’re not high compared to what he’s allowed in the last 30 days. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate have both soared, despite some softer matchups. Friday is not a soft matchup — it’s the Dodgers.
2. 151.4
Speaking of the Dodgers, they’ve hammered left-handed pitching to the tune of a 151.4 wRC+ and a .254 ISO over the last 30 days. The name recognition of Manaea is keeping people away, which gives us the gift of a contrarian offense in an incredible spot.
3. 24.5%
Robbie Ray will be over 50% in single-entries, and there’s no question he projects well. However, his CSW has fallen to 24.5% over the last 30 days, three percentage points below his baseline. The Angels may not be capable of truly punishing him for a lack of command, but I do still think this trend introduces enough risk to warrant fading Ray.
4. 32.1%
The best CSW on the slate over the last 30 days belongs to José Berríos, at 32.1%. This uptick in CSW is accompanied by an increase in his slider/curveball usage, making it even more likely to continue than if it came out of the blue for seemingly no reason.
The Twins are a dangerous order at the top of the lineup, but then drop off significantly toward the bottom. I think this makes Berrios a high-risk/high-reward type of play, which is exactly what we want from someone who may be as low as 5% rostered.
5. 33.4%
Dylan Cease is the only pitcher on the slate with a baseline K rate over 30% and it’s as high as 33.4%. His 3.25 SIERA is also a slate best. Add in an above-average matchup with the Rangers and Cease as SP1 may be just as easy of a decision as a five-man Dodger stack… if we can afford it.
6. 50%
Josh Winckowski’s Statcast data trend looks a lot like Manaea’s, including a 50% hard-hit rate allowed over the last 30 days:
The Royals aren’t especially equipped to take advantage of this matchup as a whole, but Salvador Perez sure is — he has a 28.6% barrel rate since returning from the IL, as well as a 93.8 mph average exit velocity. As much as I love the Dodgers Friday, Sal gets the edge as the top catcher on the slate over Will Smith for me.
7. 93.7 mph
In the last 30 days, no Dodger has hit the ball harder than Trayce Thompson and his 93.7 mph average. His hard-hit rate is at 50% and he’s third on the team in that time with an 11.2% barrel rate. He’s simply a great hitter, not yet priced as such on DraftKings. How do you comfortably fit Dylan Cease with a five-man Dodger stack? Trayce Thompson is step 1.
