Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. 20.3%
Bryan Garcia is getting the start for the Tigers, but I’m not sure why. His baseline 20.3% barrel rate is one of the highest we’ll see all season, and it’s not the smallest sample — 15.1 IP and 59 batted balls.
He’s allowed a hard-hit ball over 50% of the time and his 6.07 xFIP from a season ago may actually be more impressive than the 5.60 xFIP he’s posted in AAA this year.
As if all of that isn’t enough, he’s also in the process of being converted from a reliever into a starter, which typically has an adverse effect on a pitcher’s numbers. How much worse can it possibly get for Garcia? The Blue Jays are about to show us.
2. 5.03
Prior to this season, Aníbal Sánchez last pitched in 2020, where he posted a 5.03 SIERA. Interestingly, he was even worse against righties, with a 5.69 xFIP and a .288 ISO allowed. His career barrel rate nearly doubled that season to 9.4%, too.
In other words, Sánchez should have left the game for good, because he’s as washed as washed gets.
Since his reverse-splits are backed up by his pitch-mix (changeup is his primary off-speed pitch), I want to lean on the stud St. Louis righties.
3. 33.2%
In the last 30 days, Bailey Falter’s 33.2% CSW is second to Brandon Woodruff on the slate. This CSW, coupled with K rates over 30% in each of his last two AAA stints, suggests his 22% K rate is almost certain to improve as time goes on.
Of course, when a pitcher is looking for some positive regression, it helps to face Pittsburgh. They have a wRC+ of 44.1 since the All-Star break and have struck out 27.5% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.
Falter’s $5,900 price tag could be the key to fitting in all of the incredible bats we want.
4. 3.75
Despite what you might think when seeing Lance Lynn’s 6.43 ERA, he’s actually been good. His SIERA since the Spider Tack ban a year ago is a rock-solid 3.75, and it’s 3.76 this year. His 21.8% K rate this season is well down from his previous averages, but there’s been no change in his CSW or swinging strike rate. We should expect his K rate and ERA to rapidly revert to his means, and Oakland is another matchup that can help make that happen.
Lynn + Falter + all the bats?
5. 126
The Yankees 126 wRC+ and .344 wOBA vs. lefties this year are both No. 1 for a team against either hand. That spells enormous trouble for Kris Bubic and his climbing hard-hit rate allowed (over 46% in the last 30 days).
He loses runs with all three of his fastball-changeup-curveball offerings, so good luck to him when trying to keep Aaron Judge in the yard. His one saving grace is that Giancarlo Stanton would have had just as good of a pitch-mix matchup as Judge, but he’s on the IL.
6. 4.71
4.71 is Madison Bumgarner’s baseline SIERA. The Braves have destroyed left-handed pitching all year (and right-handed pitch, for that matter) and Bumgarner is backed by a poor bullpen.
Bumgarner’s xFIP to lefties this season has been even worse, at 5.29 thanks to his reliance on his changeup, so lock in Michael Harris II and Matt Olson to guarantee you have a unique stack and watch the money pour in.
The Braves are third in Kyle Murray’s Edge %, and I bet they’d jump to first with a focus on those lefties since it vastly decreases the ownership of the stack.
7. 28.7%
In the last 14 days, the Red Sox have struck out an absurd 28.7% of the time. Couple that with Brandon Woodruff’s 35.2% CSW over the last 30 days and you get my favorite pay-up option at pitcher, and a clear pivot off of Gerrit Cole.
In fact, Woodruff is projected for more Ks and has higher threshold probabilities in the Strikeout Model as a result.
