Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. The Rockies are scoring 3.08 runs per game on the road this season, 28th in baseball
The Colorado Rockies are in the top 10 in runs scored this season, but the Rockies do their offensive damage at home, while it’s a different story on the road. This is a great matchup for Joe Musgrove, who has a 1.64 ERA on the season. The Rockies lineup doesn’t have much power outside of C.J. Cron and Charlie Blackmon, who each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. Musgrove has a 3.84 xFIP, 25% K%, 5% BB%, 46% ground ball percentage on the season. He’s my top pitcher on the slate.
2. Cubs hitters have struck out 486 times, 10th in baseball this season
The Cubs are facing the Yankees on the road here, and I like this matchup for Luis Severino. The Cubs only have two hitters in the lineup with ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season in Patrick Wisdom and rookie Christopher Morel. Severino has a 4.01 xFIP, 27% K%, 6% BB%, and 41% ground ball percentage on the season. He’s been consistently good recently as in three of his last four starts he’s had a quality start and struck out at least seven batters. Severino is my second-favorite spend-up option.
3. Spencer Strider has a 36% K% this season
Spencer Strider has only made two starts for the Braves this season, and he’s failed to complete five innings both times, but the strikeout upside should be obvious. Strider struck out at least five batters in his two starts and the Pirates only have one hitter in their projected lineup with a K% below 20% against right-handed pitching this season. Dan Vogelbach is the only hitter in the Pirates projected lineup with an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. The Braves should beat the Pirates which gives Strider upside for getting the win if he can complete five innings for the first time. He has to be considered one of the best values on DraftKings at $7,000.
4. Kyle Gibson has allowed an .066 ISO to left-handed hitters
Kyle Gibson is a solid pitcher. He has a 3.84 xFIP, 21% K%, 7% BB% and 48% ground ball percentage on the season. The Diamondbacks have some power in their lineup, but all of their hitters are left-handed beside first baseman Christian Walker. Arizona only has two hitters in their projected lineup with a K% below 20% this season. With the Phillies surging after the firing of Joe Girardi, I think Gibson keeps their streak going and picks up the win here. He’s my favorite contrarian value pitcher at $7,100 on DraftKings.
5. Erick Fedde has allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts
Erick Fedde’s last two starts against the Reds and Mets on the road have gone horribly. He failed to complete five innings and allowed at least four earned runs in both starts. Fedde has a 4.92 xFIP, 18% K%, 10% BB%, and 45% ground ball percentage on the season. The Brewers aren’t expensive as Christian Yelich is $4,000 on DraftKings and Washington is a good ballpark for hitters. Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, and Jace Peterson all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. The Brewers are my top stack on the slate.
6. Chad Kuhl has a 4.99 xFIP
Chad Kuhl hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last three starts and has a 3.17 ERA on the season. Still, his xFIP is much higher. Kuhl has an 18% K%, 8% BB%, and 39% ground ball percentage this season. This is a profile we can attack. Kuhl has also allowed a .216 ISO to left-handed hitters this season. Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth are the bats to prioritize alongside Manny Machado in Padres stacks.
7. Jakob Junis has allowed a .194 ISO to left-handed hitters
The Dodgers are expensive as usual. Jakob Junis has been good lately as he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last three starts. That makes the Dodgers tough to stack, but I think there’s a way to do it using a few left-handed hitters from the Dodgers. Freddie Freeman has homered once since April, but his price is down to $5,000 on DraftKings, and he did have a .215 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. Cody Bellinger has a .240 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and is only $3,900 on DraftKings. Those are the two bats I would focus on to get some low-rostered Dodgers and go homer hunting against Junis.
