Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Based on how balls have left the bat, home runs have happened 38% below expectation
Furthermore, that number is actually getting worse:
Sustained rallies and extra base hits are the key to winning GPPs now, unless you happen to strike gold on a 3-HR game, like Anthony Rizzo’s from a few days ago.
2. The Guardians have a 74.9 wRC+ over the last 14 days
Despite a blistering start resulting in an overall 125.9 wRC+, this offense is sputtering to say the least. In the last seven days, their wRC+ is all the way down to 60.5.
They’re also striking out more, with a 24% K-rate over the last 14 days compared to just 21% on the season.
Frankie Montas is the Strikeout Model’s top-projected pitcher.
(Build your MLB DFS lineup with our Optimizer!)
3. The Reds have eight hitters priced under $3k
DraftKings has made some egregious pricing errors this year, specifically with the Twins and Braves. We can now add the Reds to the list, and this time it’s extra bewildering since Cincinnati is in Coors Field.
On a 13-game slate, the rostership likely won’t reach a level where it makes sense to fully fade these guys.
4. So far in 2022, Antonio Senzatela is allowing a career high barrel rate and exit velocity
He’s also striking out batters at a career-low rate with a CSW under 20% (typically averages 25%). Add in Coors Field and the pricing error on CIN hitters and this becomes a core stack. Which means we need to dive into the pitch mix matchup to find some hitters to build around…
5. Senzatela throws his slider over 30% of the time and loses two-thirds of a run per 100 pitches with it
His curveball and changeup are even worse, hence his steady commitment to the slider. He also throws predominantly traditional fastballs and though it’s been a strong pitch in the past, it’s been entirely ineffective to start the season. Hitters who benefit from the fastball-slider combination are (in order of preference):
6. Madison Bumgarner has a 25.2% CSW, 2.5 percentage points below his baseline
Madison Bumgarner’s 1.00 ERA tells a vastly different story than Bumgarner’s peripherals. In addition to the lower CSW, his strikeout rate is just four percentage points above his walk rate (17.3% to 13.3%). Our very own Vlad Sedler put it bluntly:
(More: Check out Vlad Sedler’s look at the Friday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
7. Spencer Howard can’t stop allowing home runs, but his 36.4% CSW is elite, and eight percentage points above his baseline.
Five HRs in five innings is quite a feat considering the overall decrease in HRs around the league. Additionally, it’s unfortunately not out of character for Spencer Howard, who now owns a baseline ISO allowed of .231.
Furthermore, this Texas bullpen is well below average no matter how you look at it — they’re bottom 10 in SIERA, bottom 10 in ISO allowed to each hand, and bottom 15 in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate allowed.
All of that said, we perhaps shouldn’t be so quick to stack the Braves against him. His CSW is incredibly impressive so far this year, resulting in a 39% K rate. The sample is incredibly small for him, and he won’t go deep into the game (meaning more innings against the attackable bullpen), but if you’re confused about why ATL’s implied run total is just 4.7, Howard’s vastly improved peripherals could be the reason.
