Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. Cristian Javier has a 41% K% against right-handed batters
The Oakland Athletics have just three left-handed hitters in their projected lineup, which gives Cristian Javier a little added strikeout upside in this matchup. He struggled a little bit with the strikeouts in his first start after the All-Star break, as he struck out just three batters against the big bad Yankees. This after a stretch of four games where he struck out at least seven every time and struck out at least 10 three times. His xFIP is still 4.34, which is quite a bit higher than his 3.13 ERA. The Athletics on the road are a great matchup for Javier, though, as Oakland is last in all of baseball averaging 2.84 runs per game at home this year.
2. The Angels are 26th in baseball with 3.60 runs per game on the road
Brad Keller has a 4.16 ERA, 4.82 xFIP, 15% K%, 8% BB% and 52% ground ball percentage this year. Is he the best pitcher in the league? No, he’s not even the best pitcher on the Royals at the moment (Brady Singer). Still, it’s a good matchup against the Angels at home for Keller, who is very cheap at $6,100 on DraftKings this afternoon. While the Angels still have some power in the lineup even without Mike Trout as Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward and Jared Walsh each have ISOs above .190 against right-handed pitching this season, Keller’s saving grace is his ability to keep the ball on the ground as his ground ball percentage is over 50% against both right and left-handed batters. Keller is my favorite value pitcher on the afternoon slate.
3. Antonio Senzatela has a 4.86 xFIP
Antonio Senzatela has pitched better at home this year with a 4.02 ERA compared to a 6.57 ERA on the road. Still, he has a high xFIP, 12% K%, 5% BB% and 42% ground ball percentage. None of those numbers stand out so I believe we can attack Senzatela here with some Chicago bats. The White Sox have the highest implied team run total on the slate after all. Senzatela has allowed a .215 ISO to right-handed hitters this year compared to .121 against left-handed hitters. I would look to prioritize right-handed power bats like José Abreu, Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn in my White Sox stacks.
4. Janson Junk had a 5.65 xFIP in 10 starts with Triple-A
Janson Junk has thrown one inning in the majors this year, but in the minors he had a 20% K% and 5% BB% in 48.2 innings. I expect his numbers to be a little bit worse in the major leagues given the level of competition. Bobby Witt Jr. is unfortunately not in the Royals lineup once again, but the top three in this lineup are very solid in Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield and MJ Melendez. Michael Taylor is a good value piece in Royals stacks too at minimum price on DraftKings this afternoon.
5. Chris Archer has a 5.52 xFIP
Chris Archer has a 3.41 ERA and hasn’t been hit hard at all lately, but with his xFIP over two runs higher than his ERA, it’s only a matter of time before he gets hit pretty hard. The Brewers are as good a team as any to put up a big score given the power up and down their lineup. Archer has allowed a .170 ISO to right-handed batters this season so I would look to prioritize some of the right-handed hitters in my Brewers stacks. Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe each have ISOs above .250 against right-handed pitching this season. Tyrone Taylor has a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching this year and Luis Urías has a .178 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Nobody on the Brewers is expensive other than Adames, who’s $5,300 on DraftKings.
