MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Monday’s DFS slate.
1. .457
After dealing with a bunch of injuries throughout May, Mike Trout has rebounded in the month of June. He remains a major threat at the plate and is second in the league with a .457 ISO in the month of June, which has certainly contributed to his nine home runs throughout the month. As an Angels fan, here’s hoping that yesterday’s Royal Rumble against the Mariners will lead to bigger and better things from the Halos moving forward.
2. 15.2%
At the other end of the spectrum, Triston McKenzie has had an absolutely miserable month of June. He has gotten plastered for eight home runs and 14 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings pitched. That isn’t necessarily horrid, but the underlying stats don’t really like what they’re seeing from him. His 15.2% barrel rate over the last four weeks is EXTREMELY high. He’s someone who throws his fastball a high percentage of the time, to the point where he throws it the second most of all starting pitchers in baseball. Some notable Twins who have been crushing fastballs are Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnach. Insert all the red flag emojis you have, because numbers like that don’t really give me much confidence for him against any half-decent offense.
3. 4.09
When you’re a pitcher who’s brought up through the Rockies system, it’s almost like you have to have some type of PTSD. Name one pitcher who started their career as a Rocky that became…. good? I don’t think the answer to that question exists, but I guess you might have to count Tyler Anderson with the nice start he’s been able to put together with the Dodgers. In Colorado, there’s going to be plenty of mayhem forcing the Coors players into lineups, but that doesn’t always work out. Anderson has been rock solid in his post-Colorado career, and believe it or not, he’s always been pretty solid as a whole at Coors Field. He’s posted an 11-14 record, 4.09 ERA and 8.3 K/9. Are we using him though? Eh, I don’t think so. The Rockies don’t do many things consistently well, but they are much better when facing lefties, with a .349 wOBA, which is second in baseball.
4. 94.9%
Noah Syndergaard is the absolute worst pitcher in the league when it comes to holding runners on base. His 56 stolen bases allowed over the last four seasons and 94.9% SB success rate allowed is good enough for the worst and third-worst in all of baseball respectively. The thing about the White Sox is their speedsters aren’t shy about turning on the jets, with Luis Robert stealing 11, Adam Engel stealing 9 and Tim Anderson stealing 8 bases this season. Engel is on the IL, so focus on Lou Bob and Anderson, and I’d say we can confidently project them for SB points tonight.
5. 2.86
Some of these last few outings for Kevin Gausman have been cause for concern, but he’s far from what I’ve tried to outline in the decline of his teammate, José Berríos. Gausman’s underlying stats are still generally okay, and to me, his 2.86 xFIP in 2022 really proves it. The main reason I’m bringing that up is you probably need to include him in your pitcher pool tonight EVEN THOUGH he faces a scary Red Sox lineup. As far as upside is concerned, I don’t know if there’s any other pitcher going tonight that can touch him.
