Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Wednesday’s slate.
1. Chris Paddack had a 3.87 xFIP last year
While the Dodgers will likely be a popular stack Wednesday for good reason, it’s at least worth noting Chris Paddack was perhaps unlucky last year. His ERA was 5.07, but his estimators were all lower as his xERA was 4.69 and FIP was 3.78. A big factor in Paddack’s ultimate ERA last year was his 60% strand rate. That’s some really bad luck after posting strand rates of 75% and 76% in the first two years of his career.
2. Cleveland leads the majors in runs with 28
The Guardians have impressed at the plate so far this season, and Wednesday they get a matchup with a rookie pitcher in a hitters’ ballpark. Cleveland has been an overlooked stack this year, and on a slate of this size they might be once again. While everyone is talking about Steven Kwan, who is finally priced up to $3,400, Owen Miller is 8-for-16 to start the season and breakout candidate Andrés Giménez hit a home run Tuesday. The Guardians offense is getting it from everywhere right now.
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3. Bryce Harper has one home run against Max Scherzer in 12 at-bats
Max Scherzer obviously isn’t someone you stack against, and Bryce Harper is priced all the way up at $6,000, but he’s Bryce Harper. The reigning National League MVP had a .384 ISO against right-handed pitching last year. The Phillies will also be at home for this matchup with the Mets and 19 of Harper’s 35 home runs last year came at home.
4. Eduardo Rodríguez had a 44% GB% against right-handed batters last year
The Red Sox were able to comeback from a 3-0 deficit Tuesday against the Tigers after dropping the first game of the series. Despite the loss for the Tigers, starter Tyler Alexander may have laid a blueprint for Eduardo Rodríguez here. Alexander induced six ground ball outs in his 5.1 innings of work along with four strikeouts. Rodriguez is a better pitcher than Alexander and he’ll want to show it against his former team. In order to do that he’ll have to keep the ball on the ground.
5. Zack Greinke allowed a .215 ISO to right-handed batters last year
Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (.229 ISO against right-handed pitching last year) is swinging a hot bat as he hit his third home run of the season Tuesday night. Tyler O’Neill (.266) and Paul DeJong (.207) also posted ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching last year.
6. Robbie Ray allowed a .198 ISO to right-handed batters last year
The White Sox have a deep group of power hitting right-handed hitters. In fact, Chicago has four players that had ISOs above .280 against left-handed pitching last year in Luis Robert (.366), José Abreu (.305), Yasmani Grandal (.321), and Andrew Vaughn (.280).
7. Mitch Haniger had a .305 ISO against left-handed pitching last year
J.D. Martinez and Nelson Cruz are the two players that come to mind the most as players you want to lock in against left-handed pitching, but Mitch Haniger is right up there with them. He’ll be facing Dallas Keuchel, who allowed a .194 ISO to right-handed batters last year.
8. José Berríos pitched 0.1 innings in his first start
José Berríos allowed three hits, one home run and four earned runs in his first start of the season against Texas. If he doesn’t have his issues figured out, he might be in for another short outing against the Yankees on the road here. Yusei Kikuchi started for the Blue Jays Tuesday, and New York made lots of loud contact throughout the game despite scoring only four runs.
(More: Check out Vlad Sedler’s look at the Wednesday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
9. Corbin Burnes walked three batters in his first start
After striking out 58 batters before walking a single one last year (an MLB record), Corbin Burnes walked the first batter he faced in 2022. That’s baseball for you. Perhaps the Orioles aren’t the team to pick on with starting pitchers right now. While they strike out a lot and don’t score a ton of runs, no starting pitcher has been able to complete five innings against them yet.
10. Nathan Eovaldi’s road ERA last year was 4.21
Nathan Eovaldi had a nice bounceback season for Boston in 2021, and it carried over to his first start of the year, where he went five innings and struck out seven batters. However, most of the production came from Eovaldi’s 19 home starts where he had a 3.47 ERA in 19 starts. The Red Sox continue their road trip to start the season with Eovaldi’s start in Detroit Wednesday.
