Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Rookies — you can’t live with them, and you can’t live without them. In my first ever published fantasy baseball article back in March of 2017, my opening sentence included the phrase, “Everyone is looking for the next big thing.” Well, it might be nearly eight years later, but those words still ring true today. The “what if” game and FOMO remain as prevalent as ever in fantasy baseball especially with how many prospects have become elite players early in their careers. But when you play the what if game or give in to FOMO, another term often comes into play down the road… Buyer’s remorse.
When I wrote that article, players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, Bobby Witt Jr. and others weren’t even remotely close to being on the redraft radar yet. They weren’t even a twinkle in our eye yet outside of dynasty leagues. But we’ve been spoiled to the point where the FOMO factor continues to soar to new heights each and every season. And for redraft leagues, that directly impacts our FAAB budget throughout the season.
Outside of doing hours upon hours of manual labor, I’m not sure how to find out the exact percentage, but I’d be willing to bet a sizeable chunk of change that the two biggest slices of the FAAB pie every season belong to prospective save targets and prospects who just got the call. Both have their risks and rewards, especially prospects as the range of outcomes is more random and unpredictable than an Ángel Hernández strike zone.
As someone who covers prospects within my content, I’ve become more and more opposed to drafting or targeting them in redraft leagues. Sure, there will always be prospects I feel strongly about who I’ll go after, but I’ve learned that you’re more likely to burn FAAB by spending big on a debuting prospect and there’s a much lower chance of a prospect turning a positive ROI for you in that season when you’re spending over 10% of your FAAB.
Let’s look at one of my own investments. On the May 5 FAAB run, I spent $279 on Christian Scott (runner up was 234). In other leagues I was in, he went for over $300 in some of them. And what did spending over a quarter of my FAAB budget get me? A 4.56 ERA over nine starts before Scott landed on the IL. How about Tyler Black, who was added during that same FAAB period for 10% or more in most leagues? Does a .204 average and zero home runs in 57 plate appearances feel like a sufficient return for that FAAB investment? Obviously not.
Now, those were only two examples and there are several examples of FAAB bids on prospects working out. Those that spent in the 10-20% range on Jackson Merrill when the season started were likely feeling good about their investment at the end of the season. However, the Scott/Black results vastly outnumber the Merrill results when it comes to debuting prospects. That was exactly the case once again this year with the top prospects that debuted.
Entering the season, my top 10 prospects were Wyatt Langford, Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, Junior Caminero, Jordan Lawlar, Dylan Crews, Evan Carter, Chase DeLauter, James Wood and Noelvi Marte. Holliday came up in April and had two hits in 10 games with a 50% strikeout rate. He performed a bit better during his second stint later in the season but still finished with a .189/.255/.311 slash line in 208 plate appearances this season. It doesn’t matter if you drafted him or used a sizeable chunk of your FAAB to pick him up, Holliday provided you with a negative ROI.
This was one of the “can’t miss” prospects who was supposed to hit the ground running given his advanced hit tool. Even Wyatt Langford was underwhelming until the final 5-6 weeks of the season when he was one of the best hitters in baseball.
Going from one Jackson to another, Jackson Chourio became the youngest player to go 20/20 in their rookie season, finishing with 80 runs, 21 home runs, 79 RBIs, 22 steals and a .275/.327/.464 slash line. So while one Jackson struggled mightily, the other Jackson had an incredible rookie season. This just shows how unpredictable prospect can be, even the ones deemed to be future all-stars. Heck, even Mike Trout slashed .220/.281/.390 in 40 games back in 2011 before he turned into one of the best players of all-time.
Let’s keep it going with three more names from my top-10 in Crews, Marte and Wood. Marte missed the first half of the season due to suspension and was one of the worst hitters in baseball once he returned. Meanwhile, Crews had underwhelming surface stats despite his metrics looking solid under the hood. No matter what you spent on those two, they were negative ROI players this season. On the flip side, James Wood performed very well, slashing .264/.354/.427 with nine home runs and 14 steals in 79 games. That’s basically a 20/30 pace. But was it good enough to warrant FAAB bids that exceeded $400 in some leagues I was in? I’d argue that Wood could be considered a negative ROI as well given how much he went for.
A top prospect struggling in his initial taste of the big leagues doesn’t decide his future, and it sure as heck doesn’t mean he’s not going to be a good player and provide fantasy value down the road. For all we know, Holliday could make adjustments this offseason and come back with a vengeance in 2025. The same could be true for his teammate Coby Mayo, who also had notable struggles with Baltimore despite tearing up Triple-A throughout the season.
I could dive into dozens of other examples from this season and break down many other rookie seasons but I’d just be beating a dead horse as the message would remain the same no matter how many examples I provide. We’re always going to have rookie seasons like Chourio and Merrill, but for every two of them we have 10 Hollidays and Mayos.
“So it’s sounding like you’re telling me to never target a prospect in redraft. Is that the case, Eric?”
No, that’s not the case whatsoever. But what I am saying is that spending 10%-plus of your FAAB budget is risky enough and especially when you get up over 25%. And I’m guilty of it myself as evident with my Christian Scott bid from earlier in the season. Imagine what I could’ve done with that $279 if I allocated that elsewhere! I could’ve gotten a dozen players that could’ve helped me in some way. But instead, I left myself with 72% of my budget to try and make the necessary moves to try and win that league. And where did I finish in that league you ask? 10th. Was that the sole reason why I didn’t do well in that league? No. But it definitely played a significant role.
What I’ve tried to do (not always successfully) is go after some of the prospects who go in the 2-6% range of my FAAB budget. One prime example of this is Spencer Schwellenbach, who I picked up for $22 on the June 23 FAAB run in that same league that I wasted $279 on Scott. Even though he wasn’t as highly touted as Scott and costed less than a 10th of the price, Schwellenbach went on to have an incredible rookie season, finishing with a 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a 20.8% K-BB rate in 21 starts for Atlanta.
Not every 2-6% investment will turn out like Schwellenbach, but I’d rather make several of those investments in the hopes that one does exceed expectations rather than put all of my eggs in one costly basket and hope they can return a positive ROI. And even if Scott had pitched decently, getting a positive ROI investment for that $279 price tag meant he would’ve had to have pitched as good as Schwellenbach did or even better. Those types of rookie seasons just don’t happen often.
The moral of this story is that prospects are incredibly unpredictable and spending large amounts of FAAB on them is going to burn you way more frequently than it will work out for you. If your main objective with fantasy baseball is to have fun, then by all means, go ahead and splurge your heart out like Julia Roberts on Rodeo Drive in Pretty Woman. But winning leagues and money is fun too right? Sure it is. And splurging like that puts your team behind the eight ball more often than not.
I’m going to try and practice what I preach more often in 2025 and beyond and live more in that 2-6% range, trying to find the next Spencer Schwellenbach or Lawrence Butler. And if a few of those investments don’t work out, at least my FAAB budget didn’t take too sizeable of a hit.
