Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
College football’s bowl season really kicks into high gear this week, with Thursday offering the Peach Bowl as the highlight and several other big games as well. Below, we’re taking a look at some of Thursday’s top college football DFS plays on PrizePicks.
How to Play College Football PrizePicks
If you’re new to PrizePicks in general, or new to playing CFB contests on PrizePicks, I wanted to quickly go over the format and strategy so that we are up to speed and more or less speaking the same language with regard to our selections. PrizePicks is essentially a vehicle for parlaying props that we like, and the big differentiator is that they will allow more correlation than most books will allow (i.e. taking a QB’s passing yards and two of his pass catchers’ receiving yards props — presumably either all over or all under). Another differentiator for CFB in particular, especially if you are coming over from the NFL side, is that in CFB, QB sack yardage counts negatively against QB rushing yards, so if you have a mobile QB who you think will run a fair amount and you think his rushing yards total looks bonkers low, that is why. It is also why you will see pocket passer types have negative rushing yard projections — they are projecting sack yardage. I don’t have a particular angle here and these numbers are usually pretty sharp, but it is extremely important to be aware of if you are making QB rushing yardage PrizePicks selections specifically.
Now since we are in both COVID-19 and bowl season, I’ll also need to make the disclaimer that you will want to have a good feel for the overall level of team motivation and player availability before you dive into your PrizePicks players. When there is a mismatch in motivation or availability, that can lead to one sided results and guys who should be in smash spots to hit their overs (QB passing yards and RB rushing yards are particularly susceptible to volume issues) not getting there because garbage time essentially started too early. By the same token, if you get wind of a rash of defensive opt outs or a position group being wiped out by COVID-19, and it is something actionable like D-Lineman or starting LBs, you can be more aggressive on a rushing yards prop for the opposing RB than you might otherwise be.
With all of that out of the way, let’s dive into some picks that I like for the Thursday slate — keep in mind these numbers are not static and they will change if there is too much action on one side of them, so if you want to tail these, make sure you are getting the number I’m targeting (or better) before diving in.
I’ve listed four of my favorite plays below, so pair all four of them together for the ultimate 10X payout, add one of them on to one you like for the 3X payout, or anything in between.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
CFB PrizePicks for December 30
Here are some of my favorite college football PrizePicks plays for the Thursday bowls.
Jordan Addison OVER 5.5 Receptions
Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett isn’t playing in this one, and that lowers our overall projection for Addison, but do you really think that even backup QB Nick Patti won’t be looking to Addison, one of the best WRs in the country, at every opportunity? The completions may be for short yardage, but that is even better if we are chasing the over on a receptions prop, as we know low-aDOT targets have a higher completion percentage. I would be more surprised if Addison ended up with 5 or fewer receptions than if he ended up with double-digits.
Sam Howell OVER 17.5 Completions
Howell wouldn’t be playing in an otherwise meaningless game if it weren’t to show out and pump his draft stock as much as possible. He shouldn’t have much trouble carving up South Carolina, who ended their season being blanked 30-0 by Clemson. The Gamecocks will have plenty of trouble covering Josh Downs, and any extra attention they give him should open up other opportunities for easy completions to Antoine Green and the rest of the crew.
Braelon Allen OVER 18.5 Fantasy Points
Allen is extremely good, you see. Not only is he extremely good, the time off will allow him to rest after getting banged up in the midst of several 20-carry games to finish the season. He should see the regular allotment here, as well as almost all of the red zone and goal line work — every time Wisconsin has it inside the 10, they seem to turn to Allen. Throw in some passing game work and he is damn near a full bell cow back. The matchup is a tough one on paper, and but Arizona State has plenty of opt outs and may have trouble moving the ball in this one without their top 2 RBs (Rachaad White is off the NFL and Chip Trayanum is going to go play LB for Ohio State a la Steele Chambers), which would lead to extra possessions for Allen to do his thing.
Jackson Anthrop OVER 4.5 Receptions
Purdue will be throwing plenty, chasing a fast-paced and efficient offense led by a returning Hendon Hooker and Cedric Tillman for Tennessee, and this game has the highest total on the Thursday slate with Purdue as nearly a TD dog. Further, Anthrop, who has been force fed low-aDOT targets all season but played third fiddle to David Bell and Milton Wright, won’t have to worry about as much competition for targets with Bell declaring for the draft and skipping the bowl game and Wright declared academically ineligible. Anthrop should be a good bet for increased targets, and if he maintains a similar route tree, the familiarity between him and Aidan O’Connell should lead to him piling up receptions here.
