Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After a handful of decent-sized NBA DFS slates, Thursday presents just four games around the league. Of course, with how things are going around the league right now, even a small slate will feature plenty of news to pay attention to.
Of course, pair all of the tremendous content with the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for December 30 | NBA DFS First Look
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -5, total: 220.5
Pace: PHI (30th), BKN (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge have cleared the health and safety protocols and will play Thursday.
- Andre Drummond and Shake Milton are both questionable for the 76ers.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards
WAS -3, total: 210
Pace: CLE (22nd), WAS (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Darius Garland has entered the health and safety protocols, while Ricky Rubio suffered a torn ACL Tuesday, ending his season. Jarrett Allen remains doubtful for Cleveland.
- Bradley Beal is questionable for the Wizards, while Montrezl Harrell and Aaron Holiday are in the health and safety protocols.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic
MIL -14, total: 218
Pace: MIL (15th), ORL (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cole Anthony continues to deal with an ankle injury, while Mo Bamba and Chuma Okeke remain in the health and safety protocols.
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets
GSW -4.5, total: 213
Pace: GSW (18th), DEN (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Draymond Green, James Wiseman and Damion Lee are in the health and safety protocols, while Jordan Poole has been cleared to return.
- Aaron Gordon (hamstring) has missed the last three games and is listed as questionable once again for Thursday.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Daniel Gafford is averaging 1.03 fantasy points per minute with Montrezl Harrell off the floor
Gafford is coming off a very good game, scoring 16 points to go along with 11 rebounds, three assists and a steal. Sure, he didn’t miss a single shot which isn’t likely to be repeated, however, Gafford did play 36 minutes with Harrell in the health and safety protocols. With Harrell active, Gafford is normally hovering around the 26- to 28-minute mark but now that his minutes are up and he’s been productive, his $5,000 price tag on DraftKings is way too cheap. Gafford is averaging over a fantasy point per minute with Harrell off the court this season, while also sporting a healthy 29% rebounding rate.
The Nets are allowing the eighth-most post-up points per game this season (4.9)
Brooklyn is finally getting healthy, as Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge have cleared the health and safety protocols. However, this is still a frontcourt that you can exploit with opposing centers and Embiid remains one of the best in all of basketball. The Nets are coughing up 4.9 points per game to the post (4.9), which bodes well for Embiid, who continues to lead the NBA in post-up points per game (9.0), while his 35.1% frequency rate off the play type is the second-highest rate in the league.
Nikola Jokic is converting 67.1% of his rebounding chances over the last 10 games
Jokic is obviously the top player in fantasy and while he always posts huge stat lines, his rebounding has been absurd as of late. Over his last 10 games, Jokic is averaging a whopping 22.2 rebounding chances per game, the third-most in the league, while converting an impressive 67.1% of those opportunities into rebounds. And over his last three games, Jokic has collected 19, 22 and 21 rebounds, which is absolutely insane.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Daniel Gafford vs. CLE — You could make the argument Gafford is too cheap even if Washington was at full strength, but with Montrezl Harrell in the health and safety protocols, Gafford logged 36 minutes last game. He is way too cheap ahead of Thursday’s slate.
RJ Hampton vs. MIL — Hampton hadn’t been starting for the shorthanded Magic team, but now with Hassani Gravett out, I’d bet he enters the starting lineup. He doesn’t even have to, however, as he’ll still play 28-32 minutes and has been playing plenty of minutes in blowouts.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Coby White (42.25)
Ty Jerome (47.0)
Hamidou Diallo (61.25)
Larry Nance (45.25)
Jalen Smith (35.0)
Terry Rozier (58.75)
LeBron James (74.75)
Ja Morant (66.0)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Terry Rozier (59.9)
Ja Morant (62.0)
Ty Jerome (48.1)
Devin Booker (58.9)
Alec Burks (47.8)
Hamidou Diallo (60.6)
Larry Nance (47.3)
LeBron James (70.1)
Hassan Whiteside (35.7)
With the Thunder missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey Wednesday, Ty Jerome put together a huge game, scoring 24 points to go along with eight rebounds and five assists in 35 minutes. He attempted 22 shots in the game and with both Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey off the floor this season, Jerome is sporting a 25% usage rate, while averaging a healthy 0.97 fantasy points per minute in the split.
