Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 10/3)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays 

AL Wild Card Series: Rangers + 135 @ Rays -160 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The MLB postseason kicks off Tuesday afternoon with a four-game Wild Card slate. Many assumed the Rays were a lock to win the AL East after winning their first 13 games of the season and jumping out to a 50-22 record. But that’s why they play 162 games, as Tampa lost the division to the Baltimore Baby Birds and are hosting the Rangers in a three-game series with no days off. 

The Rays have a massive advantage on the bump, both in the rotation and the bullpen. Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin are the first two starters for the Rays, and they’ll be decent favorites against Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi. If necessary, depending on bullpen usage in the first two games, I could see Texas rolling with Dane Dunning, Martín Pérez or Andrew Heaney in the elimination game, while the Rays will likely turn to trade deadline acquisition Aaron Civale. Eovaldi has been dreadful since being activated from the IL in early September. In six starts since Sept. 5, the right-hander has surrendered 21 runs in 20.1 innings. That works out to a 9.30 ERA, 7.88 FIP, 5.10 SIERA and 12.9% barrel percentage. After a dominant start to the season, Eovaldi is having a tough time getting batters to chase and miss on his offerings and it makes you wonder if he’s still less than 100%. Overall, Tampa’s starting pitching has posted the best FIP, and strikeouts-minus-walks in MLB since the All-Star break at 3.60 and 20.6% respectively. While the Rangers rotation 4.30 ERA sits at 12 and their 14.1% K-BB ranks 19th. 

It’s clear Tampa has the SP edge, but the bullpen gap is even more significant, especially without scheduled off-days in this best-of-three. We’ve seen a massive contrast in these two bullpens since the All-Star break. Tampa has posted the second-best FIP in the Show at 3.56, with the 11th best ERA at 3.88, and the best strikeouts-minus-walks at 20.9%. The Rangers’ K-BB% sits in the middle of the pack at 14.8%, while their 4.94 FIP is the fourth-worst in MLB, and their 5.01 ERA is tied with the Nats for fifth-worst. 

These two offenses match up fairly well, and it’s close to a toss-up at the dish. In the second half, Tampa has posted the sixth-best wRC+ at 116, while Texas doesn’t sit too far behind at 10th with a 110 wRC+. The Rangers have posted a better wOBA at .334, with Tampa at .332. The Rangers outhomered Tampa in that period, but the Rays managed a few more runs. 

With the Rays having a significant advantage in two of the three phases in this series, I’m betting on them to take two of three from the Rangers and advance to the ALDS. 

Bet

Rays Series (-160, DraftKings Sportsbook)