Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals – Game 1
Pirates -142 @ Nats +120 Total 9 (Game 1)
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We’re looking to bounce back this Saturday afternoon after Kyle Gibson fell a strikeout short of cashing for us Thursday evening. We’re headed to the nation’s capital as the Nationals host the Pirates at Nats Park. The first pitch is in an hour so I’ll keep this brief.
Everyone’s favorite fade toes the rubber for the home team today, as Patrick Corbin and his 5.88 ERA, 6.66 expected ERA, and 5.31 FIP take on the smoking-hot Pirates. The southpaws’ ERA ranks sixth worst in all of baseball, while his expected ERA is the fourth worst in the game. I don’t need to continue to tell you how bad Patrick Corbin is but I’ll just post his blue-covered Savant percentile rankings.
Nobody expected the Pirates to have the 2nd best record in the show 26 games in and they’ve done it by torching left-handed pitching. The Pirates’ 125 wRC+ against left-handed pitching ranks fourth best in baseball as does their .358 wOBA. Overall the Buccos average 5.08 runs a game, which is good enough for ninth most in MLB.
Corbin should go about five innings Saturday afternoon while allowing around four runs before giving way to the Nats bullpen that ranks middle of the pack in terms of ERA and FIP but carries the third-highest SIERA. I’m projecting the Pirates for over five runs in game 1 of the doubleheader which will get us to the window. Be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.
Bets: Pirates TT Over 4.5 -122
