Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The matchups for the second round of the NBA Playoffs are almost set, with just one Western Conference battle to finalize. Friday brings us two closeout opportunities, with both home teams leading their respective series 3-2. Both games feature point spreads between five and eight points. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season and is scalding hot in the playoffs. Please make sure you check back throughout the day for potential injury updates.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Jaren Jackson Over 17.5 Points
(-130, PointsBet)
Jaren Jackson is critical to the Grizzlies success, using his versatility to score inside or space the floor. He averaged 18.6 PPG this season, and has posted 18.8 PPG in this series. Jackson has averaged just 13.5 PPG in the two games in Los Angeles, but he is still playing huge minutes (37.8 MPG) over the five games. Our model projects Jackson at 23.6 points, projecting to an 18.8% edge and 75.3% probability of winning. He has shot 37.7% from 3P range throughout the season, but is only shooting 31.6% from deep in this series. Let’s bank on some positive regression, and a big night for Jackson in desperation Game 6 for Memphis.
Kevon Looney Over 12.5 Rebounds
(-115, DraftKings)
I am always a fan of fading excessive production, but Kevon Looney’s rebounding efficiency is at a different level. Over the past three games, Looney has averaged an insane 18.7 RPG, including eclipsing 20 rebounds twice. Sacramento needs to focus so much attention on guarding Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on the perimeter, that they have allowed 4.2 offensive rebounds per game to Looney. The only way we lose this bet is foul trouble, but Looney has only averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game at home. The books have raised this number a full rebound to 12.5, but our model still projects Looney at 13.9 boards, providing a 14.5% betting edge.
De’Aaron Fox Under 6.5 Assists
(+100, PointsBet)
I also like finding unders, and this one at +100 is worth a sprinkle. De’Aaron Fox averaged just 6.1 assists this year during the regular season, and has posted five assists in two of the five games during this series. Fox has seen a huge increase in his 3P attempts, jumping his per-game average from 5.0 3PA to 9.6 3PA in this series. We project Fox for exactly 6.0 assists, which equates to a sneaky 7.3% betting edge. Our model also loves Fox’s over for points, making this a high scoring game, with fewer assists. At +100, I’m taking a shot here.
