Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have 14 games on the MLB slate for Monday, so there’s plenty of acting to be had around the diamond. Below you’ll see a list of my favorite MLB picks and MLB props.
The odds change pretty quickly in the MLB, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for all of my picks and FTN’s picks.
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Monday’s Best MLB Props and Picks
Boston Red Sox Moneyline
(-139, BetRivers)
We’re starting to see this number move from when it was placed in our FTN Discord Sunday night at -135, so it could continue to rise as we get closer to first pitch. However, I still like the Red Sox to win on the moneyline up to -145.
Tanner Houck takes the ball for the Red Sox in their fifth game of the season after splitting a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners. Houck had a 5.01 ERA over 106 innings last season, but his xFIP was 4.07. He had a 5.80 ERA through 54.1 innings at Fenway Park where opponents slashed .281/.347/.466 with a .350 wOBA. Houck was much better on the road as he rocked a 4.18 ERA over 51.2 innings, and opponents slashed .222/.306/.354 with a .292 wOBA.
One thing I like about Houck’s game aside from his career 12.9 SwStr%, is his 51% ground ball rate for his career. His walk rate is concerning, but he shouldn’t have to worry about issuing free passes or extra base hits with a matchup in Oakland against the Athletics. Through four games, Oaklan has only mustered two home runs and 11 runs. Their 26.6% K rate is the sixth highest and they have a bottom 10 AVG (.216), OBP (.301) and wOBA (.289). In 2023, Oakland ranked 29th in wOBA, 30th in runs, 30th in average and 21st in home runs.
On top of that, Boston can score, and they’ll see pitches from Joe Boyle who enters with an 81.1% contact rate. He only has 16 innings on the MLB resume, but he had a 55% fly ball rate and he struggled with command in the minors. In 16 AAA innings last season, Boyle walked 11 batters and in 82 AA innings in 2023 he walked 75 batters. Boston scored 10 runs in their two games with Rafael Devers in the lineup, and the superstar third baseman should be good to go after missing two games with a shoulder injury.
Bonus
- Boston Over O 4.5 Runs (-105, DraftKings)
- Rafael Devers O 1.5 Total Bases (+105, BetMGM)
- Tyler O’Neill O 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-105, DraftKings)
Texas Rangers Over 3.5 Runs Scored
(-130, Bet365)
Ryan Pepiot is an intriguing young arm with a high strikeout ceiling who will make his Tampa Bay debut Monday. I’m just as excited as everyone else seems to be about Pepiot, but he’s in a tough spot against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers.
You don’t need me to tell you that the Rangers are loaded on offense, but here’s a friendly reminder of what they did last season en route to their first ever title. Texas led the American League in wOBA (.340), runs (881), ISO (.190), OBP (.337), SLG (.452) and home runs (233). All signs point to their offense being just as good if not better in 2024 with rookies Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter with the team to start the season.
Pepiot had a solid 2.14 ERA in 42 innings with the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, but there were a few red flags in his numbers. The right-hander had an unsustainable 99.2% strand rate, which resulted in a 3.99 xFIP. His 51% flyball rate has led to 13 home runs in 81.1 career innings, and he served up seven bombs in his eight appearances last season, including at least one in four straight outings to wrap up 2023 (six total). Walks weren’t an issue for Pepiot last season, but he issued 27 free passes over 36.1 innings in 2022. If you walk a couple batters in this Texas lineup, it could lead to a crooked number pretty quickly.
The Rangers have already racked up 20 runs in their first three games. They’ve hit five total home runs, including two from Adolis García and one from Jared Walsh. Former Angel Walsh is off to a hot start (4-for-9) with eight total bases. He should play against most right-handed pitchers this season. Both left-handed batters and right-handed batters have a 50% fly ball rate against Pepiot in his career.
Bonus
- Corey Seager O 1.5 Total Bases (-110, BetMGM)
- Wyatt Langford HR (+575, BetMGM)
- Jared Walsh HR (+680, FanDuel)
