Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 10/28)

The Dodgers lead the Yankees 2-0 as we head to the Bronx for Game 3, with the first two games both coming down to the ninth inning. It seems like the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani narrowly escaped a shoulder injury, and Ohtani is expected to be in the lineup Monday night. The Yankees, meanwhile, will hope to find some holes in the Dodgers defense with runners in scoring position. New York is a combined 2-for-14 with RISP in the first two contests.

The Dodgers haven’t been much better with runners on second and third either, going 1-for-11 with RISP, but they’ve outhomered the Yankees 4-2 so far. The last two postseasons, teams that out-homer opponents are 47-11. Even with the series shifting from the perfect LA weather to New York, where it’s about 20 degrees cooler, we’re still seeing a similar full game total of 8.5 with movement toward the over.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched deeper into Game 2 than I expected, but we still cashed, as he stayed under his 5.5 strikeout prop. That win moved us to 15-4 on writeups this season and 9-0 on postseason best bets.

You can check out our FTN MLB Model World Series projections for a series outlook, but for now, let’s get into Game 3.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+124) @ New York Yankees (-148)

Total 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Clarke Schmidt is tasked with getting the Yankees back into the series and avoiding a 3-0 deficit, as he makes his third career postseason start. The 28-year-old has a 5.40 ERA, 6.84 FIP and 4.52 SIERA through 11.2 postseason innings (five games). The righty has a 10.1% swinging-strike percentage in the 2024 postseason, down from 12.2% in the regular season. His 88.9% postseason zone-contact percentage is up from his regular-season mark of 80.7%, as is his barrel percentage at 10%. It certainly isn’t a big sample, but the Dodgers are clearly a step up in competition compared to the AL Central Guardians and Royals that Schmidt has faced.

At the dish, the Dodgers offense hasn’t slowed down this postseason. They lead all playoff teams in home runs with 24 (Yankees are second with 15), 80 runs, 58 walks and a 121 wRC+. They’re slashing .248/.340/.451 as a team with an 11% barrel rate. That’s good enough for 6.15 runs a game through 13 games and 500+ plate appearances. This Dodgers lineup not only features three of the biggest stars in the sport but has shown great depth with Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández, Kiké Hernández and Max Muncy combining for 10 long balls this postseason.

The FTN MLB Model has the Yankees taking Game 3, but the Dodgers are projected for 3.9 runs.