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Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 10/26)

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Talk about an instant classic! Game 1 of the World Series couldn’t have been any more thrilling, unless of course you were rooting for the guys in pinstripes. Freddie Freeman became the second player to hit a walk-off postseason home run with his team down to its final out. The only other person to do so? Kirk Gibson in Game 1 of the World Series for the Dodgers in 1988.

If you’re a Yankee fan, it’s tough to blame anyone other than Aaron Boone for putting Nestor Cortes in the highest leverage spot of Game 1 after he had missed five weeks with an elbow strain.

As someone who loves the game, we can only hope we’re treated to a six- or seven-game series between these two powerhouses. We’re 14-4 on official writeups this season after the Dodgers team total cashed for us in the NLCS. We’ve been even better this postseason, as we put our postseason 8-0 best best streak on the line Saturday in Los Angeles.  

You can check out our FTN MLB Model World Series projections for a series outlook, but for now let’s get into Game 2. 

New York Yankees (+120) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-142)

(Total 9, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes his fourth start of the postseason for LA and his second career start against the New York Yankees. Yamamoto went seven innings and struck out seven back in June at Yankee Stadium, but that was before the righty’s trip to the IL. Yoshi has made seven starts since returning from a shoulder injury, completing five innings in only two of those outings. Yamamoto has posted a 5.11 ERA, 4.76 FIP and a 3.61 SIERA in 12.1 postseason innings (three starts). The 26-year-old had a 28.5% K% in the regular season, but that has dipped down to 21.2% in the playoffs. I mentioned how Yamamoto isn’t pitching deep into games, and I don’t expect him to face more than 19 batters in Game 2, especially given the off day Sunday. 

At the dish, the Bronx Bombers have posted a 21.9% K% in the postseason, which isn’t far off from their regular season mark that ranked ninth lowest in baseball. New York’s 10.1% swinging-strike percentage sits third lowest in the postseason. While the Yankees 26.2% outside-the-zone swing percentage is the lowest. The Yankees have done damage when they do swing, with the highest hard hit percentage in the postseason at 48.7%. Yamamoto’s going to need to be his sharpest to get through this Yankee order two-plus times. 

The FTN MLB Model agrees with our bet, as it has Yoshinobu Yamamoto projected to punch out 4.71 Yankee batters. 

Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best number available. 

Best Bet

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 K’s (-155, DraftKings Sportsbook

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