NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
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Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds ML +130 (Caesars Sportsbook)
It’s no secret the Reds and Nationals are two of the worst teams in all of baseball, but Friday’s matchup should still be entertaining. The Reds are on a four-game losing streak and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, but Washington is not much better. The Nationals are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a measly .229 team batting average over this stretch.
Lefty Mike Minor will make the start for the Reds on the road. In 14 starts this season, Minor is 2-10 with a 6.44 ERA, a 6.17 FIP and a 1.61 WHIP. Minor’s first start of the season was against the Nationals at home, and he allowed five runs on six hits in four innings of work in a Reds loss.
Minor has been bad this season, but he has been slightly better on the road. In 31.2 innings of work on the road, Minor has a 6.54 ERA, but his FIP drops to 5.75. The Reds are 2-4 in Minor’s road starts this season, and two of the teams he beat are two of the weaker teams in the MLB, the Diamondbacks and the Pirates. The last time Minor faced the Nationals, they had Juan Soto and Josh Bell, so he is facing an inferior lineup.
The Reds’ offense has been bad this year, but they have actually improved their team OPS in the month of August. Despite the Reds’ struggles this season, they are going against a rookie pitcher making his first MLB start.
Rookie righty Cade Cavalli, the Nationals’ No. 2 prospect, will make his first career MLB start for the Nationals at home. Cavalli was the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft, and he is touted for his big arm and his changeup. In two Triple-A seasons, Cavalli has a 7-9 record with a 4.44 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and 4.73 runs allowed per nine innings.
The Nationals have a team OPS of .679 in August, but they are still struggling to win games. At home, the Nationals have a .680 OPS, but they are 19-44 at Nationals Park. Without Soto and Josh Bell, this offense has become anemic, and they have scored just seven runs in their last four games.
Even though the Reds lineup is nothing to write home about, they still have some pop, 20th in runs scored this season—not great, but closer to average than bottom of the barrel. After putting up a goose egg Thursday against the Phillies, I expect the Reds to come out swinging against the rookie. I have no doubt Cavalli will be a good MLB pitcher, but I think he is in for a rude awaking in his MLB debut, even against the lowly Reds.
I have this game priced at CIN +117, so at CIN +130, I believe there is value.
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML +130 (Caesars Sportsbook)
