Ahead of the Count: MLB DFS plays for Monday (5/17)

What’s up, everyone! Welcome, or welcome back to, Ahead of the Count. This article is going to cover my thoughts on the slate, top to bottom. My goal is going to provide you with as much analysis, strategy, and advice as possible on a daily basis to help you guys not only make winning lineups, but learn, develop, and dial in on a process of your own.

As far as content coming from me, I will have my main slate preview article Monday-Friday, as well as my projections. My projections are currently loaded into our brand new FTN optimizer on the site, but make sure you’re checking back and not setting lineups too early as my projections will often change once starting lineups are confirmed. My player-rater system and ownership projections will also be integrated into the optimizer as well as available here.

Be sure to check out the rest of our FTN MLB DFS content as we have you covered with anything you could look for. Also, please be sure to check for spotty weather and to confirm the starting lineups for each person I write up to ensure they made the starting lineup that day.

Pitchers

Expensive tier

Gerrit Cole – Cole has been fantastic this year, a 40% K%, 1.96 xFIP and a 1.77 SIERA. This has been one of the more dominant starts to a season of Cole’s career, and this matchup against the Rangers is one with plenty of upside. So far this season, the Rangers projected lineup has just two hitters with a K% of under 22% against RHPs. The biggest flaw for Cole is the hard contact from lefties that he doesn't tend to keep on the ground, but overall it is not a concern for me as he misses so many bats in general.
Yu Darvish – Like Cole, Darvish has also gotten off to a great start this year, but Darvish isn’t quite in the insane K-upside stratosphere like someone like Gerrit Cole is. Darvish has a solid 31% K% this year to go along with a 3.74 xFIp and 3.23 SIERA. With Darvish not quite being on the same level as guys like Gerrit Cole and deGrom, the advantage to rostering him over those guys is typically ownership, matchup or price. In this case, Cole has the much higher upside matchup, as the current Rockies projected lineup has just three hitters (not including the pitchers spot) with a 21% K% or higher. However, there shouldn't be much of an issue here for Darvish either, as the lineup is pretty terrible all around and I am sure Darvish will still work up a solid amount of Ks. Next is ownership, on DraftKings, you are not likely to get a massive edge in terms of popularity, so that leaves us with price. On DK, Cole is $700 more, while on FD Cole is $1200 more. The verdict for me is that the price difference is a fine reason to use Darvish over Cole tonight, but on DK I would much rather get to Cole where I think the ceiling is much higher. However, using both could be viable as well.
Walker Buehler – I don’t think you get enough of a discount on Buhler to get to him over Darvish or Cole on DK, but on FD, Buehler is $2,400 cheaper than Cole and $1,200 cheaper than Darvish. After a slow start, the velocity worked its way up back to normal levels and now Buehler has produced 8+ Ks in each of his last four starts. I like the matchup for Buehler more than Darvish’s, as this DBacks lineup is also pretty terrible but has more K upside. Five of the eight projected hitters strike out 22% of the time or more against RHPs this season.

Mid-tier

Value tier

Casey Mize

My Pitcher Rankings

Stacks

New York Yankees
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox

Quick hits

Favorite value hitter – Taylor Ward
Favorite value pitcher – Casey Mize (Only pitcher under $7k I would use, but prefer to not go this far)
Favorite one-off hitter – Nelson Cruz
Favorite contrarian pitcher – Casey Mize
Favorite contrarian stack – Atlanta Braves
Favorite value stack – Cleveland Indians
The Bleacher Report (HR calls) – Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Franmil Reyes, Tim Anderson