NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
It’s hard to believe the 2024 MLB season is already at the All-Star break, but here we are. We have a few more hours until the second half of the season officially kicks off, so we will be taking a look at the MLB awards outright markets, including MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to provide an update on the preseason articles at these very same markets. Today, we will take a look at the Most Valuable Player Award.
2024 MLB Most Valuable Player Awards
Current MVP Favorites
American League: Aaron Judge
(-370, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It is no surprise to see Aaron Judge as the heavy American League MVP favorite at the midsummer break, as Judge leads baseball with 34 home runs and 85 RBIs while slashing .306/.433/.679. With the Yankees one game out of the AL East lead, Judge certainly carries even more ammunition towards collecting his second MVP hardware. That said, the Orioles do lead the division and Gunnar Henderson (+310) appears to have the best chance at chasing down Judge. With Judge on a pace of 56 home runs, and 139 RBIs while slugging .679, the Yankee captain is currently on track to match most of his 2022 production, when he was a unanimous winner.
National League: Shohei Ohtani
(-380, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Like Aaron Judge, the National League MVP race has a clear cut frontrunner in Shohei Ohtani, who currently has 29 home runs, 69 RBIs and 23 stolen bases, while slashing .316/.400/.635. Interestingly, Ohtani was not the favorite to win this award at the time of Mookie Betts’ injury. It was Betts who maintained a strong hold as the MVP favorite, but following his placement on the IL due to a broken wrist, Ohtani took over as the favorite to win the award and has since shortened his odds considerably.
Preseason Picks
AL MVP Preseason Pick: Yordan Álvarez
(+1100)
After expecting quite a strong season from Yordan Álvarez, it has been a disappointing year for the Astros as a whole, who currently sit second in the AL West. The Astros however have turned things around after beginning the season 12-24. While Álvarez is in the midst of a strong season with 19 home runs, and 52 RBIs and slashing .296/.382/.531, it isn’t in the same stratosphere as Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson, so Álvarez’ odds currently sit at +16000 over on FanDuel. This wager is looking as dead as one can be.
NL MVP Preseason Pick: Bryce Harper
(+1200)
If there is anyone in the National League who appears capable of tracking down Shohei Ohtani, it is Bryce Harper. At the break, Harper has 21 home runs and 61 RBIs and is slashing .301/.403/.579 for the NL East- (and MLB-) leading Philadelphia Phillies. The biggest thing Harper has going for him is the Phillies being the best team in baseball, and should that continue, Harper’s production figures to be a big reason why. With Ohtani not throwing a single pitch in 2024, perhaps voters feel less inclined to give their vote to the two-time MVP winner, especially if Harper’s current production maintains its pace at the end of the season. Currently, Ohtani maintains a 5.2 to 4.2 edge in fWAR and 5.4 to 3.8 edge in bWAR. Harper will need to close the gap considerably to have any chance, but it’s not impossible. The Phillies first baseman is currently +410 to collect his third MVP award and for those holding +1200 tickets from March, this is certainly looking very much in play.
