MLB Best Bets – Free (Friday 7/19)

Welcome back, baseball family. The Midsummer Classic has been completed and we’ve made it through our MLB hiatus. Baseball has blessed us with an action-packed 14-game slate fresh off of the All-Star break, and I have an angle locked and loaded for us already.

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

While bettors everywhere will be attacking National Patrick Corbin Day, I’ve found a spot to fade his counterpart for this afternoon, Frankie Montas. The veteran right-hander enters Friday with a 4.38 ERA through the first half of the season. Montas struggled to start July, posting a 5.25 ERA across two starts with seven earned runs and 4 home runs allowed. Montas has had difficulties against left-handed hitters — this season, lefties are averaging .270 against him compared to only.203 for righties. Friday, I’ll look to target Montas with the National’s left-handed leadoff man and first-time All-Star, CJ Abrams.

Though Abrams made his first All-Star appearance this season, he struggled mightily in July leading into the break. I look at this as a perfect bounceback spot for the young star after getting a week to reset from his struggles. Abrams has performed well at home this season, posting a .270 average and has flashed power against right-handed pitching all season.

CJ Abrams vs. RHP 2024

.258 AVG
.831 OPS
12 HR
15 Doubles

Abrams has also performed especially well against Montas’ top four pitches to left-handed hitters.

CJ Abrams vs. Frankie Montas’ T4 Pitches to LHB

4SFB — .347 AVG, 26 Hits, 7 HR, .707 SLG
CUT — .462 AVG, 6 Hits, 2 HR, 1.000 SLG
SPL — .190 AVG, (.370 xBA), 4 Hits
SNK — .429 AVG, 9 Hits, .571 SLG

Montas has struggled against opposing leadoff hitters this season, allowing them a .310 average with 3 homers and 7 RBIs. This is simply an amazing spot for Abrams, being a lefty hitting leadoff with his great averages and 9 HR in total against Montas’ top four pitches. I’m expecting Abrams to set the tone early and begin the second half of the season the right way.

Our MLB model pictured below loves Abrams as well, projecting him for 1.80 total bases and 2.14 Hits+Runs+RBIs.