Alex Blickle's Articles

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Another week around the PGA Tour slumming it without the CF Model. Oh well, we power through. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint […]

Another week without the Course Fit Model. Boo! Due to our lack of ability to project this course, let’s once again take a look at who’s mispriced based on their current and long-term forms. Xander Schauffele Schauffele is the best player in the field. His 2.0 strokes gained per round is the best long-term average […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace = more possessions = more opportunity for fantasy production Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS – contrarian options […]

Each week, I’ll review my single-entry NFL DFS lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes: Single-entry lineup Thursday-Monday lineup The goal here […]

First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections: The goal of this article is to use ownership to find paths to GPP success through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage. I will be heavily referencing Derek Brown’s article, as well – the man is sharp! Offensive Efficiency Report Using the new offensive efficiency […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

NFL DFS ownership projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: […]

It’s never fun to be without a CF Model, but no one in the industry knows what to expect at this new course for this week’s CJ Cup. Consequently, there are sure to be ownership inefficiencies we can take advantage of. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward […]

Unfortunately, the Course Fit Model is a no-go this week, as we have another new course. In lieu of course fit analysis, I’ll highlight the guys in best form for their price. Dustin Johnson DJ is sixth in the field in strokes gained over his last 20 events, but that doesn’t include his dominant Ryder […]

Each week throughout the NFL season, I’ll review my single-entry DFS lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes: Single-entry lineup The goal […]

First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections: The goal of this article is to use ownership to find paths to GPP success through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage. I will be heavily referencing Derek Brown’s article, as well – the man is sharp! Game Script Builds Baltimore onslaught We always associate […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack — by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

Ownership Projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: Take a […]

It’s a bit underwhelming to go from the thrill of a big DFS Ryder Cup week to a KFT-like event that is the Shriners Hospital for Children Open, but the money to be made is just as real. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in […]

Golf is the only sport where the “arena” in which it is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics, if you haven’t already. […]

First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections: The goal of this article is to use ownership to find paths to GPP success through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage. I will be heavily referencing Derek Brown’s article, as well – the man is sharp! Game Script Builds 1. Heavy on Las Vegas […]

Each week, I’ll review my single entry lineup, as well as a couple of others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes: Single-entry lineup The goal here is to […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Sunday Funday! Welcome to Game 162. One thing to keep in mind – some […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. We have two Saturday MLB slates followed by NFL Football Sunday — let’s make some […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

Ownership Projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: Take a […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Only a GPP takedown can fill the hole the Phillies have left in my heart, […]

It’s a bit underwhelming to go from the thrill of a big DFS Ryder Cup week to a KFT-like event in this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship, but the money to be made is just as real. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in relation to […]

Golf is the only sport where the “arena” in which it is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics, if you haven’t already. […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. I have yet to recover from the terrible Eagles showing Monday, but a full slate […]

First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections: The goal of this article is to use ownership to find paths to GPP success through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage. I will be heavily referencing Derek Brown’s article, as well – the man is sharp! Game Script Builds Jalen Hurts is leading in […]

Each week through the NFL season, I’ll review my single entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes: Single-entry lineup The goal […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. You didn’t forget about baseball today? Awesome, me neither. Pitchers to play Freddy Peralta […]

In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position. Another day with two slates ahead. Pitchers to play – Early slate Shane McClanahan, Tampa […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

Congratulations to DraftKings for doing the right thing and giving us captain mode for the Ryder Cup! Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint […]