Alex Blickle's Articles

Another week without the Course Fit Model. Though they’ve been playing at the Albany Golf Club for years, the model is entirely non-predictive, likely because only twenty golfers play per year. In lieu of course fit specialists, let’s take a look at who is outperforming their price-tag for the week. Sam Burns Burns is a […]

Each week, I’ll review my single-entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. We’ll just be looking at my single-entry lineup this week. The goal here […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

NFL Showdowns have swings like no other, where you can go from outside the cash line to within takedown territory (or vice versa) in a single play. A key to ensuring you’re on the right side of those swings more often than the wrong side is having a real sense of where ownership will be, […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons:  Faster pace = more possessions = more opportunity for fantasy production Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS – contrarian options […]

I’m filling in for Kyle Murray today, but this article will look a little different than usual. I’ll be searching for players for whom my pace/game environment heavy approach overlaps with Kyle’s projection-driven approach.  Today’s game environments The first column to look at is “Pace Dif.” This compares the projected pace of the game, “Game […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack — by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think of […]

NFL DFS roster projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Each week, I’ll review my single-entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. We’ll just be looking at my single-entry lineup this week. The goal here […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

NFL showdowns have swings like no other, where you can go from outside the money to within takedown territory (or vice versa) on a single play. A key to ensuring you’re on the right side of those swings more often than the wrong side is having a real sense of where ownership will be, and […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

NFL DFS roster projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Fresh off a big Jason Kokrak win, we’re headed to Sea Island, a players’ favorite year in and year out. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes […]

Golf is the only sport where the “arena” in which it is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. You’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics, if you haven’t already. These stats isolate […]

Each week, I’ll review my single entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. We’ll just be looking at my single-entry lineup this week. The goal […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections: The goal of this article is to use ownership to find paths to GPP success through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage.  Offensive Efficiency Report Given home-field advantage, no more Robert Woods, and very similar projected passing efficiency, I’m surprised by the four-point spread (down […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace = more possessions = more opportunity for fantasy production Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS – contrarian options […]

GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time. A great analogy is to think […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]

Ownership Projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.  The goal of this Thursday article is to: Take a […]

Pace is everything in NBA DFS. In my opinion, this is true for three reasons: Faster pace means more possessions, which mean more opportunity for fantasy production. Pace is more predictable than offensive efficiency, which is dependent on shooting variance. Certain players thrive in faster environments, leading to the holy grail of DFS — contrarian […]