Alex Blickle's Articles

PGA DFS Hot Takes for The Masters     Welcome to Masters Week at Augusta National. A strong, unique course fit model only enhances my excitement for the event, as does the debut of our new birdie rate over expected metric. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players […]

A new way to look at PGA DFS is with a new metric: Birdie Rate Over Expected. Below, we will discuss how this new way of looking at players can help us build better DFS lineups.   What is it? Birdie rate over expected measures the amount of birdies a player makes above his expected […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics if you haven’t […]

Baseball DFS lineups are my favorite to build, because there are so many different paths you can take, all connected, and the ideal build strategy changes drastically night to night.    For now, let’s focus on maybe the most important part of MLB GPP — stacking.  Stacking To stack is to use multiple hitters from […]

PGA DFS Hot Takes for the Valero Texas Open   It’s hard to get too excited for the Valero Texas Open, considering the Masters is immediately after. However, we have a strong course fit model and one that gives us a fairly large edge in DFS this week. Plus, regardless of the event, PGA DFS […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament, like this week’s Valero Texas Open, provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with […]

The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play is one of my favorite events year in and year out, as it requires more creative thought and DFS strategy than any other PGA Tour stop. Consequently, this week I’m going to focus on the strategy and roster construction side of things more than specific plays. Regardless of the event, […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics if you haven’t […]

Round 2 in PGA DFS showdown is all about letting everyone else over-react to Round 1. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take anything from the Thursday action in this week’s Valspar Championship, but we want to be disciplined about how we adjust our priors. The easiest way to do this is through projections or, my […]

Fresh off the Cam Smith outright, let’s see if we can turn the betting success into DFS glory at The Valspar Championship. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament, like this week’s Valspar Championship, provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes […]

A week after distance proved to be the most predictive thanks to our new strokes gained: driving accuracy metric, TPC Sawgrass will reward accuracy off the tee above all else. In fact, The Players Championship sports the most predictive CF Model of all, giving us a tremendous edge this week. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics if you haven’t […]

PGA DFS Hot Takes for the Arnold Palmer Invitational   The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a perfect place to debut our strokes gained: driving accuracy metric, as Bay Hill rewards both distance and accuracy off the tee at a high clip. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of […]

The benefits of evaluating driving in golf with strokes gained: off the tee are obvious — it’s the most stable metric in all of golf, making it one of the most predictive, as well. However, it’s intuitive that some courses benefit bombers while others benefit precision and accuracy. The problem is, until now, we haven’t […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament, like this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with […]

The Honda Classic is always one of my favorite events because of PGA National and the unique test it presents. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament, like this week’s Honda Classic, provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes […]

Throughout the NFL season, I did a number of mini deep dives (and one big deep dive) into how we can build smarter lineups from a construction standpoint. This article will cover the key concepts I want to have fresh in my mind to begin the 2023 NFL season with a large edge.   How […]

This week’s action takes place at historic Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of a play […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament, like this week’s Genesis Invitational, provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes […]

Eliot Crist qualifies his staple article as a pursuit to find “players in the best position to succeed… based on an individual matchup, how teams perform, pace of play, injury-related boost, or a game environment that’s juicy.” Interestingly, there aren’t many mismatches for either team’s offense in this game. By and large, where the offenses […]

This week’s action takes place at TPC Scottsdale for the ever-exciting, rowdy Waste Management Phoenix Open! Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics if you haven’t […]

We’re fully in the swing of things with PGA! Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of a play in order to be in […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics if you haven’t […]

GPP’s are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack – by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time.   A great analogy is to […]

Finding ways to diversify without sacrificing expectation or ceiling is a key to GPP success. We can do this through the use of roster construction, but most of the time, we do it by finding diamonds in the rough. For these playoff slates, it becomes even more difficult to do because fewer games means inflated […]

Eliot Crist qualifies his staple article as a pursuit to find “players in the best position to succeed… based on an individual matchup, how teams perform, pace of play, injury-related boost, or a game environment that’s juicy.” The playoffs present a unique challenge for this piece — any mismatch we are able to identify is […]

NFL DFS rostership projections evolve throughout the week in a specific way. They begin as a reflection of how people view plays in a vacuum, slowly but surely progressing into a combination of how people view players and how certain player combinations fit into various lineup constructions.    The goal of this article is to: […]

Welcome back, PGA fans! It’s the first real event of the year! Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you’re on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of a play in order to […]

Golf is the only sport in which the “arena” in which the game is played changes dramatically from one event to another. Consequently, each tournament provides its own unique challenge, which emphasizes certain areas of the game more than others. At this point, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the strokes gained statistics, if you haven’t […]