MLB GPP Stacks: The Ultimate DFS Puzzle

Baseball DFS lineups are my favorite to build, because there are so many different paths you can take, all connected, and the ideal build strategy changes drastically night to night. 

For now, let’s focus on maybe the most important part of MLB GPP — stacking. 

Stacking

To stack is to use multiple hitters from the same lineup, preferably close together in the order. Why do we do this? Correlation. The probability of your DFS lineup as a whole hitting a ceiling outcome increases dramatically if the players’ ceilings within your lineup are positively correlated. Correlation is especially powerful in MLB because of the variety of ways it manifests itself. 

First, a base hit from one player means the next guy has someone to drive in. Then, a base hit from that guy can allow your first player to score, and so on. But that’s not all — as your players accrue fantasy points by getting on base and being driven home by your other players, they are also increasing the total number of at bats your hitters will get in the game. This is a key point, often under-discussed — unlike NBA or NFL, there is no time constraint on the game, so any positive outcome for one player has no negative opportunity cost effect for another. Consider football. If you have a QB-WR1-WR2 stack, and your WR1 catches a long TD, that’s great for your QB and WR1, but it’s a possession lost for your WR2. There is no such constraint in baseball.

Additionally, hitter production is every bit as much about the pitcher’s performance as it is the hitters’. So, if a pitcher is just off, where his breaking stuff won’t break or he can’t command the fastball, every hitter in the lineup benefits. To compare this idea once again to NFL DFS, it’s akin to your game-stack becoming a shootout where everyone benefits.

Another way to think about correlation is to ask yourself, “what is the most likely way player X gets to 25 (or so) DK points”? Chances are, the answer involves numerous runs scored and RBIs, perhaps due to a poor outing from the opposing pitcher(s), all of which means his teammates are also producing. This is what it means to have positively correlated ceilings. 

When selecting stacks and specific hitters within the stacks, we want to consider all of the following:

• DFS salary
• Projected rostership
• Spot in the batting order 
• Opportunity cost at the position (more on opportunity cost in a bit)
• Individual baseline stats like wOBA, ISO, and wRC+
• Vegas Implied Run Total
• Park factors
• Weather
• Opposing starting pitcher
• Opposing bullpen
• Pitch mix matchup

Don’t worry — our team of analysts will help guide you through all of it for each individual slate. In time, you’ll become comfortable breaking down hitting matchups on your own.

The Components of a Lineup

Now that we’ve discussed stacking, we can break down an MLB GPP lineup into three categories:

1. Pitchers
2. Primary stack
3. Secondary stack (or one-offs)

The order in which you prioritize the three compartments has to change on a daily basis, as well as how you determine which team will be your primary stack.

The Interconnectedness of the Three Components

As mentioned, we typically see players priced up and priced down as a team. Consequently, the stack(s) you choose will narrow your options for the other compartments based on the salary cap. Similarly, targeting value pitchers will open all sorts of windows and doors for your stacks, while jamming in expensive pitchers will force you to find the rare cheap stacks that come with a real ceiling. 

The principle being discussed here is opportunity cost, which refers to the loss of potential gain from an alternative option when one option is chosen. For example, the opportunity cost of using Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole in the same lineup is the potential points that stacking an expensive Dodger lineup could give you. This is a key thing to understand when deciding how to start your builds.

Understanding the Various Paths to Lineup Construction

There are two things you should be considering when deciding on your starting point to a lineup — opportunity cost and ownership. You may love the expensive pitchers, but if you fade them, are there value pitchers you also feel confident about? Sure, the Dodgers are in a great spot, but is there an offense inexplicably priced down? 

To me, the building block of the lineup is the compartment where the biggest ownership and/or price inefficiency exists.

Let’s use some examples:

Example A:

• Three pitchers stand out on the slate. Two are expensive and chalky, one is cheap and under-rostered.
• Three offenses stand out. One is expensive and chalky, one is expensive and contrarian, and the last is cheap and contrarian.

Example B: 

• Those same pitchers and teams stand out, but this time both expensive pitchers are contrarian, and the cheap pitcher is chalky. 
• There may or may not be a fourth offense that is also viable and cheap.

Example C: 

• All three of the pitchers are chalky.

How would you build for each example? Seriously, come up with an answer before reading more…

Here’s how I would answer for each example:

Example A:

• Unlocking an expensive stack with a value pitcher who also gives me leverage is the building block. With that leverage I could choose between the two expensive stacks without factoring in ownership too much since I already have enough diversification.

Example B:

• This time, it would depend on that fourth offense. If the fourth offense exists, allowing me to fit the two expensive, low-rostered pitchers, I could go that route, pairing them with the other cheap stack. If there is no viable fourth offense, I would likely prioritize the expensive but contrarian offense, in order to diversify since I would have to eat the chalk with the value pitcher. 

Example C:

• No question, the building block would be the expensive, contrarian offense. Unlike example B, this would be my only route for contrarian upside, making it the top priority. 

The takeaway here is that you should be considering how any stack or pitcher affects your options and priorities (diversification) in the other compartments of your lineup.

Tying It All Together

In no other DFS sport can lineups be separated into such defined compartments, nor are the compartments so interconnected. The beauty is that lineup building is therefore easier for MLB than other sports because there are fewer decisions to be made, and some decisions are made for you by the decisions you prioritized beforehand.  

In my opinion, the biggest trap to avoid is chasing too much individual ceiling at the expense of correlation, often by relying too heavily on projections. Remember — baseball is an event-based sport with tons of variance in a single game. Hitters who project extremely well will go 0-4 while hitters who have a tough matchup will homer twice, it’s just how baseball is.