Bowl Slate Preview (Dec. 24)

Hawaii is the place to be this year, as there is a college football bowl game and a tournament for basketball. Tuesday, we will grind the Hawaii Bowl, and Wednesday, the final round of the Diamond Head Classic takes place. This means we have opportunities galore to replace the money we have all spent on the holidays.

Let’s take a look at the DFS and betting outlook for the Hawaii Bowl.

The Hawaii Bowl

San Jose State vs. South Florida

The Hawaii Bowl features the San Jose State Spartans and the South Florida Bulls. The Spartans will be without star WR Nick Nash, as he has decided to focus on draft prep. This is a big loss for the team, as he accounted for 35% of the target share this year. The Spartans made a switch at QB midseason from Emmett Brown to Walker Eget. Brown has decided to transfer while Eget is expected to play the entire game. Eget has completed roughly 58% of his passes for 2,224 yards and 11 TDs. His ceiling is massive which we saw against Stanford and Boise State in recent weeks, but it’ll take time for consistency as he really struggled against UNLV in a Week 13 loss.

The Spartan running game hasn’t been as good as years past, but it’s still capable with Floyd Chalk (661 yards) and Jabari Bates (249). Nick Nash had almost 1400 receiving yards, which obviously won’t be easy to replace for this game, but they do have plenty of talent remaining. Justin Lockhart (52-973-5) becomes the de facto alpha, while Treyshun Hurry (24-419-2), Matthew Coleman (22-282-1) and TE Jackson Canaan (23-288-1) will step into bigger roles.

If Byrum Brown returns it makes the Bulls offense much more dynamic, and I am all over them as slight underdogs due to the possibility. Brown hasn’t played since Week 5 due to a foot injury, but the dual-threat was on his way to a very productive season. He threw for 836 yards and 2 TDs while rushing for 269 yards/3 TDs in five games. San Jose State’s been beat up by opposing rushing attacks all season long so Brown could theoretically have a big game. However, the long layoff will obviously lead to a level of rust so we would have to temper expectations to a degree.

The Bulls have a rushing group that features several notable names in Nay’Quan Wright (494 yards), Kelley Joiner (766) and Taron Keith (414). For the showdown slate, I would highly recommend rolling out multiple RBs from this group. Sean Atkins (68-677-2) has thrived despite running most of the season with a backup quarterback and his viability would be further enhanced by a possible return of Byrum Brown.

Points should be flowing in this game even without Nash, as the Spartans throw the ball at one of the highest rates in the country. Their version of the run-and-shoot runs a pass play at a 64% clip. The Bulls will likely key in on Lockhart so look for tight ends Jacob Stewart and Jackson Canaan to see more work.

The Bulls’ reliance on the running game is their best path to winning and the Spartans defense was one of the worst units in the country when it comes to stuff rate as well as line yards. For DFS, we want to focus heavily on USF RBs and SJSU pass-catchers. Betting-wise, I’m taking South Florida outright and sprinkling the over.

DFS Targets

USF RBs (Kelley Joiner, Nay’Quan Wright, Taron Keith, in that order)
Walker Eget
Justin Lockhart
Jackson Canaan
Jacob Stewart
Byrum Brown (utility play if he starts)

Best Bets

South Florida +2.5 (-108, DraftKings)
South Florida ML (+105, DraftKings)
Kelley Joiner OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Justin Lockhart OVER 95.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Jackson Canaan OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards (-137, Caesars)